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Notes -
I think there is an active media psyop when it comes to German-US relations that aims to hide or obscure that there is substantial mistrust between the two. How quickly did the people forget about this https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-security-agency-spied-merkel-other-top-european-officials-through-danish-2021-05-30/
Post-war Germany is allowed to prosper economically and have a semblance of independent foreign relations, but always within limits that the Americans set. When they exceed these limits (as in the case of Nordstream 2 or trying to negotiate a peace in Ukraine through the now forgotten Minsk processes), the US has many open or covert ways to correct the course.
Who knows if the Americans did this pipeline leak? But it certainly benefits them and wouldn’t be that unprecedented.
No one forgot, since those are the same period revealed by the Snowden leaks, the Germans just stopped trying to make an issue of Americans spying on Merkel as a breach of trust or friendly relations when someone leaked information that the Germans had been doing the same on other European allies and partners hand-in-hand with the US for years, so Merkel's protests were a little hypocritical.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/30/germany-spied-on-european-partners-on-behalf-of-us-for-years
The previous German government was a wee bit preoccupied with other events at the time- the European migration crisis, the rise of the right in Europe, and Crimea amoung them- and once the effort to get into the FVEY alliance failed, the German government didn't have much reason to keep re-elevating the topic when their own sins would be very easily revealed as well.
In normal parlance, this is called 'lobbying' and 'diplomacy.' If you'd like the publicly-facing website of how the Germans do it in reverse, their website is below. https://www.germany.info/us-en
The reason the Minsk process was forgotten is that the Russians and the German/French-backed Ukrainians had divergent interpretations. When Russia gave up the effort of having the Germans and French back its interpretation of Minsk- which would have functionally broken Ukraine as a unified state due to the special status and veto rights to be given to the Russian-backed parts- there was no use for it. In so much that the US had a role in the failure of the Minsk proposal, it was in backing either the Germans or the French or both, not in overruling them.
Lots of things benefit the Americans, which certainly wouldn't be without precedent, but this is a pretty vague and unspecific note. The US isn't exactly known for doing direct actions on treaty-ally infrastructure, though, but then that's not what you're claiming so shrugs.
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Anyone surprised that one country's security apparatus was spying on the communications of another country's leaders is not mature enough to be in any position of power. Even if the two countries are friendly.
She wasn't surprised. She had to act surprised- be shocked, shocked that an ostensibly friendly government is spying on hers.
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You're entirely relying on FUD. These two things aren't equivalent, and unless you have a good reason to believe that the US is seriously upset with Germany, why would you assume we'd pull something like this? What's so serious about Nordstream that we'd "need" to risk a huge PR backlash and shut it down violently?
If things get tough for Germany, it's a big temptation for them. Doesn't cost you anything to take it off the table.
What risk? Why would there be any backlash?
It does cost!
That state-actor diplomacy is going to have opinions if evidence gets out that the US is actively blowing up Russian investments. We don't need to give Russia any more reason for saber rattling, and we don't want to give the German domestic politics any reason to give more slack to Russia.
That's aside from the potential gas-price consequences from any reduction in supply. Actions taken by Biden are going to be viewed, in a midterm year, as the exclusive cause if (when) prices go up again.
You just gave them the pretext to blow up the North sea pipelines that supply quite a lot of gas to EU,though.
Breaking precedents hath its consequences.
I will maintain that no, we didn't.
Please do prove me wrong if you can find anyone more reliable than he said/she said Twitter.
Potus swearing that it's going to be wrecked, not enough?
I assume you mean this quote?
Alright, that’s stronger than I expected to see. Still not a claim of responsibility or a smoking gun, but I guess it does make it more likely.
The official WH transcript is here https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/07/remarks-by-president-biden-and-chancellor-scholz-of-the-federal-republic-of-germany-at-press-conference/ and I assume not literally lying (although they use two spaces after a full stop so who knows what other humanitarian disasters they support).
When specifically pressed, Scholz does not say he will shut down Nord Stream, only that the US and Germany will be united. As for not explicitly saying it, Sholz openly and repeatedly says he wants ambiguity. (As comparison, Biden is Biden and Bidens it by saying exactly what he thinks.)
Everything below here is a quote.
Q Thank you, Mr. President. And thank you, Chancellor Scholz. Mr. President, I have wanted to ask you about this Nord Stream project that you’ve long opposed. You didn’t mention it just now by name, nor did Chancellor Scholz. Did you receive assurances from Chancellor Scholz today that Germany will, in fact, pull the plug on this project if Russia invades Ukraine? And did you discuss what the definition of “invasion” could be?
And then, Chancellor Scholz:
(Speaks German.) (As interpreted.) If I may ask you, Chancellor Scholz — you said there was some strategic ambiguity that was needed in terms of sanctions. I just wanted to know whether the sanctions you are envisaging and the EU is working on — and the U.S. as well — are already finished, finalized, or is there still work ongoing?
