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Hey, I found the problem!
I like the overall structure of your post, but I think it relies on several shaky assumptions. First, does the shortage of recruits actually represent Red Tribe disenfranchisement? Second, are “American Elites” responsible?
First and foremost, I think you’re overselling the demographic shift. The rates of enlisted army service are pretty similar between ethnicities. Enlisting in the army is less popular in general, and there are more minorities now than in 2010, so it’s easy for white representation to go down.
The effect is definitely stronger for women, as the national sex ratio didn’t really change. But it’s still an overwhelmingly masculine profession, with 15% women instead of 13%. So there are definitely a few more women, especially in officer positions, which could potentially shift the culture. To be honest, I have no idea which populations send the most women to the army; I’d assume them to be more Red Tribe than the national average, but I have no data to back it up.
2010 was the peak for a lot of military stats. The most active duty personnel, highest percent male, most men and women enlisted, and so on. But why? This wasn’t 2002. None of the rallying flags were present, and national politics were as bitter as they could get pre-Trump.
I think @2rafa has the general thrust of it. Enlisting is an employer of last resort. There were a lot more people at their last resorts in 2008-2012, a lot of people who really needed a competitive paycheck and a comprehensive insurance policy. In 2024, that’s not necessarily the case. We’re coming off a couple years of COVID distortions and zero-interest-rate phenomena. That has a way of making boot camp less appealing. I would expect the entry wage—relative to inflation—to matter more than the current President or the percent of minorities.
So if 2010 was an unusually good time to join the infantry, and 2024 isn’t, are we really seeing a calculated move by “American elites”? Are they making a move at all? The actions that would fix military recruitment involve tight money, austerity, or general economic stress. If those things are coming, I expect there will be bigger fish to fry.
Numbers from the 2022 demographic report.
I've got no hard data, at least none that self-respecting academic would accept as valid, but anecdotally the stretch from 2008 to 2012 saw a significant shift in the culture surrounding retention with all the "Perform To Serve" bullshit coming to a peak around that time. 2010 being the peak definitely fits a vibe.
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The marines- historically the most right wing branch of the military- being the only branch that hit their recruitment goals surely gestures at that being part of it, at least, although I'll agree that rapidly rising blue collar civilian wages getting to whites first is probably a bigger factor.
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You can delete the post, finish composition, and then undelete it.
I was actually worried that my delete button had become an admin option, so I erred on the side of transparency. Ah well.
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My first post here after being exiled from Reddit and having a long sabbatical from online commentary. I originally wanted to do it when I saw the response to an even earlier Army Ad with Johnathan Majors (it seems to have been removed, likely because of the rumors of him being a domestic abuser) and was shocked at the comments, it basically read as a /pol/ thread and the dislike bar was 9/10 negative.
Digging a little further an anti-war sentiment seemed to have spread among American conservatives with me first noticing then and there. It seems like a total flip from the 00s where being a Republican meant being pro-military no matter what. Veterans was almost a fetish to rally around, politically, from what I recall.
Right, there has definitely been a shift since the GWoT. I’m inclined to believe that it owes more to how Afghanistan played out, plus the overall economic trends post-2008, than it does elite decisions.
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