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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   25233 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 30, 2023

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Housing prices are more important to most people by a massive margin than the price of cheap consumer crap from China.

This is a common talking point, but the CPI reflects that. Shelter is weighted at about 35%, "recreational commodities" at about 2.2%, plus 0.87% for "Education and communication commodities" (which includes cellphones and computers).

This is a common talking point, but the CPI reflects that. Shelter is weighted at about 35%

And how do they determine it?

And how do they determine it?

Partly from actual rent, largely from something called "Owners Equivalent Rent" which may involve voodoo.

Bingo, and that is 30%.

Which still says nothing about cheap consumer crap from China. Rent is up about 28% from the start of the Biden administration, OER only 18%, but just because I call OER "voodoo" doesn't mean it's actually wrong.

Are those good weights? Do those match the actual spending or preferences of the people whose "vibes" we are deriding?

35% is much larger than 3.07% (by a margin of 11.4:1), which is sufficient to defeat the implicit claim that the "the official inflation measures are broken" because they don't reflect that "Housing prices are more important to most people by a massive margin than the price of cheap consumer crap from China." They do in fact reflect that.

Note "parts of the country that get the top 30% population growth" which is the key. This measures the inflation for new adults who are moving on their own and starting families which is the segment that matters much more than pensioners who have already paid off their houses or living in areas that will have few people in 20 years. It addresses the very common complaint that the wages are no longer enough to buy a reasonable house / apartment even though the official inflation says everything is perfectly fine.

It is one of the few significant parts where the cost is largely determined by policy (ie. city planning, building permits and, if necessary, public projects).

I don't think that would get you the results you expect

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/subcounty-metro-micro-estimates.html

And of course declaring that one particular generation is the only one which matters is not going to be particularly convincing to most.

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