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Transnational Thursdays 6
I generally won’t cover Europe here, mostly because I don’t follow it that closely, so input from our European/Europe-follower user base would definitely add value.
Guatemala
Guatemalan elections will be going to a runoff between the establishment center left and the progressive left. Former First Lady Sandra Torres has come in second place in the previous two elections and will be squaring up against the anti-corruption progressive Bernardo Arevalo, son of the famous Juan Jose Arevalo, the first democratically elected leader of Guatemala. Their parties only received respectively 15% and 12.2% among the 20+ other contenders, so it’s hard to predict how the final tallies will shake out, though polls favor Arevalo (Torres is unpopular in the populous Guatemala City) which would be a major upset. Notably, Zury Ríos, daughter of the former dictator Efrían Ríos Montt and previous frontrunner, did not make it to the runoff. Corruption and fraud accusations have abounded, as well as frustration with the government’s decision to bar popular anti-establishment candidates in the lead up to the election:
Interestingly, his exclusion (he was previously the frontrunner) will likely mean that Guatemala will have some flavor of left leaning government no matter who wins, which is probably not what the current conservative ruling party was hoping for.
El Salvador
Bukele is officially running for reelection, against the law of El Salvadoran constitution. This is not much of a surprise from a leader who sent the military into the legislature after they voted against him and has frequently ignored his own Supreme Court. A court packed with his allies has ruled that it’s cool though, and his substantial popularity renders the legal technicalities kind of irrelevant. He will be going against a big tent coalition of the former mainstream right and left wing parties.
Honduras
Related, Bukele’s crackdown on the gangs has attracted supporters across Central America (the now failed Zury Ríos in Guatemala ran on copying his security approach) and Honduras is one glimpse at what that looks like. They have declared a state of Emergency which suspends some constitutional rights and deployed the military in their war against the gangs. Escalating violence in the conflict has also led to curfews being declared in two cities. Left wing President Xiomara Castro originally actually ran on a policy of demilitarizing the police, but following a deadly gang-driven prison riot she has officially handed over control of the prison system to the military.
Sierra Leone
The reigning President Maada Bio won another term with 56%, narrowly passing the 55% threshold needed to avoid a runoff election. Watchdogs have called the count out for fraudulence and the “US, UK, Ireland, Germany France and EU Delegation” have acknowledged irregularities but seem to be tacitly supporting the outcome. Violence has been scattered but not severe.
Mali
Mali’s military junta held a referendum for a new constitution, supposedly to restore the democratic process. The referendum passed with 97% in favor; Observers are unimpressed:
Also, the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) is one of the longest standing and most dangerous UN Missions. Originally deployed in 2013 to help the government with the Taureg rebels in the northeast, relationships have deteriorated with the government following the 2020 military coup. The junta government famously forced France to leave last year and earlier this month demanded that MINUSMA leave as well. However, the sudden departure has now been delayed. While I can’t find anyone saying it specifically, I feel like the government has to be hedging their bets till they see how the situation falls out with the Wagner Group, who have largely come to supplant France and even now control many of the Uranium mines the French previously guarded so closely. Following the events of Saturday every host country is curious to see if Wagner will remain a stable partner, (you know, stable-ish), especially in the Central African Republic where the ruling regime largely owes their survival to Wagner.
Pakistan
Pakistan draws nearer to securing a $6 billion bailout from the IMF after passing a budget mostly in accordance with IMF recommendations. They have been in economic turmoil since the coup, of course worsened by the floods, and have been kept afloat by assistance from “ China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates”.
The crackdown on Imran Khan’s party, PTI, continues, with many arrested or driven to switch sides. You can hear him speak about it if you want.
Japan
Japan has reestablished Korea as a most favored nation trading partner, hopefully finally ending their last four years of tension. The source is Japanese reparations for Korean workers and particularly for Korean comfort women during the Empire. Japan’s position is that they already paid reparations during the Park Chung-Hee era; Korea’s position is the money went to the ruling class rather than the victims (though supposedly a lot was invested into the economy); Japan’s counter-position is, well, you shouldn’t have done that. The current nationalist party in Korea is ironically more pro-Japan and has worked towards reestablishing their relationships; security collaboration will increase as well.
