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Notes -
By "win re-election", do you mean against another Democrat or against a Republican? I was under the impression that absent extremely-weird circumstances California was locked-down Democrat.
California has a "Jungle Primary" system for some positions where the top two primary vote receivers get on the ballot regardless of party. Dianne Feinstein (D) ran against Kevin de León (D) in 2018.
So a D vs D election is likely.
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Against another democrat- appointed candidates lose primaries regularly. California electing a statewide Republican would be extremely weird.
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The appointment does not supersede the usual election formalities. So there will be a primary and general election. It's just that, as you note, primary opponents will be discouraged and the general will reliably elect the Dem candidate. It's not like a Harlem Globetrotters game; they actually do have to hold a real election.
Keeping in mind that California is so Dem controlled and has a top-two general so the general would be between the top two candidates from the open primary and would both very likely be Dems.
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Cali might have different dynamics, but as a general rule of thumb appointed senate seats have more competitive primaries in the party that the appointee belongs to than a typical incumbent seat.
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