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I don't think anyone's mind will be changed unless Trump actually goes to jail. Not sure if this is just me, but I have found the details of these endless investigations and trials mind-numbingly boring ever since they started six or seven years ago, and cannot get through reading a single article or post about them without nodding off. If the Democrats haven't figured out a way to lock this man up by now, I doubt they ever will.
On a related note, I find the contrast between the apocalyptic way this election is being framed online and in the media and the complete apathy and disinterest I see in the real world to be the greatest in my lifetime. In 2016 and 2020 I could see people around me marching/organizing/rioting/etc. but this time around I've just seen the demonstrations for Palestine, which seem more like an impotent tantrum than something that risks spiraling into partisan violence on behalf of a party or candidate with a real chance of seizing power. Other than that most normies seem to be minding their own business, getting on with their lives, or else wandering around in a sort of haze as though they never quite recovered socially from covid lockdowns.
Blue tribe has been playing down the election because they don't want to think about how the prosecutions are clearly part of the election strategy.
Seeing Biden out on the campaign trail while Trump is forced to be in a courtroom under gag orders would trigger some cognitive dissonance.
Trump actually did some (useless) campaigning in New Jersey during these weeks.
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Retrospectively, it's worth a chuckle or two to look over year after year of newspaper headlines to the effect that it's really all up for Trump this time, he's going to have to resign any minute now, his career is over, etc., rinse, repeat.
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I think some people's minds will be changed by the headlines trumpeting "Trump convicted on all counts!"
Probably. But before the election there will be months of Trump walking around doing normal Trump things. And lots of people are under the impression that you get convicted and immediately dragged to prison. They'll equate him being out and about with the conviction having been overturned or no big deal or something.
If they don't jail him until the election, citing his attitude as reason to jail him even though it's a first offense.
The impression I'm getting is that standard practice in these sorts of cases is to grant bail pending appeal. So it's highly unlikely he goes to jail before the election even if he gets a prison sentence, as the inevitable appeals process will almost certainly not conclude before the election.
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I doubt it. They've treated him with kid gloves in the contempt of court procedures so far, fining him what were objectively pissant amounts for attacking the judge's family. He could easily be in jail already for contempt, and he's not, so I think they will be much too cowardly to jail him immediately. He's highly likely to remain free, even absent any appeals, until November.
The Merchan's daughter is working for a political consulting group raising money from Trump's trial. I.e., Merchan's family is profiting from this case. When Trump pointed out this conflict of interest, Merchan's response was to accuse Trump of attacking his family, gag order him, and then hold Trump in contempt for calling this unfair. This is decidedly not treating Trump with "kid gloves".
Why he was held in contempt is irrelevant to the point that he was held in contempt, and the penalties assessed for contempt of court were minuscule, to Trump. No effort was made to assess a penalty that would actually harm Trump, like multi-million dollar fines or imprisonment. That is kid gloves.
I'll make the point here that the judge was legally barred from fining Trump more than $1k for each instance of contempt. He could have jailed him, but he could not have levied multi million dollar fines.
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It goes directly to your false description and whether it was appropriate to even gag him in the first place.
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"We made up something you did wrong, but only punished you slightly" is not kid gloves. Kid gloves are when you punish people lightly for severe offenses.
Terminology aside: Wouldn't your argument imply that they will once again be too cowardly to harshly punish Trump on trumped up charges once we get to sentencing?
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If anyone could have their mind changed by the media about Trump, they would have done so already.
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It's certainly possible. I don't think many highly engaged people will change their minds - anyone arguing on the internet about this has already decided what they think. But the people paying basically no attention (a group Trump is doing very well with) could be influenced. I'll be very interested to see what the next batch of polls say.
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