Japan is famous for dropping Prime Ministers at the drop of a hat, making the Italian government look like a beacon of stability in comparison (in fairness, in Japan it’s mostly the same party), but astoundingly PM Fumio Kishida has survived both the assassination of Abe and the attempt on his own life, and looks poised to become one of the more important post-war leaders for his security policy. Kishida in his role of Foreign Minister and Defense Minister was known as a dove, but has ironically presided over the largest military buildup in post war history, with a projected 67% increase by 2027. His ability to push this through is of course shaped by general rising fear of China, but imo is also partially because his historical aversion to conflict has left normal critics reassured he won’t abuse a larger military. He has also strengthened ties with the QUAD and as mentioned, is heading towards security reconciliation with Korea as well.
Saudi Arabia
The Yemeni War is not yet over, but both Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have largely honored their ceasefire, and for the first time in seven years Saudi Arabia partially relaxed its blockade to allow a few Yemenis to make the Hajj. The Foreign Ministers of Saudi Arabia and Iran also met again recently and affirmed their desire to continue diplomatic relations. China brokered the deal and Saudi Arabia also recently completed a“$5.6bn deal with a Chinese company to manufacture electric vehicles” and is trying to boost Chinese tourism, along with its larger push to become a sports hub. Relations with other countries seem mostly positive-ish lately, as these things go for the House of Al-Saud, with Riyadh even reversing its previous stance and allowing the ascension of Syria back to the Arab League.
I'm surprised nobody is talking about the riots in France given how dramatic the imagery is. You've got rioters throwing grenades, brandishing shotguns, trying to rob a bank and setting police stations on fire.
The triggering incident was the fatal shooting of a black teenager who tried to drive off after the police pulled him over for driving dangerously. Riots are mostly located in Paris but have spread to other cities like Lyon, Marseille and Toulouse, with other incidents in smaller cities. Marseille has also banned public protests and stopped public transport. Iirc the military was called in to prevent a prison break in Paris.
Zemmour is saying it's a race war.
Mostly because it is nothing new there?
Though for obvious use of that: Polish PM account published comparison of the same day in Poland and France (obviously propaganda, but making a good point. Though Poland has large scale migration but at least for now done in reasonable way, but in France/Germany problems also appeared with some delay AFAIK).
https://polskieradio24.pl/5/1222/artykul/3199995,nie-chcemy-takich-scen-na-polskich-ulicach-premier-mowi-o-bezpieczenstwie-i-publikuje-specjalne-wideo
https://old.reddit.com/r/poland/comments/14nno44/the_prime_minister_of_poland_released_this_video/
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How do these compare to the retirement riots from a few months ago? Is it any of it sort of residual anti-government energy or is it as different a group of rioters as it is an initial cause?
They're far more immediately violent and disorganized from what I've seen.
My French is terrible and I've only talked to English speakers (still mostly French people with good English) here but anecdotally everyone had a strong opinion on Macron, whereas this time around people aren't discussing policy and are just hoping the violence doesn't get worse.
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Surely there’s more nuance to Korea’s position than this, because Japan is straightforwardly correct that corruption in Korea in the 80s is not their problem, it’s Korea’s.
Is it just me or does it seem like Saudi Arabia is going to have issues sourcing manpower for high tech manufacturing and that convincing non-Muslims to visit it is a tall order? I mean it’s 120 degrees there during the day and fun is illegal, aside from the hajj or maybe some Muslim scholars it seems like no one actually wants to visit it.
The Korean position is that:
Korea was a dictatorship at the time (lead by a notorious nipponophile and collaborator in the Japanese occupation) so the democratic populace, and especialy the victims, had no say in the 1965 Treaty, and
Japan has accepted moral responsibility for their human rights abuses so they have no grounds to deny legal responsibility for them as well, especially considering they did pay (some) compensation to (some of) their victims in the other colonies in the Treaty of San Francisco (which Korea did not sign). Instead, the original reparations were based solely on property damage claims as opposed to personal damages/human rights violation; the UN Commission on Human Rights backed Korea up on this distinction.
