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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   30317 thread views

Israel-Gaza Megathread #2

This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.

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"took Hamas's word for it"

Come on, if a particular building is bombed in Gaza nowadays I wouldn't need anyone's word to think it 99% likely that Israel did it, because Israel is definitely bombing other buildings there in retalion for the Hamas attacks.

I wouldn't need anyone's word to think it 99% likely that Israel did it

Roughly one third of Palestinian casualties in any given Israel-Hamas conflict are caused by rockets fired from the Gaza strip that fail in some way such as misfiring, crashing, prematurely detonating, coming apart in midair, and so on and so forth. Might be time to update those priors.

intercepted by the Iron Dome

is Iron Dome actually intercepting rockets over Gaza? Your source does not mention Iron Dome (what makes Israel even less involved)

You are correct, I was mistaken. The Iron Dome appears to only intercept rockets on terminal approach to a populated area in Israel, it does not intercept rockets over Gaza.

And a lot of the same people saying Israel didn't do it were saying that Israel would be 100% justified in doing so the day before.

There's nothing contradictory in those two arguments. A lot of people generally think Israel is excessively soft in how it handles Hamas.

if a particular building is bombed in Gaza nowadays I wouldn't need anyone's word to think it 99% likely that Israel did it

Even if the Bayesian statistics bear this out (I'm not quite as confident as you, but it is probably more likely than not), the better question is whether or not it's sufficient confidence to run "Israel bombs hospital, killing 500" headlines. In this case, it seems like it probably shouldn't have been.

Why not?

The US was way less trigger happy then the IDF during the war on terror and we Kandahar'd the hell out of some hospitals.

It was sensational as hell though; can't argue with that.

A particular building, yes. That particular building, no. This is a group who has put bombs under schools and hospitals in the past. Everything they say should be taken with a massive grain of salt. Israel too, but these people are already skeptical of Israel but believe something said by a literal Islamist organization that is undoubtedly a terrorist group.

Yes, because journalists and politicians did that immediately when it happened! Where do you think the casualty numbers and this news came from?

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