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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   32790 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of June 12, 2023

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I don't see how Ukraine maintains itself as a functional nation as their demographics become untenable to support economic activity. Unless perhaps all the other nations of the world commit to pouring massive ongoing support into the country.

Ukraine's population is now only 29 million and fertility has dropped below 1 per woman, nearing South Korean levels. It's fair to say this is their final fight.

Ukraine as a country will probably massively shrink after this war and with large parts gobbled up by their neighbours in the long term. I suspect Western Ukraine, which is ground zero for Ukrainian nationalism, will remain independent because nobody wants to deal with a recalcitrant population.

Add to that that western Ukraine’s prewar fertility rate was by European standards pretty decent- the Galicians were going to dominate Ukraine anyways in a few years.

Yep.

As I said I'm fatalistic about it now. Not just because of these stats, but because Russia itself surely KNOWS these stats, and thus they can calculate that they'll outlast the Ukrainians on the longer timescale so long as they are willing to commit to the conflict.

Puts a slightly different spin on "Demographics is destiny" than usual. The massive hole this war blows in their birthrate is going to screw them over regardless of how much goodwill, military aid, or relief work the receive.

Depressing thought that even if Ukraine scores a compelling victory, it's an incredibly phyrric one in the big picture.

But all the focus is on the short term project of expelling the Russians, so the popular conception seems to be that once Ukraine 'wins' we can just help rebuild and get them back on their feet.

but because Russia itself surely KNOWS these stats

I'm afraid almost nobody bases strategy on that long scale. If we did, we would have used human cloning etc.

I mean, it seems likely that Russia chose to initiate the invasion when they did because 2022 was the last year before their population of fighting-age males starts to drop off

It was quite literally now or never, from that perspective. Don't have to project far in the future to see what's happening now, just notice the trajectory.

their population of fighting-age males starts to drop off

Depends on exact way you define "fighting age". If you define it as 18-27, then it will increase for some years in near future, when people born in 2006-2016 enter service.

Also, Ukraine has noticeably worse fertility that Russia, even if the large portion of that difference is Russia's ethnic minorities. You don't need to have much army -- just more than opponent.

All of this about fuss about Russia's falling TFR is insignificant compared to what difference of having competent generals in army makes.

The real problem for Russia was Ukraine's ongoing effort to reinforce Ukrainian identity, and it looks attacking in 2022 already was too late.

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