naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
I have some narrow questions about the conflict that I'm having trouble getting good answers to. None of these is intended as a "gotcha."
Why can't Palestinian civilians flee to Egypt across Gaza's southern border? What considerations or pressures (internal or external) prevent Egypt from granting entry now to Palestinian refugees?
What is the status of the Israeli hostages? Should we believe that they're still alive? Are they assumed to all be held in Gaza? Are they being detained together? Who coordinates their care? Do we have any knowledge of their treatment in detention?
What is Hamas? Is it a political party? Is there separate civil and military leadership? Does it have a clear command chain? Are leaders identified publicly? Is it clear which particular leaders were likely involved in planning / authorizing Saturday's incursion into Israel? Do these leaders currently reside inside of Gaza? Are they in communication with one another, or are they isolated now? Do they continue coordinating activities, or are they relegated to being bystanders? Is there any line of communication open now between Israeli and Gazan political leadership? Leaving aside willingness, are there Gazan political leaders who would be capable of enforcing the Gazan side of a potential ceasefire?
What are the strategic objectives of Israel's current bombardment / siege of Gaza? Is it aimed at weakening military capabilities in preparation for a ground invasion / occupation? Is it aimed at weakening military capabilities to limit Hamas's ability to launch another strike against Israel? Is it bloodlust / punishment / revenge? Is it a show of force to warn other regional actors (from the West Bank, Iran, or Lebanon) to stay away? Is it intended to "break the will" of Gazans, so that popular support will wane for military strikes on Israel? Is it aimed at disincentivizing future military strikes on Israel (by impressing upon prospective actors that the consequences of such strikes will be severe)?
Is there significant continued Gazan military resistance to Israel's bombardment? Are missiles still being launched from Gazan territory? If so, are these coordinated actions, or are they actions taken at the initiative of small, independent groups of actors in Gaza?
If Israel's total blockade of the Gaza strip persists, how will the civilian population be affected? Clearly, medically-vulnerable people will be severely impacted in the immediate term. But over what timeframe will the general population face life-threatening hardship (and not simple inconvenience)?
Leaving aside ethical and moral obligations, is there a case that Israel has a proactive legal obligation to permit the influx of humanitarian supplies to Gaza along their shared border?
I assume that others here have their own narrow questions. If so, maybe they could go in this thread.
We don't know. The hostages may be all dead, or being tortured, or killed in airstrikes, or kept safe in a bunker for negotiation leverage. Anything is possible.
Hamas has a separate political and military leadership structure. Yahya Sinwar is the political leader in Gaza and will almost certainly be killed (if he hasn't been already). Saleh al-Arouri is his deputy. I don't think Israel is interested in leaving anyone in the Gaza leadership alive to negotiate with. There are also Hamas officials living in countries like Qatar, Netanyahu has called for their host countries to be sanctioned if they don't expel them.
For #7: Israel has a legal obligation to allow humanitarian supplies, but only when there are controls in place to ensure that the food goes to civilians.
These mostly reference rules from the Geneva conventions, specifically "Geneva Convention (IV) on Civilians, 1949", "Additional Protocol (I) to the Geneva Conventions, 1977" and "Additional Protocol (II) to the Geneva Conventions, 1977"
The 4th Geneva convention draws a distinction between nationals of a state that's signed on to the conventions, and nationals of other states Article 4, reads:
Article 4
... Nationals of a State which is not bound by the Convention are not protected by it. Nationals of a neutral State who find themselves in the territory of a belligerent State, and nationals of a co-belligerent State, shall not be regarded as protected persons while the State of which they are nationals has normal diplomatic representation in the State in whose hands they are. ...
Palestine hasn't agreed to follow the conventions, which matters when we get to Article 23, the first article referenced by the Red Cross:
Article 23 - Consignment of medical supplies, food and clothing
Each High Contracting Party shall allow the free passage of all consignments of medical and hospital stores and objects necessary for religious worship intended only for civilians of another High Contracting Party, even if the latter is its adversary. It shall likewise permit the free passage of all consignments of essential foodstuffs, clothing and tonics intended for children under fifteen, expectant mothers and maternity cases.
The obligation of a High Contracting Party to allow the free passage of the consignments indicated in the preceding paragraph is subject to the condition that this Party is satisfied that there are no serious reasons for fearing:
(a) that the consignments may be diverted from their destination,
(b) that the control may not be effective, or
(c) that a definite advantage may accrue to the military efforts or economy of the enemy through the substitution of the above-mentioned consignments for goods which would otherwise be provided or produced by the enemy or through the release of such material, services or facilities as would otherwise be required for the production of such goods.
