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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   36040 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of March 20, 2023

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Expanding on your comment, it’s exciting to think that this style of individual greatness could be unlocked again by these sorts of tools.

Before these generative AIs came along it seemed tautological that to build a modern software business you needed at least two or three people - usually someone to handle the business side and someone to handle the software side. I’m not as hyperbolic as some saying we won’t need SWEs anymore, but the barrier to building a working (or at least monetizable) software product just got much, much lower.

I wonder if we’ll see individuals launching software startups and actually getting to product market fit or profitability entirely solo?

Counter theory, the idea that it was locked to begin with, that we had seen the "end of history", was always a lie.

I agree. I never said that the individual man (or women or person or whatever) doesn’t move the world on the force of their will. I think it absolutely happens!

Folks like Musk and Bezos are easy to point to, but in modernity too many get lost due to complexity. A great example is our own Yudkowsky! I don’t like him or his views, but you have to admit the man is seven and has been damn influential.

Sam Altman also comes to mind.

Anyway, my point is that even if a great man existed and wanted to drive a software startup through force of will he could do it, but would at least need a partner because right now it is infeasible to both create/maintain a software product and massive scale a company. The calculus on how much one person can get done is now shifting, so I’d imagine that an individual could do even more.

Realistically it’ll still shake out that a 2-3 person founding team is still more effective I’m sure. But a boy can dream.

I’m not as hyperbolic as some saying we won’t need SWEs anymore, but the barrier to building a working (or at least monetizable) software product just got much, much lower.

With the corresponding oversupply of -> demolition of Western SWE salaries all outsourcing is dead within the decade.

I'm not concerned for countries that already have a good population:opportunity ratio like the US, but I am very much concerned about the countries whose ratio is extraordinarily poor, particularly India. Tech only really helps you accelerate existing productivity; you can't accelerate it if you don't have any.

I'm not at all sure that is true. There is so much software development that isn't getting done currently because there aren't enough (sufficiently competent) developers. I could easily see this just leading to an explosion of SW development being done rather than developers going without a job, at least in the medium term.

I definitely see revaluing of competences within the SWE space though.

Tech only really helps you accelerate existing productivity; you can't accelerate it if you don't have any.

Can you please elaborate on this? Coming at it from a different angle, I get the opposite result. Undeveloped countries that import advanced tech see GDP growth that far exceeds that of already developed countries.

This is why developing countries tend to experience a "middle income trap" which happens when they can no longer rapidly develop by simply importing already mature technology.

Tech only really helps you accelerate existing productivity

I mean this is true in some sense, but once you have global markets and the internet doesn’t that break down a bit? Sure countries in Africa with little to no digital infrastructure will probably fail to benefit from AI anytime soon, but I’d imagine India is well over the point where the rising tide will lift its boat.

If generative AI makes good on the promise of generating massive new amounts wealth, I’d argue that will be a boon for almost all of the developed and developing world. More economic value tends to spill over into positive effects, and as markets are more globalized that spreads broadly.

I’m not convinced outsourcing is dead - if anything labor cost will become even more expensive in some areas. Not sure about SWE.

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