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Notes -
IMO the most convincing argument (and what I think SCOTUS is most likely to base its decision on) is that section 3 disqualification, specifically, is not self-executing under section 5, and that some specific action (legislation?) by Congress is necessary to invoke it, which has not happened in this case.
On the other hand, I doubt a partisan Congress (maybe even a single house) passing a simple-majority resolution that "[X] is disqualified from seeking office under the Fourteenth Amendment" really should be sufficient either.
Section 5 has a bunch of parallels in other amendments—it would be weird if that meant that slavery was effectively legal unless Congress passed legislation, under the 13th amendment. I don't find that terribly convincing.
I think the best case is just that what Trump did didn't rise to that level, but I don't know that that works out legally the right way for SCOTUS to rule on. I also wouldn't be shocked if they argued that one of the former acts suspending it like the one in 1872 applies to modern cases too. Maybe the officers one, but that seems tenuous to me, since it sounds like the people at the time generally agreed that the presidency was an office, from what I've heard.
As I said elsewhere, I hope Congress just suspends this whole contentious clause in this and all other cases, because once the Supreme Court rules, as soon as there's a clear standard, everyone will be trying to shoehorn their political opponents into that standard, across the board, not just Trump.
In fairness functionally other sections of the 14th amendment were not enforced until the Civil Rights Act a century later, whether or not that was legally reasonable or what the lawmakers intended.
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The "not self-executing" argument is the same as the "requires a conviction" one; a conviction under 18 U.S. Code § 2383 would disqualify Trump.
A difference would still lie in whether Congress alone can disqualify a candidate without the involvement of the judiciary, given that they don't have the power to pass bills of attainder.
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That wouldn't make sense under the text of section three, specifically, "but Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability." If section three required congressional action, then congress would only need a simple majority of each house, since they could just amend the law or pass a special resolution.
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