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PaperclipPerfector  8mo ago (text post)   981 thread views

Transnational Thursday for February 29, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Do you think any new countries will become independent in the next twenty or so years?

Apart from official recognition of areas that are already de facto independent, like Somaliland, Kosovo, Taiwan, etc. there is a possibility of an East African Federation forming in the next few years as a political union of up to seven currently separate countries. There are a few Pacific islands that have a chance at formal independence as well, including Chuuk (from Micronesia) and Bougainville (from Papua New Guinea), and Yemen and Libya would also probably be better off each splitting into two countries to avoid prolonging their current civil wars indefinitely.

What is the base rate? How many become independent since 2004? What happened in previous 20 year spans?

What counts as independence? For example, would you count farce in east of Ukraine to be counting as new independent states briefly appearing?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_date_of_formation is not ideal but decent starting point.

Would Somaliland count?

Hummm...that is a good question. I suppose there might be further fracturing of existing state structures in world areas where there is ongoing conflict. There are a lot of those areas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts So I would say I'm 80/20 on there being a new country in the next 20 years at some point.

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