This article imposes two obligations. Countries must:
Allow aid targeted at children (under 15) and pregnant women, regardless of their nationality.
Allow aid targeted at civilians - including adult civilians - if those civilians are nationals of a party that's following the conventions.
But Israel only needs to allow this aid in-as-far as Israel believes the aid will get to where it's supposed to go.
So, before Israel gets an obligation under Article 23, Hamas would need to commit to making sure that any aid shipments reached their intended recipients and didn't get used by non-civilians. If Hamas made that commitment, Israel would be obliged to feed kids and pregnant women.
Israel would only get an Article 23 obligation to allow aid targeted at adult civilians if Hamas (as that party controlling the Gaza strip) additionally agreed to follow the Geneva conventions.
If the civilian population of any territory under the control of a Party to the conflict, other than occupied territory, is not adequately provided with the supplies mentioned in Article 69 , relief actions which are humanitarian and impartial in character and conducted without any adverse distinction shall be undertaken, subject to the agreement of the Parties concerned in such relief actions. Offers of such relief shall not be regarded as interference in the armed conflict or as unfriendly acts. In the distribution of relief consignments, priority shall be given to those persons, such as children, expectant mothers, maternity cases and nursing mothers, who, under the Fourth Convention or under this Protocol, are to be accorded privileged treatment or special protection.
The Parties to the conflict and each High Contracting Party shall allow and facilitate rapid and unimpeded passage of all relief consignments, equipment and personnel provided in accordance with this Section, even if such assistance is destined for the civilian population of the adverse Party.
The Parties to the conflict and each High Contracting Party which allow the passage of relief consignments, equipment and personnel in accordance with paragraph 2
...
(b) may make such permission conditional on the distribution of this assistance being made under the local supervision of a Protecting Power;
(c) shall, in no way whatsoever, divert relief consignments from the purpose for which they are intended nor delay their forwarding, except in cases of urgent necessity in the interest of the civilian population concerned.
This rule, like the previous one, wants to allow humanitarian aid, but is concerned about it being seized for use in war. So, this rule introduces the notion of a "Protecting Power", which is a state that's not involved with the conflict.
Assuming the Geneva Conventions apply to Israel, then Israel does have an obligation. In the next two weeks, Israel has to give the ICRC a list of countries that Israel would trust to distribute humanitarian aid in Gaza. Hamas will try to find a country on the list that they find mutually agreeable.
When that happens, then Israel needs to let humanitarian aid come in under the supervision of a Protecting Power. But, until Hamas and Israel agree, there's no process for making sure that civilian aid actually reaches civilians, so Israel is within it's rights (under Article 70, anyway) to block humanitarian shipments that might help Hamas' war efforts.
Moving on, to ICRC's next article, "Starvation as a method of Warfare" I found two major citations. The first was "Article 54 - Protection of objects indispensable to the survival of the civilian population" of Additional Protocols 1, and the next was "Article 14 - Protection of objects indispensable to the survival of the civilian population" from Additional Protocols II.
These are pretty similar, and the relevant text reads:
Article 14 - Protection of objects indispensable to the survival of the civilian population
Starvation of civilians as a method of combat is prohibited. It is therefore prohibited to attack, destroy, remove or render useless, for that purpose, objects indispensable to the survival of the civilian population, such as foodstuffs, agricultural areas for the production of foodstuffs, crops, livestock, drinking water installations and supplies and irrigation works.
This specific rule is about the destruction of objects so doesn't seem directly relevant to blockades.
Obviously, this post is only looking at one source of international law. However, I think the 1949 convention makes it clear that the international community is aware of loopholes like "demand humanitarian aid and use it to feed a military" and will write treaties accordingly.
Sadly one of the more relevant analysis of the conflict and what does / does not actually amount to a war crimes. Blockades are nasty, even within the scopes of what are permissible, and that's when the restrictions do apply. However, Geneva convention restrictions are themselves often conditional, and restrictions do fall away quite often when given context, because as you say- they were written by people who understood the risk of loopholes, and were quite prepared to wage war in the face of those seeking to exploit them.
Let's consider pediatric medical supplies with minimal potential for military diversion (e.g., neonatal incubators). Let's further assume that pediatric health will be harmed without access to these supplies.
Under this framework, at the current time, is Israel obligated to permit their passage across its border?
