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PaperclipPerfector  11mo ago (text post)   1288 thread views

Transnational Thursday for December 28, 2023

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Argentina

Milei has rapidly kicked into high gear, firing 5000 employees hired last year and signing a massive deregulation package via a “Decree of Necessity and Urgency”. The DNU contains 300 separate reforms on regulations and initiates the privatization of several government ministries, here’s a taste:

Prepare all state-owned companies to be privatized

Authorize the shareholder control of Aerolineas Argentinas to be partly or completely transferred to private parties

Deregulate satellite Internet services to allow SpaceX’s Starlink to operate in Argentina

Eliminate price controls on prepaid healthcare plans

Eliminate the monopoly of tourism agencies to deregulate the sector

Repeal the current Rent Law that limits price increases in a bid to normalize the real estate market

Repeal the current Land Law that limits ownership of land by foreigners in a bid to promote investments

Scrap the current Supply Law that allows the government to set minimum and maximum prices and profit margins for goods and services of private companies

Eliminate the Economy Ministry’s price observatory to “avoid the persecution of companies”

He's also proposed some other interesting, less libertarian ideas, like a cap and trade system, and has left the welfare system much less touched than everything else (he actually doubled payments, though my understanding is this will make them more or less the same following the recent devaluation). There are apparently some questions about whether the massive DNU is even legal, but it’ll only be overturned in both chambers of Congress vote to reject it, though stuff can and will also be challenged in courts. Since Milei’s own party is a small minority, his ability to push any legislation through Congress depends on almost all of the center right Juntos por el Cambio working together with him. Many of them have reservations botyh about him and about this omnibus, so between the legal battles and legislative holdouts it’s far from given that this will become actual policy. The IMF is apparently into it though, so if passed maybe it would raise the chances they’ll give Argentina another loan, probably necessary if they actually want to dollarize.

Milei had promised retaliation against protests that interfered with traffic, but fortunately the protests seem to have happened without major clash between law enforcement and civilians. Now that Milei has unveiled more sweeping measures, unions are discussing nationwide strikes.

Israel and Palestine

The conflicts continues to rage on, with Israel conducting raids both into the West Bank and into refugee camps in Gaza. The flareups on the northern border with Lebanon have worsened as well, with Hezbollah stepping up attacks and Israel having by now evacuated at least 42 settlements worth thousands of people. Israel is now conducting air raids into southerly Lebanese towns and insisting that Hezbollah withdraw thirty miles away from the border.

Major media, or at least the stuff in my diet, feels like it has been increasingly critical of Israel’s role in the conflict. The NYTimes released an investigation claiming that Israel not only routinely attacked the “safe” areas they instructed civilians to cluster inside, but that they used 2000 pound bombs, among the most destructive in their traditional (non-nuclear obviously) arsenal. These bombs were provided by the US, which is continuing to ship them up even now, though apparently they are shifting to sending more small munitions.

Wapo also recently realized a visual review measuring buildings destroyed, demonstrating that the destruction of Gaza has outpaced the bombing campaigns of Aleppo, Mosul, and Raqqa. The death toll from the current conflict is still lower than the other three (20k in Gaza vs 50k in Aleppo out of roughly 2 million people in both areas), but the previous campaigns lasted much longer - at the current rate the death toll from this war could easily exceed the others.

I wonder why places where people live are called "towns" in Lebanon but "settlements" in Israel.

insisting that Hezbollah withdraw thirty miles away from the border.

Actually I think this is a mistake here - 30 km or 18 miles. This is not a random number - that's where the Litani river is - and by UN Security Council Resolution 1701, Hezbollah is not supposed to have any military presence south of Litani. Of course, Hezbollah has been blatantly ignoring it all the way since 2006, but now Israel is insisting on finally implementing this decision.

20k in Gaza

It is important to note here that the only source for this data is Hamas, these numbers are not verifiable outside Hamas, and people giving those numbers are the same people that told us there were over 500 casualties from an Islamic Jihad rocket falling on Al Ahli hospital (they said it was Israeli attack) which was a complete fabrication. Moreover, they declared the number within less than a day (which would be utterly impossible if they actually counted anything). Given that absolutely no identity information is disclosed about any of the supposedly deceased (except Hamas terrorists high profile enough to deserve official acknowledgment when they are eliminated) - not that, again, it'd be possible to verify that information outside Hamas - a smart person would consider these numbers with enormous amount of skepticism. The real number is probably around 10x less.

