birb_cromble
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User ID: 3236
AI has been in the financial news a lot this last week, and the vibe shift feels like it might indicate a rotation out of the sector.
Coreweave is down 24% over the last five days, and its bonds briefly flirted with 16%. Other neoclouds like Nebius are taking similar poundings. Firmus, an Australian neocloud company, recently pulled its IPO offering from the Australian stock exchange after a tepid response from both institutional and private investors.
Farther down the stack, Nvidia and AMD are seeing fluctuations that might as well be noise, but Cerebras is having a bad time (down 35% this month).
Memory, represented by Samsung, Sk Hynix, and Micron, are seeing 15% or higher fluctuations over the week, but it's memory, and Koreans are involved, so who knows if that's even relevant.
With the exception of Oracle, hyperscalers are all seeing small 2.5%-3% hits to their stock prices. In contrast, SCHD, the most boring belt-and-suspenders ETF there is, is up almost exactly the same amount.
On the bond front, the Financial Times reports that Anthropic has secured a BB+ rating from KBRA, who issued the rating on incomplete financials that exclude free cash flow, and EBITDA. Kroll and Anthropic declined to comment for the story. The financial times also reports that Anthropic has privately issued a bond to Blackstone with a yield that exceeds 10% in order to secure a lease for Google TPUs.
On the consumer side, Accenture has announced a pullback on their token spend, with the default budget for employees now sitting at $29/month.
Anthropic itself (per The Information) has disclosed that 5-7% of its revenue comes from distillation attacks. This puts them in the unenviable position of having to choose between training their competition or hurting the top line number that's driving their IPO hype.
All together, this looks like the "smart money" is on its way out. Am I seeing an actual pattern here, or am I over fitting on noise?
If it's the former, where is the money actually going? I haven't figured that part out yet.
If it's the latter, how do you separate actual signal from noise in cases like this?
birb_cromble
3d ago
It's kind of a shame really. I love my PCC for plinking and I'm going to chop the barrel if the SBR changes hold.
birb_cromble
3d ago
Your instrument is out of tune because it signals earnest authenticity.
My instrument is out of tune because I suck.
We are not the same.
birb_cromble
3d ago
I'm not convinced most of their new guns (the PC and LC Carbines in particular) aren't subcontracted to a different manufacturer
I'm pretty sure the PC carbine is primarily made in house. The internals are almost identical to a scaled-up 10-22 takedown, with the exception of the tungsten insert in the bolt.
birb_cromble
4d ago
Spending is $379.94 less than this day last year. I had a very unexpected and expensive auto repair hit me this week. Thankfully I can handle it from cash flow and not dip into savings, but it's still a real kick in the balls, financially. Between that, medical, and home repairs, my big non-negotiable expenses this year have been a lot higher than last year.
birb_cromble
4d ago
Last week, a bar manager told me that they were leaving the machines in until they had to be gone, not because a couple days worth of the revenue would mean that much, but because the degenerates who played them would go to another bar that still had them, and might not come back.
I have some friends and relatives who are still working hospitality up PA, and their bars all jettisoned the skill games as soon as word came down about the ban for exactly the reason that your bar manager didn't. When ownership had them installed, it started attracting a new clientele that turned out to be deeply unprofitable compared to their usual guests. All three of them have used the term "like zombies" to describe the skill game crowd at one point or another.
The people who seem really upset about losing them are the gas stations.
birb_cromble
5d ago
I think part of the decline comes from how a lot of people stake their claims. When a poster declares that people who disagree with their stance are "low-g", "retards", or "barely sentient" straight from the jump, I generally don't care to engage. If somebody has already clearly expressed that they think dissenters are barely sentient retards, what are they expecting to get out of responses in the first place?
birb_cromble
5d ago
I think it's because the entire market runs on volatility these days. If you're looking for low beta, you're going to miss out on hype cycles.
birb_cromble
5d ago
SCHD and USMV, mostly, depending on what I can stomach when my scheduled contribution day comes up.
birb_cromble
7d ago
I write some genre fiction under a female pen name. One thing my partner constantly has to point out is that I focus entirely too much on events that are happening, rather than how the characters in the story feel about those events. There are a handful of things related to voice and psychology that also come up, but that's the big one.
birb_cromble
8d ago
We do have a rough historical comparison. When the CMP accidentally shipped a shitload of illegal SBRs to civilians, Congress actually got off its ass an amended the NFA to change the legal barrel length.