If the supplies showed up at the border today, I'd expect Israel to claim something like:
We have good reason to believe those supplies will go missing. The area is nearly lawless. Medical supplies could be stolen or sabotaged for any number of reasons.
Then, they might also lean on the (omitted-for-space) passage in Article 23 which reads:
The Power which allows the passage of the consignments indicated in the first paragraph of this Article may make permission conditional on the distribution to the persons benefited thereby being made under the local supervision of the Protecting Powers.
Such consignments shall be forwarded as rapidly as possible, and the Power which permits their free passage shall have the right to prescribe the technical arrangements under which such passage is allowed.
It wouldn't feel that cynical for Israel to ask to have the neonatal incubators delivered by a neutral third party. Israel would want to have witnesses who could confirm that the incubators arrived intact and functional, if only so Israel could protect itself from accusations of wrongdoing.
Going by the spirit-of-the-law, Israel should make reasonable efforts to move quickly and find a neutral State that's willing use its military forces to deliver aid to the West Bank. When that happens, Israel is obliged to let the aid go through.
Going by the letter-of-the-law, Israel could probably drag the "Protecting Power" selection process out a fair bit. Israel has 2 weeks to give the Red Cross a list of "at least five" states that Israel would accept as a neutral third party. Hamas would need to approve a state from the list and the Red Cross would have to convince that state to get a detachment of military forces to the West Bank.
So, I don't think Israel would have an obligation to let the incubators in today. They'd have to let them in eventually, but the organization could take a few weeks if everyone's being reasonable and considerably longer if everyone's being unreasonable.
Why can't Palestinian civilians flee to Egypt across Gaza's southern border? What considerations or pressures (internal or external) prevent Egypt from granting entry now to Palestinian refugees?
Well, let’s say Egypt suddenly said anyone who wants to come can come. Ignoring the potential direct issues for Egypt, what might follow?
Israel would have (more of a) carte blanche to just indiscriminately whale on Gaza. After all, it would be easier to say that anyone who did not leave is a Hamas militant, or forced to stay by Hamas (so it’s Hamas who are responsible if they die)
It’s a fair assumption that anyone who left is never going to see their home again, unless Israel falls. Rest of the Arab world might hold Egypt partially liable for a new Nakba.
If sufficiently many leave, it would considerably advance the desired Israeli end state of a comfortable Jewish majority in the entire former
Mandatory Palestine, thus giving them impetus to formally annex it all and end the Palestinian dream for good.
Israel would have (more of a) carte blanche to just indiscriminately whale on Gaza. After all, it would be easier to say that anyone who did not leave is a Hamas militant, or forced to stay by Hamas (so it’s Hamas who are responsible if they die)
Prohibiting the exit of Palestinian civilians from Gaza because keeping these civilians in Gaza limits Israel's scope of military operation seems consistent with Israel's complaints about the use of Palestinian "human shields."
Rest of the Arab world might hold Egypt partially liable for a new Nakba.
It's hard for me to see the Arab world blaming Egypt for allowing refugees to exit a war zone. Many Palestinians were permitted to flee to Egypt in 1948. Does the Arab world hold Egypt partially liable for the original Nakba?
If sufficiently many [Palestinians] leave, it would considerably advance the desired Israeli end state of a comfortable Jewish majority in the entire former Mandatory Palestine.
Is "a Jewish majority in the entire former Mandatory Palestine" really the "desired Israeli end state"?
I'm not saying it's necessarily the correct or the most ethical choice for Egyptians, I was just trying to explain that there's an internal logic to it.
Many Palestinians were permitted to flee to Egypt in 1948. Does the Arab world hold Egypt partially liable for the original Nakba?
It would have been quite hard to do so in a situation where Egypt, and other Arab countries, were actively fighting against Israel. OTOH in current day numerous Arabs inside and outside Egypt already see the Egyptian government as the pawn of Israel and the West.
Is "a Jewish majority in the entire former Mandatory Palestine" really the "desired Israeli end state"?
I fail to see how it wouldn't be, especially for the Israeli Right, including Likud. They consistently talk of "Judea and Samaria" as a part of the Land of Israel, they expand settlements, they consistently repudiate any sort of a Palestinian state, they of course will absolutely not give up the idea of Israel as a Jewish state - what sort of an other end goal would there be?
