naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #3
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
I think you're making the mistake of seeing the people you immediate know and interact with have dumb tribalist reasons for believing what they believe... and then look at see the majority of that movement is composed of such people with largely the same motivations... And then generalize that to the movement, instead of to ALL movements.
I can guarantee you there's some Clever young Israeli/America Jew writing the exact same thing about how his family members have dumb easily disproven, obviously inconsistent beliefs about Israel's ancient right to Pallestine, their explicit and open racism against arabs (the kind of which they're scream for a Second Sherman's march if a southerner said it about blacks)... And then can look and find Israeli politicians and even think tanks making THE EXACT SAME BULLSHIT arguments... but actually affecting policy with it.
Tribalism, stupidity, and arguments as soldiers is the rule, not the exception.
This is why you find rationalists are almost always the polar opposite of their early intellectual enviroment, because that's the ideology they've seen all the way through.
Israel is inherently destabilizing because it never has to negotiate... in spite of being completely outnumbered and outgunned regionally. Israel can fail to negotiate, get into lighting regional wars... and then they should be fucked from the fact it just started a fight with a vastly larger number of people who could just start ww1 or Iran-War style attritional warfare and bleed them out over a year... But that war never happens because they have America to force and sanction a ceasefire for them.
Its as if a guy had only one or two quic punches in him, went to a bar... and got in fights on the knowledge he had a bigger friend there who will break it up after the first few punches when he'd be screwed.
This is why the peace process goes nowhere because Israel's in a heads i win-tails ReFlip position... that's completely artificial and built on exploiting the US taxpayer and trust of the Iowan Christians who'd die fighting a major middle-east war.
Its an inherently belligerent position. They're Serbian nationalists starting shit in the early 20th century on the Knowledge Russia will declare war to protect them.
Likewise all the analysis of "Methods" is complete bullshit when we're comparing An insurgent terrorist movement to a rogue state that's secretly developed nuclear weapons.
Sure when Israel commits genocide against Palestinian refugees, they give Lebanese Christian Militias a nod and a wink and then protect them as they do it in eyesight of the IDF... they make sure there's no pictures of the IDF using a machete or rifle on a mother and child. Likewise they control the tapes when they sex traffic American girls ot Blackmail US politicians ...
the Idea Jeffery Epstein or Ghislaine Maxwell were NOT Mossad agents is the conspiracy theory. Who is this shadowy org that can corrupt and recruit the Daughter of Robert Maxwell right under the Mossad's nose, then stop the Mossad and CIA from acting and opening every file to stop the madness, when Epstein got caught and they realize Ghislaine and Epstein were rogue and SEX TRAFFICKING AMERICAN CHILDREN... Was it the Free Masons? Aliens!? Antarctic Space Nazis?
Its a conspiracy theory to say it wasn't exactly what it looked like, and Israel is the single most traitorous enemy America has ever faced.
EVERY SINGLE THING Hamas has ever done has either had direct precedents in something Israel has done to the Palestinians, or has been vastly more restrained and measured.
If this were 2008 I'd say neither side deserves US backing and funding... But in light of Epstein I believe America should Fund and Arm the moderate Gazan rebels. Exactly one of these groups has attacked American children in America.
Israel is inherently destabilizing because it never has to negotiate
Then why do they not hold the Sinai Peninusla?
Israel can fail to negotiate, get into lighting regional wars... and then they should be fucked from the fact it just started a fight with a vastly larger number of people who could just start ww1 or Iran-War style attritional warfare and bleed them out over a year... But that war never happens because they have America to force and sanction a ceasefire for them.
This is ridiculously ahistorical. The last ceasefires happened with Israel's armies deep into enemy territory and still advancing.
And what would have happened if the US and USSR had not pushed a ceasefire?
How many wars end in 6 days!?
If not for the international alliance system, Israel would win and win and win... for the first few months. Then their forces would reach the limits of what they can hold... and then the reality of being 10 million amidst 500 million Muslims would set in and they'd be ground away to nothing by the reality of attritional artillery warfare and urban insurgency... and they'd be fucked.
Israel has never fought a war like the Iran-Iraq war, or the Russo-Ukraine War, or the World Wars, or even the Chinese or US civil wars, or even Vietnam, Iraq, or the Soviet-Afghanistan. Or even the Rhodesian Bush war, where they have to face an armed organized enemy continuously attacking their military and probably civilians for a decade+.
They've always been able to depend on the international order forcing a ceasefire and locking in their victories... and securing hard blockades on their Palestinian enemies, enforce even by their regional rivals in exchange for US Aid.
Rhodesia certainly didn't have the US bribing Mozambique and Zambia to the tunes of billions of dollars a year to enforce secure borders and block smuggling, the way way Israel does with the US bribing Egypt and Jordan.
That is very unusual. Especially in the 20th century. And it is NOT stable.
The fact that they then decided to Sex Traffick the children of the power they desperately need to backstop 100% of their regional security concerns is the cherry on top.
Israel has never fought a war like the Iran-Iraq war, or the Russo-Ukraine War, or the World Wars, or even the Chinese or US civil wars, or even Vietnam, Iraq, or the Soviet-Afghanistan. Or even the Rhodesian Bush war, where they have to face an armed organized enemy continuously attacking their military and probably civilians for a decade+.
Israel’s main adversaries in previous conventional wars have not demonstrated themselves capable of transitioning to a war of attrition against a competent military.
And what would have happened if the US and USSR had not pushed a ceasefire?
