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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   32966 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of February 13, 2023

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Pretty sure the anti-trans NYT people would universally hold to 'trans women are women'. I don't see that going 'out the window'.

Not sure precisely what "rude, but not beyond the pale" means. Most trans people don't go into screeching fits of rage when misgendered, that is (I don't like saying this!) mostly an internet thing. Many of them are often misgendered by e.g. family members and go along with it.

I think many sports already don't allow transwoman athletes in female leagues, but could be wrong. Either way, that one seems plausible, although not any moreso than a week ago. I'd guess changes to prisons won't happen, but it's sufficiently noncentral to the trans movement that it might.

"The amount of minors being referred to gender clinics drops to around 2010 levels" - I don't see that happening. Most of the increase is caused not by lowered thresholds by medical professionals, but massively increasing interest in transitioning by minors (they learn about it via the internet or irl friends). So pulling back to 2010 levels would require much more restrictive standards.

Pretty sure the anti-trans NYT people would universally hold to 'trans women are women'. I don't see that going 'out the window'.

"Going out the window" means you're not going to have that argument thrown in your face if you disagree about letting trans people into opposite sex spaces, that you won't be forced to recite the slogan, and that you won't be cancelled for denying it.

Not sure precisely what "rude, but not beyond the pale" means.

It means you won't be able to whip up a mob to go after someone who does it.

Most trans people don't go into screeching fits of rage when misgendered

"Most" trans people are irrelevant. Like I said many times before I don't believe in the "democratic model" of society. It's the leadership of trans activists that's relevant.

I think many sports already don't allow transwoman athletes in female leagues, but could be wrong.

Yeah, because that was the status quo pre-trans activism. I'm saying we're going back to it.

I don't see that happening. Most of the increase is caused not by lowered thresholds by medical professionals, but massively increasing interest in transitioning by minors (they learn about it via the internet or irl friends).

Funny, out of all the points this one is the one I'm the most confident about, and your arguments is precisely why I think it will go down. Yes, medical professionals have no way of telling whether someone actually has gender dysphoria or not, so the increase most likely had nothing to do with the medical / psychological condition being more prevalent, or more detected than before. The majority of referrals to gender clinics are between ages 12-16, with a massive drop-off around 18 years old. It is far more likely that the whole thing is a social trend, and all social trends are eventually replaced with new ones.

I'm sorry, the referrals to a gender clinic go DOWN at 18? That's very surprising to me. What about all the closested trans people with conservative parents that are finally able to make their own choices when they turn 18? Shouldn't it go up?

They desist. Turns out for most marginalized people, getting away from high school greatly improves the quality of their life.

Time for my regularly scheduled link to Tavistock data. The drop off begins at 17. This is the UK but I've seen similar age profile from a gender clinic in the US.

What you describe may still be happening, it's just their numbers are dwarfed by the number of minors.

Headline: "Referrals to GIDs level off in 2018-19"

Numbers

Should read "Referrals of males to GIDs level off in 2018-19" -- the tomboy genocide continues apace.

I should be rather interested to see crosstabs for age/sex -- not that we will.

I've argued this before, but turning 18 does not magically grant one the actual ability to act on the agency they're legally considered responsible enough to have. Many kids who reach that age may still be stuck at home, especially in this modern era.

And how does this explain there being more referrals for 12-16 year olds?

On that, I'm not terribly sure. I just wanted to point out that reality doesn't reflect GSYM's model.

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