Palestinian refugees attempted to overthrow the government of Jordan and take control of the Jordanian military, it was a pretty notable event in modern Arab history. Since then I think there's been some understandable reluctance from many Arab states to shelter the Palestinians. Egypt's military government overthrew the Muslim Brotherhood to take power, so I doubt they're eager to take in Hamas-friendly refugees who might bolster the ranks of the Ikhwan.
I think most of this is covered here if you read thru threads.
I’ll cover number 1
Egypt has a 20 ft wall above and below ground. Surprisingly Egypt doesn’t want a death cult in their territory. From as far as I can tell nobody wants them.
Thanks. I've read all the threads here, and I still don't have answers to these questions. I've seen plenty of confident assertions (of course), but they often conflict and typically lack support.
For example, to respond to your answer, I've seen suggestions here and elsewhere that America and Israel have exerted pressure on Egypt to not open their border with Gaza to an exodus of Palestinian refugees / an influx of humanitarian supplies. Is this claim totally without basis?
In the past they may have. In the current environment it seems like Egypt really doesn’t want them. Even if it came with a big western check.
One thought experience I’ve had is what would SBF do if his degen bets paid off. He’d probably be proposing writing a 50 billion check to resettle them . But I’m not sure who wants them. Long term would end the Palestinian/Israel issue which maybe is an area that could set off something cataclysmic for humanity.
The current Egyptian government somewhat recently had some troubles with an organization called the Muslim Brotherhood. In Gaza there is an organization called the Islamic Resistance Movement which started as a branch off that same Egyptian organization and currently exercises some amount of political authority in Gaza. So there are understandably some tensions between Egypt and Gaza right now beyond not wanting refugees.
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Notes -
Some narrow questions about the current conflict.
I have some narrow questions about the conflict that I'm having trouble getting good answers to. None of these is intended as a "gotcha."
Why can't Palestinian civilians flee to Egypt across Gaza's southern border? What considerations or pressures (internal or external) prevent Egypt from granting entry now to Palestinian refugees?
What is the status of the Israeli hostages? Should we believe that they're still alive? Are they assumed to all be held in Gaza? Are they being detained together? Who coordinates their care? Do we have any knowledge of their treatment in detention?
What is Hamas? Is it a political party? Is there separate civil and military leadership? Does it have a clear command chain? Are leaders identified publicly? Is it clear which particular leaders were likely involved in planning / authorizing Saturday's incursion into Israel? Do these leaders currently reside inside of Gaza? Are they in communication with one another, or are they isolated now? Do they continue coordinating activities, or are they relegated to being bystanders? Is there any line of communication open now between Israeli and Gazan political leadership? Leaving aside willingness, are there Gazan political leaders who would be capable of enforcing the Gazan side of a potential ceasefire?
What are the strategic objectives of Israel's current bombardment / siege of Gaza? Is it aimed at weakening military capabilities in preparation for a ground invasion / occupation? Is it aimed at weakening military capabilities to limit Hamas's ability to launch another strike against Israel? Is it bloodlust / punishment / revenge? Is it a show of force to warn other regional actors (from the West Bank, Iran, or Lebanon) to stay away? Is it intended to "break the will" of Gazans, so that popular support will wane for military strikes on Israel? Is it aimed at disincentivizing future military strikes on Israel (by impressing upon prospective actors that the consequences of such strikes will be severe)?
Is there significant continued Gazan military resistance to Israel's bombardment? Are missiles still being launched from Gazan territory? If so, are these coordinated actions, or are they actions taken at the initiative of small, independent groups of actors in Gaza?
If Israel's total blockade of the Gaza strip persists, how will the civilian population be affected? Clearly, medically-vulnerable people will be severely impacted in the immediate term. But over what timeframe will the general population face life-threatening hardship (and not simple inconvenience)?
Leaving aside ethical and moral obligations, is there a case that Israel has a proactive legal obligation to permit the influx of humanitarian supplies to Gaza along their shared border?
I assume that others here have their own narrow questions. If so, maybe they could go in this thread.
As mentioned by others, Egypt will not allow it.
We don't know. The hostages may be all dead, or being tortured, or killed in airstrikes, or kept safe in a bunker for negotiation leverage. Anything is possible.
Hamas has a separate political and military leadership structure. Yahya Sinwar is the political leader in Gaza and will almost certainly be killed (if he hasn't been already). Saleh al-Arouri is his deputy. I don't think Israel is interested in leaving anyone in the Gaza leadership alive to negotiate with. There are also Hamas officials living in countries like Qatar, Netanyahu has called for their host countries to be sanctioned if they don't expel them.
