site banner
PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   25230 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 30, 2023

This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.

Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.

We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:

  • Shaming.

  • Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.

  • Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.

  • Recruiting for a cause.

  • Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.

In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:

  • Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.

  • Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.

  • Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.

  • Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.

On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.

8
Top Bottom Old Controversial Comments
Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

To me it's obvious that if "vibes" and official inflation measures disagree significantly, the official inflation measures are broken and don't measure what's actually relevant to people. Housing prices are more important to most people by a massive margin than the price of cheap consumer crap from China. The second artificially pushes down inflation measures while having ultimately very little effect on quality of life.

For quite a few years I've thought that an inflation measure that better matches peoples' lived experience could be built on just two things: Housing prices in the parts of the country that get the top 30% population growth and the price of a cup of coffee. The first is a fairly good measure of the parts of country that actually matter (what the inflation is in some place that'll be half empty in 20 years is largely irrelevant) and that will be even more relevant in the future. The second captures "opportunistic inflation" that measures price pressure for consumer visible businesses (the ones driving inflation) and is immediately felt by ordinary people.

Housing prices in the parts of the country that get the top 30% population growth

Ft worth, Phoenix and San Antonio are not known for having expensive housing. Or if you look at it by metro area rather than city, neither are Dallas, Houston or The Villages (FL).

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/subcounty-metro-micro-estimates.html

Pop growth is disproportionately in areas that allow houses to be built, for fairly mechanical reasons.

Housing prices are more important to most people by a massive margin than the price of cheap consumer crap from China.

This is a common talking point, but the CPI reflects that. Shelter is weighted at about 35%, "recreational commodities" at about 2.2%, plus 0.87% for "Education and communication commodities" (which includes cellphones and computers).

This is a common talking point, but the CPI reflects that. Shelter is weighted at about 35%

And how do they determine it?

And how do they determine it?

Partly from actual rent, largely from something called "Owners Equivalent Rent" which may involve voodoo.

Bingo, and that is 30%.

Which still says nothing about cheap consumer crap from China. Rent is up about 28% from the start of the Biden administration, OER only 18%, but just because I call OER "voodoo" doesn't mean it's actually wrong.

Are those good weights? Do those match the actual spending or preferences of the people whose "vibes" we are deriding?

35% is much larger than 3.07% (by a margin of 11.4:1), which is sufficient to defeat the implicit claim that the "the official inflation measures are broken" because they don't reflect that "Housing prices are more important to most people by a massive margin than the price of cheap consumer crap from China." They do in fact reflect that.

Note "parts of the country that get the top 30% population growth" which is the key. This measures the inflation for new adults who are moving on their own and starting families which is the segment that matters much more than pensioners who have already paid off their houses or living in areas that will have few people in 20 years. It addresses the very common complaint that the wages are no longer enough to buy a reasonable house / apartment even though the official inflation says everything is perfectly fine.

It is one of the few significant parts where the cost is largely determined by policy (ie. city planning, building permits and, if necessary, public projects).

I don't think that would get you the results you expect

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/subcounty-metro-micro-estimates.html

And of course declaring that one particular generation is the only one which matters is not going to be particularly convincing to most.

What is this place?

This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a court of people who don't all share the same biases. Our goal is to optimize for light, not heat; this is a group effort, and all commentators are asked to do their part.

The weekly Culture War threads host the most controversial topics and are the most visible aspect of The Motte. However, many other topics are appropriate here. We encourage people to post anything related to science, politics, or philosophy; if in doubt, post!

Check out The Vault for an archive of old quality posts. You are encouraged to crosspost these elsewhere.


Why are you called The Motte?

A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently, it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey", originally identified by philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."

On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.


New post guidelines

If you're posting something that isn't related to the culture war, we encourage you to post a thread for it. A submission statement is highly appreciated, but isn't necessary for text posts or links to largely-text posts such as blogs or news articles; if we're unsure of the value of your post, we might remove it until you add a submission statement. A submission statement is required for non-text sources (videos, podcasts, images).

Culture war posts go in the culture war thread; all links must either include a submission statement or significant commentary. Bare links without those will be removed.

If in doubt, please post it!


Rules


Recommended Posts And Communities

Recommended Realtime Chats