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Culture War Roundup for the week of September 19, 2022

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I don’t quite understand your optimism here. Time will tell

Environmentalists have been claiming we can insulate and save our way to zero energy for decades, and they've got people believing it. We can't. The US EPA estimates a typical 20% reduction in heating and cooling in the most favorable climate zone. Unless European houses are typically uninsulated with leaky windows, it's not likely to be much better there. Now, 20% is a big number... but not when you're talking about the kinds of shortages expected in Europe. Same for thermostat reduction (and the better your insulation, the less you save from that)

I am a licensed HVAC tech and the 20% reduction number is a lie from the people who make these products so they can convince homeowners they’re cost effective. The real number is usually a lot less.

Do you have any sources for this? (I have no understanding of any of this but I know some people considering getting a heat pump)

Sources, no. Experience, yes. HVAC and insulation improvements are sold, mostly, financed, with the goal that the customer pays sufficiently less on the electric bill to make up for the payment. In general that doesn’t happen and the note on the improvements are rolled into the house payment the next time the homeowner refinances.

Now there are energy efficiency gains from a lot of that stuff(double paned windows, extra attic insulation, etc), just usually not enough to pay for itself in power bills(which the marketing data these EPA claims are based off of is trying to prove).

As for heat pumps in specific, they’re usually cheaper than electric resistor heating and more expensive than gas. They may or may not be greener than gas; depends on what your electricity comes from.

The 20% number wasn't heat pumps, but overall improvements from insulation. Looking at the EPA pdf, they make some pretty major assumptions that homes have no underfloor or rim joist insulation, 23% duct leakage, dreadful windows, and an arbitrary 4% HVAC mischarging figure.

I've been around a lot of homes, and haven't seen many that would make me consider that an average sample to base improvement estimates on.

Hell, my piece of shit house was cobbled together in the sample era and has none of those issues left to fix as low hanging fruit. Other than half the west wall currently being a plastic sheet... I should probably get back to that.

Unless European houses are typically uninsulated with leaky windows, it's not likely to be much better there.

I've never felt as cold as indoors in Germany in early March. It was quite a shock for someone who was used to -25C outdoors temperatures barely affecting indoor temperature due to decent insulation and central heating (that I always have to turn way down to avoid boiling inside).

I swear I get sick every time I go to a Mediterranean country in the winter. Usually when the day temps are like 15C. My body just cannot take the shock of insides of houses being colder than the outside.

It was also a revelation for me when visiting Ireland how much colder it feels when you actually can't escape (comparably milder than in Finland) outdoor temps to warm insulated homes for most of your time.

Dunno about Germany, but having spent a few weeks in Airbnb in winter in Ireland, wow. The host gave us electric blanket and told us to never mind that the room was not room temperature. And Ireland is not even cold!

Yeah I think this is a common thing! Coming from the Netherlands, I've heard people from Eastern Europe complain about the cold here. I was confused at first like "bro wtf, it's like -20C right now where you are from, how on earth are you cold here?!", but yeah, if you don't go outside too much and you crank up that thermostat indoors, I guess the Netherlands is effectively colder in the winter.

Likewise, I've experienced the opposite going to Norway in the winter. Everywhere inside was uncomfortably warm and stuffy for me. I prefer a bit of fresh air and 19C indoor temperatures all day.... But I guess that's harder to manage when it's -25C outside, compared to when it's 5C.

The Netherlands are also super humid. -20C and dry is much better than 5C and humid.

This is a huge effect.

Montreal and parts of ontario are near massive rapids, so no matter how cold it gets there's a constant churn of moisture entering the air.

I've almost fallen over shivering when the wind was right and it was -10 in Montreal, which would usually take -30 and heavy windchill in dry rural Ontario

(mind you very cold and dry conditions still messes up your skin vastly more... your core temperature might be find, but you get the equivalent of a major sunburn from just the wind)