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Notes -
Good write-up.
It should be noted that this includes a lot of intra Europe migration, it's not just refugees from Africa and the middle east/central Asia.
A complicating factor is that Social democrats (S) still stand to lose more voters to the Sweden Democrats (SD) than they do to Nyans. We have to remember here that S lost over two whole percentage points of voters to SD, while nyans got 0.44% of voters that may or may not have voted for S before. When the journalist Niklas Orrenius investigated the party and it's voters many claimed that they were choosing between Nyans and SD, implying that they were mostly protest voting in areas with very low voter participation.
Nyans is a heavily controversial party even among Muslim immigrants. Perhaps they can reform themselves like SD but I find that unlikely. Perhaps another party with a similar platform but with less controversial candidates will be formed, if so that would be a much bigger threat.
I would imagine that the left wing party (V) would be the primary destination of voters dissatisfied with S if they move rightwards on immigration and social issues. I furthermore predict that V will try to outflank Nyans on the issues they promote if they have continued relevance.
Very true, 26.3% of people having foreign background does not equal 26.3% muslim population. On the same Statistics Sweden page I linked in your quote, foreign-born people are further stratified by region of birth, and out of approximately 1 000 000 people, almost half were born in a European country, just to give an example. And naturally, being a muslim voter does not equal being a Nuance voter.
I see, I don't have much insight into voter attitudes beyond what polls and Swedish mainstream media tells me (and I have very low trust in their ability to gauge opinion in an unbiased way).
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I'm sorry... Nyans? XD Is there a meme behind that or is it just that they sound similar? I have to know!
The "Nuance Party" is written as "Partiet Nyans" in Swedish.
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Yeah, two things that frequently don't seem to be that well understood when discussing immigration statistics in various European countries and European vote are:
When a country like Sweden, say, has 26,3 % of its people being of foreign origin, it doesn't mean they're all Muslim or outside of Europe (I've frequently seen people make the assumption that this would be the case). Traditionally, the biggest community of immigrants in Sweden were the Finns, though this has changed in recent decades. Coincidentally, Sweden-Finns have generally, from what I've been understood, been considered a voter block for SD, which is easy for me to partially confirm just by checking the comments on SD's Facebook page and seeing all the Finnish-surname commentators praising the party.
While immigrants outside of Europe tend to vote for left parties (particularly the Social Democrats - further-left parties just generally are too woke to attract considerable support), a large portion of them simply does not vote at all, making the immigrants much less of a "vote bank" for the left than many seem to assume. I'd imagine that many Nyans voters come from this section.
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