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Damn Firefox ate my reply...
So, by "inexperienced" I assume the knife guy has used the knife to camp with and the bat guy has used the bat to play baseball with, but neither has ever been in a fight. I would expect the bat guy to start out in a batting stance and the knife guy to try and slice his opponent.
If both are equally stupid, the bat guy is more likely to win: the knife guy will try to slice at the bat guy and will eat a solid whack from the bat.
If both are equally smart, my bet is on the knife guy: he realizes that he has to close the distance and stab the bat guy in the gut once and then just tire him out. The bat guy understands that a two-handed swing can miss and if the knife guy feints an attack, he won't be able to recover from a swing quickly enough. If the bat guy switches to a one-handed stance, the bat is not a sword or a spear, the knife guy can eat a glancing blow from a bat and close the distance, can tire the bat guy out by retreating (since the arena is not enclosed) and actually grab the bat when the swings slow down, etc.
Now, an experienced knife fighter vs an experienced quarterstaff fighter in an open arena is a much more different matchup. A quarterstaff is longer than a bat, much more balanced and surprisingly nimble, the knife guy is likely to be stopped by a quick thrust every time to tries to close the distance, and if he doesn't he's going to eat these thrusts anyway. Like properly executed jabs in boxing, they always connect.
A man-sized target?
A man-sized target that doesn't want to be hit.
The local maximum of "not getting hit with a bat" is "don't approach".
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That's meant to be inexperienced in fighting.
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