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Because I was called out for being too late with my nothingburger prediction before I'll make sure to get it in early this time around.
Nowhere. In. Two. Weeks.
Nothingburger predictions work most of the time. But when they're wrong, they can be very wrong. That's why there's no alpha in making them. In terms of options trading, it's called picking up pennies in front of steamrollers.
(But yeah, you're probably right).
Nothingburger predictions are why I didn't believe the western intelligence community's claim that a Russian invasion of Ukraine was imminent. You can find similar claims of imminent invasion going all the way back to the annexation of Crimea, with nothing to show for it. The intelligence community has successfully predicted 8 of the last 1 Russian invasions.
Can you show evidence that the US IC warned of a Russian invasion where nothing happened?
Sometimes, warnings being deemed legit depends on the threat actor actually following through. Putin could have backed off at the last moment. People like you would then call the warnings fake news, but the intent and preparation and potential was there.
In fact, that was the goal of the US: share enough (unprecedented) intel that Putin would decide to change his mind. If US foreign policy had been more successful, you would call that an intel failure, when actually it would be about the most successful intelligence can be.
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