Actually I think this is a mistake here - 30 km or 18 miles. This is not a random number - that's where the Litani river is - and by UN Security Council Resolution 1701, Hezbollah is not supposed to have any military presence south of Litani.

Ah thanks for the correction.

It is important to note here that the only source for this data is Hamas, these numbers are not verifiable outside Hamas

I think that's why the study went with 'buildings destroyed" rather than casualties, since it's easier to verify externally. Given the rapid rate of bombing relative to Allepo, etc, I think saying less than half that bodycount has been produced doesn't seem like a wildly exaggerated number.

An Israeli military spokesperson earlier this month was saying probably about 5000 militants killed, with twice as many civilians killed for a total of around 15,000. Since the conflict hasn't stopped since then around 20k seems like about what both sides figure.

I'm sure Hamas lies and they obviously lied about the hospital explosion, and its a shame that media uncritically re-reports Hamas numbers but even the Jerusalem post puts palestinan deaths in Gaza at >13k.

If you have a credible argument for the real number being less than 6th of that then I would like to hear it.

I'm not sure what "even Jerusalem Post" adds here. JP does not have any sources besides Hamas' reports. Nobody does. They discount it in certain way, but it's just baseless and unverifiable assumptions, I don't see why it should be given more weight that anybody else's. Are you able to find any substantiation to these figures that ultimately doesn't converge on believing Hamas' word?

I don't have any independent sources either, I just do a rough estimate based on what I learned about how much they are willing to lie. Like, if Israel attacks a building and they say 10000 people died, nobody is going to believe that - too much. But if 5 people died and they say 50 - there's a chance that goes through. Saying something like 7 would be pointless - too little added, saying something like 500 would strain the credibility too much, probably - the real multiplier is somewhere within those bounds. Of course, I have no means to accurately estimate it either beyond that.

Red Sea

The United States has set up a multinational naval force to protect shipping in the Red Sea, involving thus far “Britain, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain” (some of these countries are sending ships, others just operational support). Maersk has already said they will resume shipping through the corridor.

The Houthis have responded by saying they will fire on US ships, which seems inadvisable, but I guess we’ve been at proxy war for a while now anyway. The Us and Britain have reported already shooting down over a dozen attack drones. Ironically, Saudi Arabia, the country the Houthis have actually been at war with and who has the most to lose from a Red Sea conflict (36% of their imports), will not be joining the effort (the UAE won’t either), apparently because they are concerned with holding together their fragile peace with Iran. Probably for the best honestly. Of course, even among their rapidly anti-Houthi populace, Saudi Arabia does not want to be seen doing anything like supporting the pro-Israel forces of the war.

Democratic Republic of Congo

An update to last week’s coverage of the election. The election has technically not been called yet but incumbent President Félix Tshisekedi reportedly has an implausible 80%+ of the vote, so the results are pretty much determined.

He was followed by businessman and former governor of Katanga (southeast) Moïse Katumbi (15.18%) and the other opponent Martin Fayulu (1.2%). The twenty or so other candidates in the running, including Nobel Peace Prize winner Denis Mukwege, failed to reach 1%.

Tshisekedi winning a fair election is actually plausible, but probably not dominating like this - the economy is poor and the security situation in the east with the Rwandan-backed M23 rebels has been extremely rough throughout his term. Five of the opposition candidates are leading a protest marching on the capital of Kinshasa. The government rejected their plans and banned the protest, so hopefully things stay peaceful and don’t deteriorate into significant police brutality. I’ve mentioned it before but Tshisekedi’s first victory was the first peaceful, democratic transfer of power in Congolese history so a lot is (was?) riding on this election.

Iraq

Conflicts between American servicemembers and the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq continue to rage on:

The drone strike on a US base in Irbil in Iraq's Kurdistan region injured three US military personnel, one critically, US National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said.

A militia collective called Islamic Resistance in Iraq, linked to Kataib Hezbollah, said it was behind the that attack.

