naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
(text post)
29411 thread views
Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
When I created this megathread, here is what I posted to the moderator Discord:
A couple users asked for an Israel-Gaza megathread, it's maybe a bit late for that but maybe not so I went ahead and gave them one. I optimistically did not name it "World War III Opens on a Second Front."
My understanding of military decisions is exclusively historical and political, so I can't speak to the nuts and bolts of this, but every conflict like the ones in Ukraine and Israel opens the door a little wider for attacks of opportunity elsewhere. I am skeptical that China will ever invade Taiwan--the economic benefits of just rattling sabers at them for all of eternity seem far better than the ideological benefits of burning the island to cinders. I sometimes wonder if Taiwan is allowed to be what it is because someone in China read Brave New World and decided that an island of malcontent exiles was a pretty good idea, actually.
But their ability to get away with an invasion of Taiwan is certainly increased by contemporaneous conflict elsewhere.
Other contenders for the "next front in World War III" presumably include Iran and North Korea, ye olde Axis of Evil, but there are plenty of other places that could qualify. The flood of migrants arriving in Europe and the United States every day may be driven primarily by economics, but one of the worst things for any economy is armed conflict, and it is at some level armed conflict that almost all such migrants are ultimately fleeing. How much of the world needs be at war, to call it a World War?
Vox Day had some discussion on his site around the possibility of this spilling out into WW3. Basically it was through considering Ukraine/Russia, Iran/Israel and China/Taiwan as separate fronts. China and Russia both gain from flashpoints such as what is happening in Israel, as it draws focus and resources away from their spheres.
A world war is when the war is global. Even 10 local conflicts don't make a world war until there are two sides and japan allies with germany even though they are not fighting on the same continent. And by that, I mean that they declare war and peace together, not that they are allies in that they help each other somehow.
How much of the world needs be at war, to call it a World War?
When white and honorary white start to die in sufficient quantities.
You also missed the Nagorno Karabakh in "list of things that hit the fan recently" that I think is also result of embolden adversaries and weakened russia.
I always thought of the current axis of evil as laughable. All the countries there are pathetic and china wants not a part of it.
The Armenia thing is interesting. It’s one thing ethnically cleansing 30,000 Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, quite another occupying a hostile nationalist population a third the size of your own with a different religion and 2000 year history.
This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a
court of people who don't all share the same biases. Our goal is to
optimize for light, not heat; this is a group effort, and all commentators are asked to do their part.
The weekly Culture War threads host the most
controversial topics and are the most visible aspect of The Motte. However, many other topics are
appropriate here. We encourage people to post anything related to science, politics, or philosophy;
if in doubt, post!
Check out The Vault for an archive of old quality posts.
You are encouraged to crosspost these elsewhere.
Why are you called The Motte?
A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently,
it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey",
originally identified by
philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial
but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens
this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for
the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired
propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."
On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.
New post guidelines
If you're posting something that isn't related to the culture war, we encourage you to post a thread for it.
A submission statement is highly appreciated, but isn't necessary for text posts or links to largely-text posts
such as blogs or news articles; if we're unsure of the value of your post, we might remove it until you add a
submission statement. A submission statement is required for non-text sources (videos, podcasts, images).
Culture war posts go in the culture war thread; all links must either include a submission statement or
significant commentary. Bare links without those will be removed.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
When I created this megathread, here is what I posted to the moderator Discord:
My understanding of military decisions is exclusively historical and political, so I can't speak to the nuts and bolts of this, but every conflict like the ones in Ukraine and Israel opens the door a little wider for attacks of opportunity elsewhere. I am skeptical that China will ever invade Taiwan--the economic benefits of just rattling sabers at them for all of eternity seem far better than the ideological benefits of burning the island to cinders. I sometimes wonder if Taiwan is allowed to be what it is because someone in China read Brave New World and decided that an island of malcontent exiles was a pretty good idea, actually.
But their ability to get away with an invasion of Taiwan is certainly increased by contemporaneous conflict elsewhere.
Other contenders for the "next front in World War III" presumably include Iran and North Korea, ye olde Axis of Evil, but there are plenty of other places that could qualify. The flood of migrants arriving in Europe and the United States every day may be driven primarily by economics, but one of the worst things for any economy is armed conflict, and it is at some level armed conflict that almost all such migrants are ultimately fleeing. How much of the world needs be at war, to call it a World War?
Vox Day had some discussion on his site around the possibility of this spilling out into WW3. Basically it was through considering Ukraine/Russia, Iran/Israel and China/Taiwan as separate fronts. China and Russia both gain from flashpoints such as what is happening in Israel, as it draws focus and resources away from their spheres.
More options
Context Copy link
A world war is when the war is global. Even 10 local conflicts don't make a world war until there are two sides and japan allies with germany even though they are not fighting on the same continent. And by that, I mean that they declare war and peace together, not that they are allies in that they help each other somehow.
More options
Context Copy link
When white and honorary white start to die in sufficient quantities. You also missed the Nagorno Karabakh in "list of things that hit the fan recently" that I think is also result of embolden adversaries and weakened russia.
I always thought of the current axis of evil as laughable. All the countries there are pathetic and china wants not a part of it.
The Armenia thing is interesting. It’s one thing ethnically cleansing 30,000 Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, quite another occupying a hostile nationalist population a third the size of your own with a different religion and 2000 year history.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link