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I tried estimating this another way -- 32.1 crude death rate from drug overdoses in the 12 months ending 1Q2023 (last data available) divided by 944.1 crude death rate from all causes in the same period. The result is 3.4%, so your estimate checks out. Assuming nothing changes, of course.
Among other things, as with COVID, one change will be killing off those likely to be addicted. As the easily addicted die faster than they are born, we'll start to run out.
I would be not so sure. I listened to some podcast where they had good data which supported a dysgenic effect thesis which boiled down to the fact, that getting pregnant is in modern times just another one of larger cluster of female risky behaviors ranging from having many sexual partners, having unprotected sex, being more prone to substance abuse etc. Remember, all it takes for evolution is for people to reproduce. It is "perfectly okay" from evolutionary perspective to have mother of three overdosing in her early twenties only for her offspring taken care for by welfare state to likely face similar fate.
The vast majority of overdose deaths are between 25-54, and the highest rates are between 35-54. In the same way that Covid didn't necessarily improve the overall health of the population, but it killed off so many immune-compromised or aged people that if we got a new similar disease it would have a lower death rate because the dead wood has cleared out. Eventually we're going to be killing off addicts faster than we are producing new ones, even if the overall rate of addicts doesn't change.
Why? If addicts reproduce faster than the rest of the population before they die due to OD, and if addiction is heritable, then we will in fact not be killing the addicts off faster than we are producing new ones. That is my argument: susceptibility to addiction is related to overall susceptibility to impulsive behavior including things like having unprotected sex, forgetting to take pills and other risky behavior related to fertility.
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