The catch is that in the negotiations for the 65 Treaty Japan actually did propose compensating victims but the Korean government deferred, and the agreement specifically forgoes the Korean government pursuing further claims on personal damages. In 2018 the Korean Supreme Court ruled that the Treaty didn't prevent individuals from pursuing compensation, which is how we got the successive cases this has centered around, and the last five years of tension and trade war.
It's extremely understandable that the victims are upset they were never compensated, but the fault isn't really on Japan's end, and the Wikipedia page at least for the 1965 treaty lists much of what the original reparations were spent on, and largely it does seem like it was invested into the economy. Anecdotally, an exerpt from Studwell's "How Asia Works":
The issue of direct payment is also complicated by there not actually being that many living victims around to be compensated anymore. There's only a little over 1000 left alive and the forced labor case was from only 15 plaintiffs, 12 of whom died during the years the case was in court.
I might be giving uncharitable coverage because I am not hugely sympathetic to the Korean position here; Japan has tried to meet them in what seems like good faith on this issue several times despite the treaty. In 94 Japan set up the Asian Women's Fund, which combined a mix of state funding and private donations and did issue direct compensation to some victims and in 2015 they actually did agree to an updated reparations package but it was scuttled on Korea's end. Meanwhile, the Korean government fairly transparently starts talking about comfort women to distract the population whenever they're doing a poor job at home.
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As a tank and boat autist; the Japanese double plus rearmament is interesting to watch. They want a bunch of capabilities nobody has; specially in terms of low manpower high tech shit and missile defense.
Aegis still king; but USA can't make a fuckin smoll boat anymore 'cause of capitalism. The state kept bailing out the aerospace dudes over and over and over, but let the soggy dudes go to hell/ china.
Jappan actually still has a pretty good domestic civilian shipbuilding sector; so we might see some cool shit form them their. They have a somwhat decent modern history of it lol
I'd love to see a detailed breakdown of how and why US military industrial capability has declined. If you're so inclined.
I'm not, but the basics:
We still build airliners commercially, so we can build fighters.
We still build cars commercially, so we can build tanks.
We still build (tech bullshit) commercially so we can build systems, radars, etc.
We don't build ships commercially, so whenever we try to build ships that aren't super special one offs (nuclear subs, nuclear aircraft carriers, etc.) that are already inherently expensive disasters and you just have to accept it, It's an expensive disaster. Eg, Zumwalt et all.
US military industrial capacity hasn't actually meaningfully declined in most ways. We still can produce enough to arm ourselves and fill orders from foreign buyers and we are world leaders in quantity production of planes that don't suck, excepting ships where we can only build space age nuclear powered wunderwaffe or fucking disasterpiece boondoggles.
That said, you don't know how good the foundation is until the earth starts shaking. Lots of (wrong) people said that Russia had gotten some of it's soviet mojo back ala-making cool shit, which did not actually happen when they got put to the test.
Defense economics info is dry as hell to read; but there are some good youtube channels on it (Perun, for example).
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It's definitely interesting watching a country that can put the bulk of its defense budget straight into the navy. Got anything you recommend reading on the more unique stuff they're doing?
They actually published all the documents online; I think they are constitutionally required to or some shit.
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I'm sorry to disapoint but I don't have a ton to stay. Expanded immigration is an Abe-era legacy to help try to boost the economy and address their crazy age demographic pyramid. A decent amount remains lower paid labor from Southeast Asia (Japan ironically used to bring in Indonesians to do rice farming and now Indonesia has serious labor shortages in rice farming) though Abe did expedite pathways to permanent residence for high skill guest workers (actual citizenship remains mega hard). For scale though, the numbers are still pretty small; 2 million foreign born out of a population of 125 million, or 1.6% of the country (US is 13.6% for comparison) and a lot of them are on temporary visas. Their population is notoriously aging and birthrates are low though so they will have to address this one way or the other.
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