The Irbil airbase had previously been hit by rocket attacks carried out by Iranian-linked militia. Kataib Hezbollah, which is financed and armed by Iran, has been one of the most prominent groups involved in attacks on US targets in Iraq. It forms part of the Hashd al Shaabi (Popular Mobilisation), an umbrella group of militia which has been integrated into the Iraqi armed forces.

Fortunately after several months of this the conflict remains at a low level, but also appears intractable and does seem to be steadily escalating:

U.S. President Joe Biden ordered the United States military to carry out retaliatory airstrikes against Iranian-backed militia groups after three U.S. service members were injured in a drone attack in northern Iraq.

National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said one of the U.S. troops suffered critical injuries in the attack that occurred earlier Monday. The Iranian-backed militia Kataib Hezbollah and affiliated groups, under an umbrella of Iranian-backed militants, claimed credit for the attack that utilized a one-way attack drone.

Iraqi officials said that U.S. strikes targeting militia sites early Tuesday killed one militant and wounded 18. They came at a time of heightened fears of a regional spillover of the Israel-Hamas war.

Iran announced Monday that an Israeli strike on the outskirts of the Syrian capital of Damascus killed one of its top generals, Seyed Razi Mousavi, who had been a close companion of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the former head of Iran’s elite Quds Force. Soleimani was slain in a U.S. drone strike in Iraq in January 2020.

China and the Philippines

I’ve covered the flare ups between the Philippines and China recently, including China using water cannons to repeatedly attack Philipino ships transporting supplies to fisherman in the contested Scarborough Shoal, and placing up borders at the shoal's entrance. The latest update is China doubling down and fully reiterating their commitment to an aggressive posture in the South China Sea vis-a-vis the Philippines. Regrettable news considering the US is treaty bound to defending the Philippines in a conflict, and has recently reiterated their own commitment to this obligation.

In a phone conversation Wednesday with his Philippine counterpart, Enrique A. Manalo, [Chinese Foreign Minister] Wang “warned that if the Philippine side misjudges the situation, goes its own way, or even colludes with ill-intentioned external forces to continue to stir up troubles, China will defend its rights in accordance with law and respond resolutely,” the official Xinhua News Agency reported.

Wang’s comments follow China’s mobilization of its coast guard and maritime militia to block Philippine supply missions to support its soldiers and fishermen. China claims sovereignty over virtually the entire South China Sea, one of the world’s most crucial waterways for shipping, putting it at odds with the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei, who all maintain claims over islands, reefs and undersea resources in the region.

In particularly sharp comments, Wang was quoted as accusing the Philippines of having “changed its policy stance so far, reneged on the promises it has made, provoked troubles at sea, and undermined China’s legitimate and lawful rights.”

The Philipines has been requesting a multinational naval force that could protect its ships and escort safe passage through the shoal, hopefully including the US, Australia, Japan, and whoever else in on board.

On the plus side for peace, the top US and Chinese military officials are finally speaking again for the first time in over a year (they weren’t able to at the California summit despite Secretary Austin’s willingness because Chinese Defence Minister Li Shangfu had recently been fired).

Sudan

The anti-government paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has seized a Wad Madani, a major city in an agricultural province previously considered safe. For perspective, Wad Madani is about 100 miles away from Khartoum where the fighting initially broke out, and was even a destination for many refugees, so the conflict has spread significantly in distance. The city fell in under a week, and its seizure represents a major blow for the ruling government.

The army’s loss has raised questions about the future of its leader, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who is also Sudan’s head of state. It also heightens the risk, analysts said, that neighboring countries could be pulled into the war, and that foreign powers, such as the United Arab Emirates, already accused of fueling the war, will further intervene.

The latest dramatic turn in the war has confounded Sudanese citizens who now face the prospect of a Sudan ruled by a dreaded paramilitary force that has looted much of the capital and been accused of carrying out war crimes in the western Darfur region.

The war has already killed at least 10,000 people, though Sudanese health workers and United Nations officials say that is a vast underestimate.

