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PaperclipPerfector  7mo ago (text post)   3615 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for April 7, 2024

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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How much more deadly would it be than COVID?

No one knows yet, but 30-50% death rate has been mooted.

Heard the same claim about covid at the end of 2019. Fool me once...

So the Black Death, which was a catastrophe but didn’t cause civilizational collapse.

For the record, I don’t believe this report without much better evidence.

Even 30% is major unpredictable transformation of society level, I think investment advice is hard in that scenario.

Yes, there wouldn't be a recognizable civilization left. Guess those without land where they can be self sufficient are screwed in that case.

Apparently it primarily affects children and young people. Older people above 50 are very rarely killed (just like Spanish flu). I think in that case civilization would probably survive since that leaves the people who are primarily in charge and can maintain things for a couple more decades. Obviously losing so many young people would radically transform many social dynamics. I think total collapse likely needs in excess of 80-90% mortality rate.

The problem is that medium ground where things can change in unpredictable ways but it isn’t the end of the world.

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