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NunoSempere  6mo ago (forecasting.substack.com)   1179 thread views

The State of Forecasting: Dynamics, Challenges, Hopes

forecasting.substack.com

In short…

  • Forecasting platforms and prediction markets are partially making the pie bigger together, and partially undercutting each other.
  • The forecasting ecosystem adjusted after the loss of plentiful FTX money.
  • Dustin Moskovitz’s foundation (Open Philanthropy) is increasing their presence in the forecasting space, but my sense is that chasing its funding can sometimes be a bad move.
  • As AI systems improve, they become more relevant for judgmental forecasting practice.
  • Betting with real money is still frowned upon by the US powers that be–but the US isn’t willing to institute the oversight regime that would keep people from making bets over the internet in practice.
  • Forecasting hasn’t taken over the world yet, but I’m hoping that as people try out different iterations, someone will find a formula to produce lots of value in a way that scales.
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in practice you don't need 99.9, you need better than alternatives in at least some cases.

Agreed. And thus I strongly support prediction markets as a concept for making personal decisions, hedging risks, and predicting important events.

Just noticing that centralized prediction markets are yet another sort of institution that can be captured and/or sabotaged if they become important to guiding/controlling society.

Would really hope we have robust competition between them to ensure no player ever becomes fully dominant in the space.

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