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non_radical_centrist  1yr ago (astralcodexten.com)   2457 thread views

Book Review: Elon Musk[Scott Alexander]

astralcodexten.com

Scott Alexander’s review of a 2015 biography of Elon Musk. Elon Musk, to me, is one of the world’s most confusing people. He’s simultaneously both one of the smartest people in the world, creating billions of dollars of value in companies like Tesla and SpaceX, and one of the dumbest, in burning billions on Twitter. Scott’s review I think is a good explanation of what’s up with Musk.

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one of the dumbest, in burning billions on Twitter

Why do you think it's dumb? I define "dumb" as having a goal, perform an action that is supposed to achieve the goal, but actually does not, in an obvious way, and likely to place one further from the goal than it was before the action, and that result has been easily predictable and pre-destined before the action was taken. Is your definition different? If not, then which goal do you think Musk had and which action was "dumb"?

I think Musk's goal was a combination of a) make money, b) further free speech, and c) be a cultural icon with lots of positive attention.

He failed catastrophically at making money on the purchase. He had some modest success at furthering free speech, but I don't think it was worth billions. He has certainly gained lots of attention but most of it was negative, maybe he still considers that a win, but personally I think he could've handled the PR much better with a bit more forethought.

I think Musk could've done much better at all three goals if he spent some more time thinking through what he wanted to do with Twitter before taking the CEO position and preparing more. And I think he would've been much better off if he just never bought Twitter and instead spent the money on some other project.

He failed catastrophically at making money on the purchase.

He did, but there was a general tech stock collapse after he locked in the Twitter price. People who dislike Musk love to act like he's responsible for the crash. However, Spotify, Shopify, and many others has more spectacular falls in that same time period.

He had some modest success at furthering free speech, but I don't think it was worth billions.

Let's assume you don't think it was worth billions, but Musk did. Who do you think is a better expert on relative worth of Musk's billions vs increase in free speech - you or Musk, the owner of the billions?

He has certainly gained lots of attention but most of it was negative

Why do you think it's bad for him? From what we can observe on Twitter, Musk loves to pick a fight.

And I think he would've been much better off if he just never bought Twitter

Obviously Musk disagrees (otherwise he wouldn't buy Twitter), but that's not the point. The point is why it is "dumb". I still don't see any basis for this - you may disagree about what Musk goals should be, but I think you must allow him to choose his own goals, even is you disapprove of them, and this disapproval should not count as him being "dumb".

Obviously Musk disagrees (otherwise he wouldn't buy Twitter)

I think Musk was mistaken about what would happen when he would buy Twitter. He was expecting it to not drop in value, and it did. If it was possible to get a refund on his purchase, I expect he 100% would. That is what makes him dumb in this context imo.

Maybe I’m wrong about Musk’s internal beliefs and values, I’m not an expert in Musk’s psyche. But it’s the conclusion I’ve drawn from what I’ve seen.

It dropped a lot (mostly?) before he bought it, at the same time Meta and everyone else did -- this is why he rather notably wanted to either get out of the deal or negotiate a price discount during due diligence.

If not, then which goal do you think Musk had

This is the question.

Make money? Promote "free speech" as principle? Fight "wokeness"? Fight for world peace? Promote his own agenda (whatever it is at the moment)? Probably Elon himself is not entirely sure.

and which action was "dumb"?

Overestimating himself and underestimating his enemies. This can happen to everyone and especially to genuinely great and accomplished men.

That's awfully vague. You can apply it to almost any person - any person doing something would fail at some aspect of that, and once they did, you could say they are "dumb" for "overestimating themselves". This kind of definition does not seem to have a lot of selective power - if it can happen to anyone, then what's the point of using it, we could just say "anyone".

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