Israel would have been stuck trying to occupy Egypt and Syria. If they'd had any sense they have withdrawn to defensible lines after confiscating or destroying as much enemy material they could get their hands on. It would take those countries considerable time to rebuild.
they'd be ground away to nothing by the reality of attritional artillery warfare and urban insurgency... and they'd be fucked.
As they've proven in their current situation, you can put up with that sort of thing indefinitely.
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Notes -
I think you're making the mistake of seeing the people you immediate know and interact with have dumb tribalist reasons for believing what they believe... and then look at see the majority of that movement is composed of such people with largely the same motivations... And then generalize that to the movement, instead of to ALL movements.
I can guarantee you there's some Clever young Israeli/America Jew writing the exact same thing about how his family members have dumb easily disproven, obviously inconsistent beliefs about Israel's ancient right to Pallestine, their explicit and open racism against arabs (the kind of which they're scream for a Second Sherman's march if a southerner said it about blacks)... And then can look and find Israeli politicians and even think tanks making THE EXACT SAME BULLSHIT arguments... but actually affecting policy with it.
Tribalism, stupidity, and arguments as soldiers is the rule, not the exception.
This is why you find rationalists are almost always the polar opposite of their early intellectual enviroment, because that's the ideology they've seen all the way through.
Israel is inherently destabilizing because it never has to negotiate... in spite of being completely outnumbered and outgunned regionally. Israel can fail to negotiate, get into lighting regional wars... and then they should be fucked from the fact it just started a fight with a vastly larger number of people who could just start ww1 or Iran-War style attritional warfare and bleed them out over a year... But that war never happens because they have America to force and sanction a ceasefire for them.
Its as if a guy had only one or two quic punches in him, went to a bar... and got in fights on the knowledge he had a bigger friend there who will break it up after the first few punches when he'd be screwed.
This is why the peace process goes nowhere because Israel's in a heads i win-tails ReFlip position... that's completely artificial and built on exploiting the US taxpayer and trust of the Iowan Christians who'd die fighting a major middle-east war.
Its an inherently belligerent position. They're Serbian nationalists starting shit in the early 20th century on the Knowledge Russia will declare war to protect them.
Likewise all the analysis of "Methods" is complete bullshit when we're comparing An insurgent terrorist movement to a rogue state that's secretly developed nuclear weapons.
Sure when Israel commits genocide against Palestinian refugees, they give Lebanese Christian Militias a nod and a wink and then protect them as they do it in eyesight of the IDF... they make sure there's no pictures of the IDF using a machete or rifle on a mother and child. Likewise they control the tapes when they sex traffic American girls ot Blackmail US politicians ...
the Idea Jeffery Epstein or Ghislaine Maxwell were NOT Mossad agents is the conspiracy theory. Who is this shadowy org that can corrupt and recruit the Daughter of Robert Maxwell right under the Mossad's nose, then stop the Mossad and CIA from acting and opening every file to stop the madness, when Epstein got caught and they realize Ghislaine and Epstein were rogue and SEX TRAFFICKING AMERICAN CHILDREN... Was it the Free Masons? Aliens!? Antarctic Space Nazis?
Its a conspiracy theory to say it wasn't exactly what it looked like, and Israel is the single most traitorous enemy America has ever faced.
EVERY SINGLE THING Hamas has ever done has either had direct precedents in something Israel has done to the Palestinians, or has been vastly more restrained and measured.
If this were 2008 I'd say neither side deserves US backing and funding... But in light of Epstein I believe America should Fund and Arm the moderate Gazan rebels. Exactly one of these groups has attacked American children in America.
Then why do they not hold the Sinai Peninusla?
This is ridiculously ahistorical. The last ceasefires happened with Israel's armies deep into enemy territory and still advancing.
And what would have happened if the US and USSR had not pushed a ceasefire?
How many wars end in 6 days!?
If not for the international alliance system, Israel would win and win and win... for the first few months. Then their forces would reach the limits of what they can hold... and then the reality of being 10 million amidst 500 million Muslims would set in and they'd be ground away to nothing by the reality of attritional artillery warfare and urban insurgency... and they'd be fucked.
Israel has never fought a war like the Iran-Iraq war, or the Russo-Ukraine War, or the World Wars, or even the Chinese or US civil wars, or even Vietnam, Iraq, or the Soviet-Afghanistan. Or even the Rhodesian Bush war, where they have to face an armed organized enemy continuously attacking their military and probably civilians for a decade+.
They've always been able to depend on the international order forcing a ceasefire and locking in their victories... and securing hard blockades on their Palestinian enemies, enforce even by their regional rivals in exchange for US Aid.
Rhodesia certainly didn't have the US bribing Mozambique and Zambia to the tunes of billions of dollars a year to enforce secure borders and block smuggling, the way way Israel does with the US bribing Egypt and Jordan.
That is very unusual. Especially in the 20th century. And it is NOT stable.
The fact that they then decided to Sex Traffick the children of the power they desperately need to backstop 100% of their regional security concerns is the cherry on top.
Israel’s main adversaries in previous conventional wars have not demonstrated themselves capable of transitioning to a war of attrition against a competent military.
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Israel would have been stuck trying to occupy Egypt and Syria. If they'd had any sense they have withdrawn to defensible lines after confiscating or destroying as much enemy material they could get their hands on. It would take those countries considerable time to rebuild.
As they've proven in their current situation, you can put up with that sort of thing indefinitely.
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