I believe the current primary goal of the airstrikes is to kill everyone in the Hamas leadership in Gaza: IDF Air Force Chief Maj.-Gen. Tomer Bar said on Thursday that he has a list of which Hamas officials masterminded and planned the invasion of southern Israel this past Saturday and that they will all disappear.
Hamas is continuing to launch rockets into Israel.
Who knows. It's not clear how much water and food they had stockpiled.
has been answered by @Kinoite much better than I could hope to.
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For #7: Israel has a legal obligation to allow humanitarian supplies, but only when there are controls in place to ensure that the food goes to civilians.
To investigate, I started with the Red Cross's articles: "Access for Humanitarian Relief to Civilians in Need" and "Starvation as a Method of Warfare"
These mostly reference rules from the Geneva conventions, specifically "Geneva Convention (IV) on Civilians, 1949", "Additional Protocol (I) to the Geneva Conventions, 1977" and "Additional Protocol (II) to the Geneva Conventions, 1977"
The 4th Geneva convention draws a distinction between nationals of a state that's signed on to the conventions, and nationals of other states Article 4, reads:
Palestine hasn't agreed to follow the conventions, which matters when we get to Article 23, the first article referenced by the Red Cross:
This article imposes two obligations. Countries must:
But Israel only needs to allow this aid in-as-far as Israel believes the aid will get to where it's supposed to go.
So, before Israel gets an obligation under Article 23, Hamas would need to commit to making sure that any aid shipments reached their intended recipients and didn't get used by non-civilians. If Hamas made that commitment, Israel would be obliged to feed kids and pregnant women.
Israel would only get an Article 23 obligation to allow aid targeted at adult civilians if Hamas (as that party controlling the Gaza strip) additionally agreed to follow the Geneva conventions.
But, the international community expanded these protections a bit in the additional protocols. The ICRC also cites Additional Protocol I, Article 70 - Relief Actions, which says
Israel doesn't currently occupy Gaza. When it does, Article 55 - Food and medical supplies for the population would kick in and oblige them to feed the occupied population. Until then, rule 70 seems to apply.
This rule, like the previous one, wants to allow humanitarian aid, but is concerned about it being seized for use in war. So, this rule introduces the notion of a "Protecting Power", which is a state that's not involved with the conflict.
Assuming the Geneva Conventions apply to Israel, then Israel does have an obligation. In the next two weeks, Israel has to give the ICRC a list of countries that Israel would trust to distribute humanitarian aid in Gaza. Hamas will try to find a country on the list that they find mutually agreeable.
When that happens, then Israel needs to let humanitarian aid come in under the supervision of a Protecting Power. But, until Hamas and Israel agree, there's no process for making sure that civilian aid actually reaches civilians, so Israel is within it's rights (under Article 70, anyway) to block humanitarian shipments that might help Hamas' war efforts.
Moving on, to ICRC's next article, "Starvation as a method of Warfare" I found two major citations. The first was "Article 54 - Protection of objects indispensable to the survival of the civilian population" of Additional Protocols 1, and the next was "Article 14 - Protection of objects indispensable to the survival of the civilian population" from Additional Protocols II.
These are pretty similar, and the relevant text reads:
This specific rule is about the destruction of objects so doesn't seem directly relevant to blockades.
Obviously, this post is only looking at one source of international law. However, I think the 1949 convention makes it clear that the international community is aware of loopholes like "demand humanitarian aid and use it to feed a military" and will write treaties accordingly.
Sadly one of the more relevant analysis of the conflict and what does / does not actually amount to a war crimes. Blockades are nasty, even within the scopes of what are permissible, and that's when the restrictions do apply. However, Geneva convention restrictions are themselves often conditional, and restrictions do fall away quite often when given context, because as you say- they were written by people who understood the risk of loopholes, and were quite prepared to wage war in the face of those seeking to exploit them.
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Thank you, this is an extraordinary answer.
Let's consider pediatric medical supplies with minimal potential for military diversion (e.g., neonatal incubators). Let's further assume that pediatric health will be harmed without access to these supplies.
Under this framework, at the current time, is Israel obligated to permit their passage across its border?
If the supplies showed up at the border today, I'd expect Israel to claim something like:
Then, they might also lean on the (omitted-for-space) passage in Article 23 which reads:
It wouldn't feel that cynical for Israel to ask to have the neonatal incubators delivered by a neutral third party. Israel would want to have witnesses who could confirm that the incubators arrived intact and functional, if only so Israel could protect itself from accusations of wrongdoing.