I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see a similar situation happen here
birb_cromble
8d ago
Other than the currency thing, it looks like the US is on a comparable track. Are we getting a preview of what could happen here?
birb_cromble
8d ago
I'm in a similar place - mid 40s, could theoretically retire today at my current lifestyle. The thing is, I actually like my job, and I'm not yet projecting a success rate where I actually feel comfortable making the plunge. Right now my plan is to keep working, and have "retire" in my back pocket in case I'm ever laid off.
birb_cromble
8d ago
It appears that the US bond market is not the only one having problems right now.
The French/German 10-year bond yield gap last week saw its biggest weekly jump in decades, while the gap between Italian and German yields hit almost 130 basis points (bps), posting its biggest weekly rise since the COVID-19 crisis.
I'll admit that my understanding of European economics are somewhat fuzzy. My mental model is that Germany pretty much is the EU economy, but as an American I'm pretty sure that's a function of my own biases.
Does anyone have any insight into what's going on here? Based on the article, the issue doesn't seem to be unique to France - it mentions elevated yields in Italy as well.
birb_cromble
11d ago
Spending is $2,146.10 less than the same day last year.
Future check-ins may be a bit spotty from me. The commentary here is declining, and I'd rather take a break than develop a bad opinion of the site.
birb_cromble
13d ago
It needs at least a Russet to run. I tried it on a red fingerling and it just didn't have the horsepower.
birb_cromble
13d ago
If you're going to hold the position that Byzantium wasn't Rome, and that Rome ended with Romulus Augustulus, then when did Byzantium start? Would you put it at the partition, at Rome's fall, or somewhere in between?
birb_cromble
13d ago
That's the one.
birb_cromble
14d ago
Maximus Thrax, but only because the whole story is hilarious.
My understanding is that your mortgage on your primary residence doesn't count, but "capital improvements" on your residence do count.
birb_cromble
14d ago
As somebody who had some incidental cult interactions in his 20s, this "cow question" isn't really selling me on any of the "it's not a cult" arguments. It's almost a perfect encapsulation of the shared secrets, humiliation, and blackmail collection that high control groups use to further ensnare members.
"Don't worry, we're all cow fuckers here" can turn into "you wouldn't want your employer to know about your opinions on cow fucking" real quick if somebody pisses off the leadership.
Maybe I'm applying my past experiences to a different situation, but if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and asks bizarre questions that carry future social consequences like a duck, maybe the duck is in a cult.
birb_cromble
14d ago
I recently watched a podcast episode in which DHH got to plug his new Omarchy Quattro. He seemed almost manic at times.
I think it's a little more than almost manic.
I have unlimited tokens. We can fix everything, we can do anything.
birb_cromble
15d ago
I wouldn't blame Yud for them anymore than I'd blame the Beatles for Charles Manson.
At least a few of the zizians took courses at CFAR, and their the root of their schism derives from arguments with Michael Vassar.
If we take your argument at face value, this is closer to a student of Paul McCartney going on a killing spree because he didn't like Paul's performance in Sergeant Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band.
birb_cromble
15d ago
I've been reading up more on the federal personal savings rate and it's a pretty interesting concept.
https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-saving-rate
The U.S. personal saving rate is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income. In other words, it's the percentage of people's incomes left after they pay taxes and spend money.
I haven't found an exact definition of what is included and what isn't, but that link is probably a good starting point.
Do you think it's a useful metric? On one hand, it's fairly coarse grained, but on the other hand, it seems like it's very difficult to game for exactly the same reason.
The fact that it's trending from a peak (excluding COVID) in the 1960s is interesting. I haven't found many explanations for why that is occuring. I've seen arguments that it's due to the real cost of living increasing faster than wages, and I've seen arguments that cheap debt and easy mobility make saving less important. I'm not sure if I believe either of them. I'd be interested in any other theories you might have.
Are you willing to make the same arguments about China? It hasn't exactly been loafing around doing nothing when it comes to Iran.
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