naraburns nihil supernum
11mo ago
(text post)
30184 thread views
Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
Which Iranian leaders do you think are willing to die for this theory? In the event of a US/Iran war, the leadership of Iran will have a very short life expectancy.
Yeah, the US military is not very good anymore at winning hearts and minds of a population through occupation, but they are still unmatched at fucking up specific military and political targets. Think of all the efforts Saddam Hussein and Bin Laden went through to try to avoid that (insert Saddam Hussein tunnel meme here), only to still end up getting ganked. And the US was essentially unopposed in taking Bagdad, there was never a question of whether they would manage it, always of how fast they will. Iran has its irregulars sure, but they're mostly a country filled with infrastructure, government offices, military bases, which would be fucked hard in an instant in a military conflict.
The steps on the escalation ladder from "US/Israel War with Hezbollah" to "US War With Iran" to "US Assassination of the Iranian Leadership" aren't as proximal and rapid as you are making them seem.
This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a
court of people who don't all share the same biases. Our goal is to
optimize for light, not heat; this is a group effort, and all commentators are asked to do their part.
The weekly Culture War threads host the most
controversial topics and are the most visible aspect of The Motte. However, many other topics are
appropriate here. We encourage people to post anything related to science, politics, or philosophy;
if in doubt, post!
Check out The Vault for an archive of old quality posts.
You are encouraged to crosspost these elsewhere.
Why are you called The Motte?
A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently,
it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey",
originally identified by
philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial
but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens
this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for
the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired
propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."
On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.
New post guidelines
If you're posting something that isn't related to the culture war, we encourage you to post a thread for it.
A submission statement is highly appreciated, but isn't necessary for text posts or links to largely-text posts
such as blogs or news articles; if we're unsure of the value of your post, we might remove it until you add a
submission statement. A submission statement is required for non-text sources (videos, podcasts, images).
Culture war posts go in the culture war thread; all links must either include a submission statement or
significant commentary. Bare links without those will be removed.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Which Iranian leaders do you think are willing to die for this theory? In the event of a US/Iran war, the leadership of Iran will have a very short life expectancy.
Yeah, the US military is not very good anymore at winning hearts and minds of a population through occupation, but they are still unmatched at fucking up specific military and political targets. Think of all the efforts Saddam Hussein and Bin Laden went through to try to avoid that (insert Saddam Hussein tunnel meme here), only to still end up getting ganked. And the US was essentially unopposed in taking Bagdad, there was never a question of whether they would manage it, always of how fast they will. Iran has its irregulars sure, but they're mostly a country filled with infrastructure, government offices, military bases, which would be fucked hard in an instant in a military conflict.
More options
Context Copy link
Have you seen how many bunkers they've been digging ? You think if they move around Tehran, they're going to be easily targettable ?
More options
Context Copy link
The steps on the escalation ladder from "US/Israel War with Hezbollah" to "US War With Iran" to "US Assassination of the Iranian Leadership" aren't as proximal and rapid as you are making them seem.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link