Some 300,000 people have fled Wad Madani in recent days, according to the United Nations. Many of them, ill and hungry, left the city on foot and walked for hours to neighboring states as they dragged suitcases and sheets holding their meager belongings.

The World Food Program has unfortunately also halted some desperately needed food shipments to the area in response to rising safety concerns:

The United Nations food agency has temporarily suspended food assistance in some parts of Sudan’s al-Jazirah state where it was supporting more than 800,000 people, as fighting spreads south and east of the country’s capital, Khartoum.

About 300,000 people have fled the previously peaceful state in a matter of days, since clashes erupted last week, the World Food Programme (WFP) said on Wednesday.

I’d thought the Sudanese army was strongly favored to win the war- what changed? Is the janjaweed that much more competent, or are generals backstabbing each other?

Swedish Ascension to NATO

Officially Erdogan dropped his objections to Sweden joining NATO (surrounding perceived Swedish sheltering of dissidents from the Turkish Kurdistan Workers’ Party) way back in the summer, but little forward progress has happened since then.

Turkey, Sweden and Finland reached an agreement last year to tackle Ankara’s security concerns and Sweden subsequently took steps to tighten its anti-terrorism laws, making support for extremist organizations punishable by up to eight years in prison.

But a series of anti-Turkey and anti-Islam protests held in Stockholm, some of which involved the burning of the Quran, has also angered Erdogan’s government and the Turkish public. Although these demonstrations were condemned by the Swedish government, the Turkish government criticized Sweden — which has laws protecting free speech — for allowing displays of anti-Muslim sentiment.

Now, reportedly, Turkey has come back to the table for something they care (about the optics at least) even more:

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at the alliance’s summit meeting in July that Sweden had agreed “to support actively the efforts to reinvigorate Turkey’s EU accession process.” Sweden announced it would seek improved customs arrangements and take steps to implement visa-free European travel for Turkish citizens.

Turkey’s equivalent of the House Foreign Affairs Committee has now signed off on Swedish ascension. It’ll now be voted on in the entire parliament and then sent to Erdogan for his signature. He holds a majority so technically there shouldn’t be an issue, though reportedly some members of his party are upset by recent Kurdish attacks on a Turkish base, resurrecting the whole Sweden-KPP thing in people’s minds.

Now the only holdout is Hungary, which is mad about Sweden accusing Fidesz of autocratic leanings and holding up EU funds. Previously the Hungarian Foreign Minister had “promised” that Hungary “won’t be the last holdout” in approving Sweden, which looks to be a rapidly approaching situation, but only last week Orban said that there was no deal to move Swedish ascension forward. Hungarian parliament is apparently on recess until all the way in the middle of February (somehow making American politicians appear hardworking in comparison) so we won’t have an official answer for a while anyway.

Sweden has been protecting the Kurds from the Turks?

I thought they were one of the nations that wouldn't extradite followers of that guy leading a weird religious movement slash opposition group ... What's his name? Gul?

Oh, yes. Gul Dukat. That's it. Anyway, I thought that was part of Edrogan's beef with the Swedes. My mistake.

Belarus

…is now officially a nuclear power. Ostensibly Russia has complete control over these assets, we’ll see if that’s true. It’s remarkable that throughout all of this Belarus has not lifted a finger to assist in the war despite ostensibly being a Russian satellite state, no onger even allowing Russian troops to attack Ukrainian territory over the Belarussian border after the first two months of the conflict.

Ostensibly Russia has complete control over these assets, we’ll see if that’s true.

Isn't this just like how the US based nuclear weapons in Turkey? Nobody says Turkey was a nuclear power and it seems unlikely for the Russians to give nukes to Belarus - how would that advantage them? The last times they gave nuclear weapons away, they got burned. China was extremely ungrateful and the Cubans were rather erratic (this is the second, lesser-known part of the Cuban Missile Crisis).

Completely fair example.

Lukashenko's rule in Belarus is a lot shakier than Putin's in Russia. I assume he is afraid of a mutiny if he asks Belarussian troops to fight in Ukraine. It is also worth noting that there was a fairly widespread campaign of railway sabotage against Russian movements through Belarus in the early stage of the war, presumably carried out by Belarussians sympathetic to Ukraine, which the regime did not seem able to prevent.

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