Going by the spirit-of-the-law, Israel should make reasonable efforts to move quickly and find a neutral State that's willing use its military forces to deliver aid to the West Bank. When that happens, Israel is obliged to let the aid go through.
Going by the letter-of-the-law, Israel could probably drag the "Protecting Power" selection process out a fair bit. Israel has 2 weeks to give the Red Cross a list of "at least five" states that Israel would accept as a neutral third party. Hamas would need to approve a state from the list and the Red Cross would have to convince that state to get a detachment of military forces to the West Bank.
So, I don't think Israel would have an obligation to let the incubators in today. They'd have to let them in eventually, but the organization could take a few weeks if everyone's being reasonable and considerably longer if everyone's being unreasonable.
This response is extremely helpful, thank you.
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Well, let’s say Egypt suddenly said anyone who wants to come can come. Ignoring the potential direct issues for Egypt, what might follow?
Israel would have (more of a) carte blanche to just indiscriminately whale on Gaza. After all, it would be easier to say that anyone who did not leave is a Hamas militant, or forced to stay by Hamas (so it’s Hamas who are responsible if they die)
It’s a fair assumption that anyone who left is never going to see their home again, unless Israel falls. Rest of the Arab world might hold Egypt partially liable for a new Nakba.
If sufficiently many leave, it would considerably advance the desired Israeli end state of a comfortable Jewish majority in the entire former Mandatory Palestine, thus giving them impetus to formally annex it all and end the Palestinian dream for good.
Prohibiting the exit of Palestinian civilians from Gaza because keeping these civilians in Gaza limits Israel's scope of military operation seems consistent with Israel's complaints about the use of Palestinian "human shields."
It's hard for me to see the Arab world blaming Egypt for allowing refugees to exit a war zone. Many Palestinians were permitted to flee to Egypt in 1948. Does the Arab world hold Egypt partially liable for the original Nakba?
Is "a Jewish majority in the entire former Mandatory Palestine" really the "desired Israeli end state"?
I'm not saying it's necessarily the correct or the most ethical choice for Egyptians, I was just trying to explain that there's an internal logic to it.
It would have been quite hard to do so in a situation where Egypt, and other Arab countries, were actively fighting against Israel. OTOH in current day numerous Arabs inside and outside Egypt already see the Egyptian government as the pawn of Israel and the West.
I fail to see how it wouldn't be, especially for the Israeli Right, including Likud. They consistently talk of "Judea and Samaria" as a part of the Land of Israel, they expand settlements, they consistently repudiate any sort of a Palestinian state, they of course will absolutely not give up the idea of Israel as a Jewish state - what sort of an other end goal would there be?
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Palestinian refugees attempted to overthrow the government of Jordan and take control of the Jordanian military, it was a pretty notable event in modern Arab history. Since then I think there's been some understandable reluctance from many Arab states to shelter the Palestinians. Egypt's military government overthrew the Muslim Brotherhood to take power, so I doubt they're eager to take in Hamas-friendly refugees who might bolster the ranks of the Ikhwan.
Palestinian refugees were also a significant causal factor in the Lebanese Civil War.
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I think most of this is covered here if you read thru threads.
I’ll cover number 1
Egypt has a 20 ft wall above and below ground. Surprisingly Egypt doesn’t want a death cult in their territory. From as far as I can tell nobody wants them.
Thanks. I've read all the threads here, and I still don't have answers to these questions. I've seen plenty of confident assertions (of course), but they often conflict and typically lack support.
For example, to respond to your answer, I've seen suggestions here and elsewhere that America and Israel have exerted pressure on Egypt to not open their border with Gaza to an exodus of Palestinian refugees / an influx of humanitarian supplies. Is this claim totally without basis?
In the past they may have. In the current environment it seems like Egypt really doesn’t want them. Even if it came with a big western check.
One thought experience I’ve had is what would SBF do if his degen bets paid off. He’d probably be proposing writing a 50 billion check to resettle them . But I’m not sure who wants them. Long term would end the Palestinian/Israel issue which maybe is an area that could set off something cataclysmic for humanity.
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The current Egyptian government somewhat recently had some troubles with an organization called the Muslim Brotherhood. In Gaza there is an organization called the Islamic Resistance Movement which started as a branch off that same Egyptian organization and currently exercises some amount of political authority in Gaza. So there are understandably some tensions between Egypt and Gaza right now beyond not wanting refugees.
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