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Culture War Roundup for the week of May 13, 2024

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The fertility problem continues to defy the desire to blame it on a political hobby horse. People try to draw correlation lines with feminism, secularism, diversity, urbanization, high cost of housing/education. To some extent, they succeed; those are all correlated with modernity. But look closely and you'll see outliers for your chosen culprit. Low fertility is hitting everyone regardless of regional particularities, just on a time lag of how deep they are in the boonies.

As I neurotically must bring up in every topic on fertility, the “Abraham Orthodox” (Amish, Haredi) have retained very high birth rates despite the latter living in the densest and most expensive part of the country and having very little money. What they do differently, and what others don’t do, is (1) make motherhood the only real female social value, and (2) train women at a young age to be mothers adept at homemaking tasks. My hobby horse comes out of this battle unscathed.

“Abraham Orthodox” (Amish, Haredi) have retained very high birth rates despite the latter living in the densest and most expensive part of the country and having very little money. What they do differently, and what others don’t do, is (1) make motherhood the only real female social value, and (2) train women at a young age to be mothers adept at homemaking tasks. My hobby horse comes out of this battle unscathed.

You'll notice that those two groups reject the "modern package" on the whole. They're fanatically religious and anti-materialist, restrict access to technologies like internet or television, have their own schools, hold themselves in insular communities apart from mainstream society, the works. You can point their tradwife policies in particular, but that's hardly an isolated variable.

I should say that I find women in the workplace the most tempting factor of those I listed. But. There are stridently feminist societies with relatively higher birthrates, and more traditionalist societies with relatively lower birthrates, so it doesn't make a full meal.

Mormons in the 2010's had a TFR of almost 3.5, and tradCaths today have a claimed TFR(yes, the internal data is not very good) of 3.6. Both of those groups use technology and the internet.

Yep.

The temptation is to assume its multicausal and there are several inputs all interacting at once to produce the outcome, and some countries have a different mix than others but on net it all puts downward pressure on fertility.

Even so, I FEEL as though there's probably some singular root cause that could be discovered. Discovering still doesn't mean we can address it effectively, though.

It would be really nice if we could figure out it was all because of something like leaded gasoline or cigarette smoke and keep on.

It being caused by a pollutant could definitely square with the fact the effect diffuses with population density, but then again everything does that.

But that seems unlikely given how widespread the problem is.

You're posting this on the wrong forum. The culprit has already been found. It's feminism, definitely couldn't be anything else.

Since I'm being (mis)quoted, I'd like to register the fact that unlike you seem to be implying, I also think feminism (and the sexual revolution in general) is a symptom and not a cause.

Placing the blame on modernity is more accurate. Though I see it as more of a general pattern human societies go through than anything unique to our era. Birth control, sexual liberation and population collapse have all happened before the modern era multiple times. Even arguably on a global scale.

But look closely and you'll see outliers for your chosen culprit.

And outliers to your outliers. There are high-fertility subgroups even in modernity-struck countries.

Personally I think the solution is pretty simple, just do this in reverse.