And you’re not really saying what the details are. Is that just an excuse for Germany, maybe, to not support the SWIFT measures?
PRESIDENT BIDEN: The first question first. If Germany — if Russia invades — that means tanks or troops crossing the — the border of Ukraine again — then there will be — we — there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.
Q But how will you — how will you do that exactly, since the project and control of the project is within Germany’s control?
PRESIDENT BIDEN: We will — I promise you, we’ll be able to do it.
CHANCELLOR SCHOLZ: (As interpreted.) Thank you very much for your question. I want to be absolutely clear: We have intensively prepared everything to be ready with the necessary sanctions if there is a military aggression against Ukraine.
And this is necessary. It is necessary that we do this in advance so that Russia can clearly understand that these are far-reaching, severe measures.
It is part of this process that we do not spell out everything in public because Russia could understand that there might be even more to come. And, at the same time, it is very clear we are well prepared with far-reaching measures. We will take these measures together with our Allies, with our partners, with the U.S., and we will take all necessary steps. You can be sure that there won’t be any measures in which we have a differing approach. We will act together jointly.
(Speaks in English.) And possibly this is a good idea to say to our American friends: We will be united, we will act together, and we will take all the necessary steps. And all the necessary steps will be done by all of us together.
Q And will you commit today — will you commit today to turning off and pulling the plug on Nord Stream 2? You didn’t mention it, and you haven’t mentioned it.
CHANCELLOR SCHOLZ: As I’ve already said, we are acting together, we are absolutely united, and we will not be taking different steps. We will do the same steps, and they will be very, very hard to Russia, and they should understand.
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This is silly. His argument is obvious - you did it first, so they can now do it too. You can't dismiss it with a simple "nuh-uh".
Also, there are no reliable people on these matters, because everyone just pushes their interest.
His argument is fine if and only if we actually did bomb the pipelines. I’m expressing my disbelief in that premise.
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First, they have to be able to pin it on you, which right off the bat is doubtful.
Then, they have to go through their own calculus of whether going public with it will bring them anything, which I doubt again. A few headlines, that no one will remember in a few years, are not going to rebuild your pipeline.
As for the rest, I really don't see how that amounts to much. Russia saber rattling is to US advantage, the opinions anyone else don't matter much, and the NS pipelines will have 0 impact on energy prices in the US, at least in the short term.
This isn't a fucking court of law.
They don't need to 'pin it on you'. They only need to know they didn't do it themselves to get really pissed off. This was way beyond petty sabotage, delivering fairly big bombs to a precise spot on the seabed requires a navy or an extremely foolhardy private company.
I know it's not a court of law, but if you're the Germans, and you know you didn't do it, but the Russians are pointing at the Americans, and the Americans at the Russians, who do you get pissed off at?
The ones who had motivation to blow it up. Russians control one end of it, Germans control the other. They have no reason to blow it up because they control the pumping stations.
Ukraine or USA has reason to blow it up and doesn't control the pumping stations.
Ok, I think the conversation went a bit off track.
The original question was why would it be risky for the US to blow it up? My opinion is Biden could basically call Scholz and say "I hope none of your folks are working on these pipelines of yours, because we're blowing them up tomorrow".
If the Germans know who did it, even if they are explicitly told (but off record), what can they do about it?
By the way, what do you make of the theory that it could be the Germans themselves? Turning the pipeline back on would be the obvious demand of any winter-time protestors, and now they can say "gosh darn it, we'd love to, but someone blew both of them up!"
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It's called diplomacy and it's ten-thousand years old.
Diplomacy is aimed at other state actors, media psyops are aimed at the public. They're pretty old too, but we pretend they don't exist in liberal democracies.
Diplomacy has always been a performance.
Yes, but what Pasha is describing is not diplomacy.
Germany and America not making a public display out of their misgivings for each other is quintessential diplomacy.
We're talking about the media conveniently ignoring things that are already on public record, and go against the prevailing narrative. What America and Germany say, or don't say to each other is not relevant to the question.
Mainstream news media takes its foreign policy cues from the Government as a matter of state cohesion and security. If you want to call that a psyop then fine, but it's also the way the world has worked for centuries.
Strange discussion overall. Everyone is in agreement about the "territory" other than the fact that people really seem to dislike the use of word psyop as the "map".
Yes I am sure this sort of thing has been going on since forever. Doesn't mean it is not a psyop.
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I guess it's one of those Schrödinger's Conspiracy Theories.
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The outrage about this always perplexed me. Countries spy on other countries, even allied ones. The US just happens to be better at it than, say, France who was surprised at Australia changing its mind and purchasing Anglo subs instead of Franch ones, and at Moscow invading Ukraine.
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