birb_cromble
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User ID: 3236
birb_cromble
6hr ago
I'll try to describe it in a way that's probably not 100% accurate, but simple enough to explain briefly. When you buy a share in a company, you do so because you believe that it will provide value back to you over time. Most commonly, this is done as either a dividend (traditionally) or as a share buyback (more common these days).
When you make that purchase, you have to decide how much you believe you'll get back, and how quickly you'll believe it'll happen. Deciding that can involve a lot of different factors. One easy one is to look at their revenue. A company that's earning ten billion dollars a year is more likely to pay back your investment quickly then a company earning a buck fifty a year.
Share price reflects that belief of ROI. Higher prices represent a confidence that the company will have a better payoff, and company valuation is usually a function of share price.
birb_cromble
6hr ago
One rule of thumb I've seen is 10x revenue. It seems to work fairly well in the general case.
birb_cromble
7hr ago
Morningstar is valuing SpaceX at around $780B. Do you think that's fair?
Just based on the S-1, I'd put it somewhere between $600B and $750B.
birb_cromble
7hr ago
Google is issuing new equity. A quick search suggests this is the first time they have done so since their IPO.
In the last eighteen months, we have seen Google go from funding their spending with cash flow, to issuing bonds, to issuing equity. Am I missing something here? It seems like a bigger deal than the news coverage would suggest.
birb_cromble
7hr ago
In a little good news, I don't need surgery on my shoulder.
I tried to go straight to a physical therapist on advice from some folks here. After an initial appointment he made some uncomfortable noises and told me to go to a specialist to see how bad the damage was. The specialist gave me a once over and said that I had multiple "adhesions" in the joint, then sent me back to the physical therapist.
The treatment is interesting so far - they're essentially re-injuring the joint so that it can heal properly. It hurts like hell, but it's a good hurt. My range of motion is already significantly better.
If you're dealing with chronic pain, maybe talk to a medical specialist about it. Sometimes it's fixable.
birb_cromble
8hr ago
Spending is $640.82 less than on this day last year. I have one more big ticket expense in July that might put me over the edge. For now I'm just going to try my best.
birb_cromble
1d ago
My internal model is that it's a threat, or a sign that he doesn't need to remain a US citizen like some mere peasant, bound to the land.
birb_cromble
1d ago
If you're holding a lot of QQQ, you might want to consider your risk tolerance.
birb_cromble
1d ago
Jokes about the right wing German tendency to flee to Argentina aside, I think it's entirely for economic reasons.
California has proposed a wealth tax recently, and I wouldn't be surprised if it went through.
birb_cromble
1d ago
There's definitely some fuckery afoot. The NASDAQ 100 is changing specifically to allow SpaceX to list early and the S&P is "considering it". The NASDAQ 100 specifically is pretty bad because they don't float adjust their holdings. On top of that, SpaceX has an unusual lockout structure that lets holders unload early.
Beyond that, the share voting structure is fairly unique. Musk holds a special share of stock that has 10x voting power, so you're never going to have input as a minority owner.
Per their S-1, SpaceX's only profitable line of business is starlink, and starlink may only be profitable because they're booking many of its costs to the rocket division. Even if they aren't, we're starting to see competition that will hurt those numbers. Their other lines of business are not profitable - xAI, in particular, is nothing but a highly efficient money incinerator at this point. One of their biggest revenue lines is renting hardware to Anthropic.
Altogether, this IPO looks almost custom-designed to leave excitable retail investors holding the bag.
birb_cromble
2d ago
What happened with UBS?
birb_cromble
3d ago
In that case, the gym is the customer, not you.
Cancellation being a ball-smashingly miserable experience for the end user is a feature, not a bug.
birb_cromble
3d ago
I have done some work with credit unions, and I never want to do it again. I think I legitimately spent 10x more time fighting with auditors than I did actually fixing their problems.
"Can your system fully attest X?"
"Not formally"
"Then we can't certify it."
"Can the existing system?"
"No."
"Then why is it allowed?"
"It was granted an exemption."
"Can I do that?"
"No."
birb_cromble
3d ago
Kevin Warsh has been sworn in as fed chair, and markets have been digesting his recent statements in an attempt to predict future movements in the federal funds rate.
