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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   3298 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for April 2, 2023

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

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What do you consider a collapse? How far back will civilization regress? Stone Age? Iron Age? Early Modern Age? Steam Age? Atomic Age?

I think population decline will hit us quicker than fossil fuels. P.R. of China speedran the demographic transition, but so did South Korea. African countries will do the same in the next 50-70 years.

I think @Stefferi had some stats about how the global fertility rate is below replacement because of the mortality rates in poorer countries, despite technically being above 2 per female.

I think it's basically on the edge, might dip below replacement this year or somewhere in the close future. I discussed this on Twitter a while ago and it seems the mortality rates are a bit lower than I though. The point is, though, that while generally replacement rate is considered to be 2,1, it's a bit higher than this globally, maybe like 2,2 or 2,3, and the global fertility rate is pretty close to this already.

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