birb_cromble
No bio...
User ID: 3236
birb_cromble
5hr ago
If your friend bet the farm on one volatile stock, then yeah…
This is, in fact, what he did.
birb_cromble
8hr ago
This is illuminating. Thanks.
birb_cromble
11hr ago
Is your core belief that the individual capability of each player on the roster overwhelms coaching, coordination, and all the other intangibles?
I'm not looking to argue here - just to learn.
birb_cromble
11hr ago
When is the correct time to use leverage?
An acquaintance of mine has lost a shitload of money this last week on a 2x leveraged long NVDA ETF that he bought in August. It also seems like leverage is behind a lot of the volatility we're seeing in the KOSPI as well.
On the other hand, it really seems like Iike one of the few ways to beat the marker in the medium term.
birb_cromble
1d ago
Do you think that was ever true? I can't help but feel like Florida could have given the Lions a run for their money in 2008.
Other than that I'm not sure.
birb_cromble
3d ago
This was helpful. Thank you.
birb_cromble
3d ago
I am not an AI researcher, but I do wonder how an LLM could actually achieve stable RSI just based on the "recursive" and "self" parts of the acronym. If the model weights are being modified, how do you keep the evaluation of improvement from drifting with successive iterations? To a layman like me, it seems like the error rate would stack up faster than the model's ability to account for it.
birb_cromble
3d ago
Spending is $2,717.25 less than the same day last year.
birb_cromble
3d ago
If you're asking for an evaluation of fundamentals, my personal take is that Anthropic is either a 500 billion dollar company that needs a 15% discount for a hostile governance structure (if I'm charitable about the upcoming spending obligations), or it's a $0 company (if I am not charitable about the upcoming spending obligations). Either way, it doesn't support the share price they're asking. I will personally probably wait until Q4 financials come out before I even consider buying shares.
That said, fundamentals haven't mattered in the US stock market since 2022. It'll probably pump until at least 2H 2027 on pure, unadulterated FOMO and Narrative manipulation. If you're the kind of person who's into that kind of trading, go forth, take risks, and get rich.
birb_cromble
7d ago
It's been a choppy week for the markets, with the last five days seeing the S&P 500 decline by 3%, the NASDAQ 100 decline by 5.6%, and the DJIA decline by 1.4%.
Internationally, the KOSPI tripped its circuit breakers again, and has fallen 10.2% in the last five days. Japan isn't doing great either.
At the same time, all hell has broken loose in Paraguay due to a bank failure, which is probably unrelated.
Do you think we're looking at a meabingful correction here, or just some jitters?
birb_cromble
10d ago
That may legitimately be the best political ad I've seen since Christine O'Donnell had to publicly proclaim that she wasn't a witch.
I came in here looking for you, specifically. For the last few months, I've felt like I've been staring into an alternate reality whenever I post here. The modal response to most posts about the economy can be boiled down to:
- The economy is great.
- It's your fault you didn't invest $500,000 in the S&P 500 in 2008, after the crash.
- You're stupid for not having a 20% down payment available for a house in 2011.
- Only a barely sentient retard who fell for a Chinese psy op would have any reason to oppose data centers.
- Only someone who is low-human-capital would suggest that CPI Inflation data is not capturing a useful snapshot of price pressure on the average American.
The zeitgeist here directly contradicted what I was hearing on the ground in the four states where I spend time. I put a lot of effort into figuring out if I was in a bubble, or if the people here were.
These election results are a stark reminder that motte posters are not a representative sample of the broader US population.
birb_cromble
10d ago
Spending is $2,113.15 less than the same day last year. I'm back on track.
birb_cromble
12d ago
Lisa Murkowski is pushing 70. I know politicians are getting older, but even still, she doesn't have much of a political career left just by life expectancy.
birb_cromble
13d ago
Personally, I don't think the leadership of Anthropic could take a shit without Claude telling them how to wipe.
birb_cromble
13d ago
Anthropic is in an interesting place right now.
I believe they must wait 15 days to IPO after the public filing of the S-1. They must also include financial data from within 134 days of the filing. They can, however, file an amended S-1 during that 15 day period without resetting the clock. There is a one day (if my math is right) window for them to do that. It's either world class financial engineering or a hell of a coincidence.
birb_cromble
14d ago
I actually plan to suffer through using Treasury Direct this week and buy some.
birb_cromble
14d ago
This weeks roundup:
The Fed has decided to hold at 3.75-4.00%, despite inflation rates remaining over target. Two votes dissented. Official communication indicates that more data is needed before another increase, while critics argue that the hold is due to political pressure around the upcoming election this week.
The Fed seems like they're stuck in a tight spot, if you believe the thesis that inflation is currently being driven by policy choices that are independent of interest rates.
[https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2130357/000162828026067168/anthropicpbc-sx1.htm](Anthropic has disclosed its S-1 to the public). Reporting has been highly variedso far, with something akin to Scott Adams' "two screens" metaphor happening. Bulls are focusing entirely on operating income and claiming that accounting losses on convertible notes are immaterial. Bears are focusing on a noteworthy lack of Q3 data.
Personally, I am not particularly impressed. But I'm very interested in bullish takes that don't involve the phrases "recursive self improvement" or "super intelligence".
Tech stocks stumbled this week as investors have grown anxious about cash flow. Google and Amazon, in particular, saw dips. Whether this anxiety persists remains to be seen.
birb_cromble
15d ago
snoot their cock
I'm sorry, but what?
birb_cromble
16d ago
(and he should)
Why do you say that?
birb_cromble
17d ago
Spending this year is $996.11 lower than this time last year. It's not as good as I'd hoped for at this point due to home repairs, vehicle repairs, and medical bills. On the other hand, I'm consoling myself with the fact that I'm still managing to save 38% of my take home pay, after tax, insurance, 401(K), and HSA deductions. That's not awful.
birb_cromble
21d ago
Target date funds get a lot of attention in retirement planning, but many financial planners suggest that the recent underperformance of bonds relative to equities make their glide paths too conservative.
What is your opinion on that kind of one stop shop for retirement?
Ignoring the fact that many corporate plans only offer a TDF, they seem like they're great for the average saver who might otherwise choose to do nothing. I've split the difference and contribute to one in my 401(k), but selected a date farther into the future than the one that most closely matches my retirement date.
birb_cromble
24d ago
Spending is $861.64 less than the same day last year. Slowly getting back on track.
birb_cromble
28d ago
Are you willing to make the same arguments about China? It hasn't exactly been loafing around doing nothing when it comes to Iran.
I don't pretend to understand the secret heart of a man.
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