naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #3
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
Israel is inherently destabilizing because it never has to negotiate
Then why do they not hold the Sinai Peninusla?
Israel can fail to negotiate, get into lighting regional wars... and then they should be fucked from the fact it just started a fight with a vastly larger number of people who could just start ww1 or Iran-War style attritional warfare and bleed them out over a year... But that war never happens because they have America to force and sanction a ceasefire for them.
This is ridiculously ahistorical. The last ceasefires happened with Israel's armies deep into enemy territory and still advancing.
And what would have happened if the US and USSR had not pushed a ceasefire?
How many wars end in 6 days!?
If not for the international alliance system, Israel would win and win and win... for the first few months. Then their forces would reach the limits of what they can hold... and then the reality of being 10 million amidst 500 million Muslims would set in and they'd be ground away to nothing by the reality of attritional artillery warfare and urban insurgency... and they'd be fucked.
Israel has never fought a war like the Iran-Iraq war, or the Russo-Ukraine War, or the World Wars, or even the Chinese or US civil wars, or even Vietnam, Iraq, or the Soviet-Afghanistan. Or even the Rhodesian Bush war, where they have to face an armed organized enemy continuously attacking their military and probably civilians for a decade+.
They've always been able to depend on the international order forcing a ceasefire and locking in their victories... and securing hard blockades on their Palestinian enemies, enforce even by their regional rivals in exchange for US Aid.
Rhodesia certainly didn't have the US bribing Mozambique and Zambia to the tunes of billions of dollars a year to enforce secure borders and block smuggling, the way way Israel does with the US bribing Egypt and Jordan.
That is very unusual. Especially in the 20th century. And it is NOT stable.
The fact that they then decided to Sex Traffick the children of the power they desperately need to backstop 100% of their regional security concerns is the cherry on top.
Israel has never fought a war like the Iran-Iraq war, or the Russo-Ukraine War, or the World Wars, or even the Chinese or US civil wars, or even Vietnam, Iraq, or the Soviet-Afghanistan. Or even the Rhodesian Bush war, where they have to face an armed organized enemy continuously attacking their military and probably civilians for a decade+.
Israel’s main adversaries in previous conventional wars have not demonstrated themselves capable of transitioning to a war of attrition against a competent military.
And what would have happened if the US and USSR had not pushed a ceasefire?
Israel would have been stuck trying to occupy Egypt and Syria. If they'd had any sense they have withdrawn to defensible lines after confiscating or destroying as much enemy material they could get their hands on. It would take those countries considerable time to rebuild.
they'd be ground away to nothing by the reality of attritional artillery warfare and urban insurgency... and they'd be fucked.
As they've proven in their current situation, you can put up with that sort of thing indefinitely.
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Notes -
Then why do they not hold the Sinai Peninusla?
This is ridiculously ahistorical. The last ceasefires happened with Israel's armies deep into enemy territory and still advancing.
And what would have happened if the US and USSR had not pushed a ceasefire?
How many wars end in 6 days!?
If not for the international alliance system, Israel would win and win and win... for the first few months. Then their forces would reach the limits of what they can hold... and then the reality of being 10 million amidst 500 million Muslims would set in and they'd be ground away to nothing by the reality of attritional artillery warfare and urban insurgency... and they'd be fucked.
Israel has never fought a war like the Iran-Iraq war, or the Russo-Ukraine War, or the World Wars, or even the Chinese or US civil wars, or even Vietnam, Iraq, or the Soviet-Afghanistan. Or even the Rhodesian Bush war, where they have to face an armed organized enemy continuously attacking their military and probably civilians for a decade+.
They've always been able to depend on the international order forcing a ceasefire and locking in their victories... and securing hard blockades on their Palestinian enemies, enforce even by their regional rivals in exchange for US Aid.
Rhodesia certainly didn't have the US bribing Mozambique and Zambia to the tunes of billions of dollars a year to enforce secure borders and block smuggling, the way way Israel does with the US bribing Egypt and Jordan.
That is very unusual. Especially in the 20th century. And it is NOT stable.
The fact that they then decided to Sex Traffick the children of the power they desperately need to backstop 100% of their regional security concerns is the cherry on top.
Israel’s main adversaries in previous conventional wars have not demonstrated themselves capable of transitioning to a war of attrition against a competent military.
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Israel would have been stuck trying to occupy Egypt and Syria. If they'd had any sense they have withdrawn to defensible lines after confiscating or destroying as much enemy material they could get their hands on. It would take those countries considerable time to rebuild.
As they've proven in their current situation, you can put up with that sort of thing indefinitely.
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