What are your predictions on rate changes over the next year?
From my perspective, Warsh is in a tight spot. Inflation is stubbornly sitting above the 2% target, which would suggest a series of rate increases, culminating around 5.5 - 5.75%. Comments from major bond investors have said the same. Unfortunately, the debt to GDP ratio is high enough at this point that there may be a ceiling to how high he can go before the US starts seeing structural problems.
My prediction is that we'll see a single token rate increase this year, and the Fed will make excuses for why they don't go higher. Particularly, I believe that they will claim that most of the inflation is transient due to the Iran conflict, and that AI-driven productivity gains are inherently deflationary.
birb_cromble
3d ago
ACX book review competition
Maybe it's for the best. I've noticed, perhaps somewhat uncharitably, that the greater Scott-diaspora and larger rationalist community tend to treat writing as a sport, or even as a naked dominance exercise.
It's fascinating to read as a case study in rhetoric and status-jockeying, but it's also tiring after a while. We get it. You're smart. You're smarter than me. Your 160,000 word blog post on why mormons would have built superintelligent AI on the moon if it weren't for female empowerment and declining cultural notions of Asabiyyah has proven that you are a very smart and special boy. Good job. Now that you've scored your points, can we get back to the original goal of meeting in the middle and finding a truth that's greater than the ones we each hold?
If you've never read it, Neal Stephenson did an interview decades ago where he talked about the two classes of writer. It's worth a read.
birb_cromble
3d ago
I usually use submission grinder to start.
birb_cromble
3d ago
I don't know about furries, but my editor at the time told me that the "alternative erotica" market is basically 100% driven by women.
So far as I can tell, if you include literary works in the "porn" category, then the average female porn-consumer is faaar more degenerate than the average male.
It kinda blew my mind.
birb_cromble
3d ago
I suspect I need to just write more and edit less until later. At least that's advice I've heard about writing, but I'm not entirely convinced
My biggest weakness as an author is that I am convinced that my output is absolute dogshit. I've thrown out multiple novels that were over 70% finished because I was disgusted with the work. I'll end up in rewrite spirals and give up.
Lately, I've had a lot more success by Just Writing. I don't do anything but write forward until I have every major story beat on paper. Then and only then, do I allow myself to go back and rework things.
I don't think my main character has a sufficiently well-developed personality yet but I made a lot of progress on establishing him better by rewriting scenes over and over again until they felt more interesting.
I do this by doing two things:
- I write character sketches before starting for major characters. It's a pulp tool, but knowing a few things they'll always do, a few things they'll never do, the first thing you'd notice if you saw them, and the first thing you'd notice if you heard them helps a lot.
- If my main character starts driving the story off the rails? Well, then I have good character development and I need to change the story.
birb_cromble
3d ago
Just redneck shit
birb_cromble
3d ago
Graduating class was 216.
I was only there for a year and a half. In that time, we had four lethal overdoses, three suicides, six vehicle deaths (two accidents), one farm related fatality, one murder, and somewhere on the order of 30 pregnancies.
birb_cromble
4d ago
laws against introducing big cats for exotic game purposes.
I've always been a proponent of introducing breeding colonies of charismatic megafauna to the US. I actually brought it up to my house rep once, and I think he thought it was satire.
birb_cromble
4d ago
I don't know if there's a rule for lions, but elephants definitely have requirements in most countries.
Though I think that has less to do with humane harvesting and more with keeping the clients alive.
birb_cromble
4d ago
I don't know about birds, but conservationists in my neck of the woods are pretty concerned about migrating bats. Nobody knows exactly why, but it seems to be doing a real number on them.
I hope there's a solution. I love those little guys.
Not toast, but yeah, I've done some of that.
To be honest, pretty much any POS system is a POS. I swear that the people who design, code , build, and sell them have never actually worked in a restaurant. It's one of the most egregious examples of not understanding the customer I've ever seen. Aloha is particularly bad.
It's funny. This particular health scare is almost 30 years old. I didn't have health insurance at the time, so it healed wrong and has caused problems my whole life.
Apparently you can just... Fix some of it? That is, if you can afford it.
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