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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   29600 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of February 6, 2023

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The article linked shows that correlation between WalkScore™, the propriatery metric chosen by authors to measure walkability, and violent crime per 100000 residents, is -.039. As authors didn't put any stars or pluses next to it, which is their notation for highly statiscally signifcant finds, measured by the p-value, I assume p>.1.

Also the area which the authors examined was Louisville, KY, thus making this study hardly comprehensive.

It seems like junk. 'Proprietary index'. -.039 correlation.

That's almost as much BS as the guns / homicide rate correlation of .02 .

Real correlations in social science and criminology are something like the correlation between black population and homicide rate, a very robust .8 .

Albuquerque has a combination grid and non-grid city plan in the uptown which was built post-WWII. Every half-mile is an E/W or N/S boulevard, and within each square half-mile is a neighborhood.

The neighborhoods with less crime are not internally gridded; the streets are curves and swooshes which are hard to drive through at speed. The International District, still called the War Zone by everyone except city officials and the nightly news, is full of heavily gridded residential neighborhoods, six-home single-story apartment buildings, and no services except on the half-mile major roads. The Wal-Mart which serves the War Zone is shutting down due to high crime.

Density isn't enough for a high walk score; you also need certain amenities within walking distance, and criminals tend to drive off said amenities.

Authoritative list of said amenities, for anyone who's interested (for a different, but similar, walkability metric that's less opaque)

  • Office supplies, stationery, and gift stores
  • Accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping, and payroll services
  • Elementary and secondary schools
  • Florists

All known hotbeds of crime.

Yes, if you want to look at the effect of density on crime, start by looking at the correlation between density and crime; don't use a proxy like WalkScore.

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