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My parents are in an arranged marriage and it's been pretty heartbreaking. My father is psycho but my mother feels that the crushing weight of extended family makes getting divorced impossible. So color me skeptical by anecdata.
Are we sure that we're not mistaking long lasting and happier with trapped and miserable?
And my parents and uncles/aunts all had arranged marriages and they're all going pretty damn well. The only one which is (from external appearances) going less well (and where she has to work because he doesn't earn enough to support a family on his own) is the one where my grandparents were reluctant on the match initially but eventually gave in to her protestations. Our anecdata clashes, now what?
The real point is that marraiges are very varied and come in happy/unhappy variants in all systems. A ton of western marriages are also unhappy. The percentage of unhappy marriages in all systems is so high that anecdata is pretty much useless and you need to look at generalised statistics.
The data on arranged marriage happiness is sparse (this is an area no modern day sociologist wishing to stay in the good graces of Woke Inc. will touch with a 10 ft barge pole) but from the few studies out there results either show increased long term happiness (10+ years down the line) in arranged marriages or no difference. None of the studies are particularly high quality, but they all seem to find an effect in the same direction (arranged is better) when they find an effect For instance here's one I just found right now by Googling: https://twu-ir.tdl.org/bitstream/handle/11274/11516/KAZEMI-MOHAMMADI-DISSERTATION-2019.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
It's some dude's PhD thesis where he shows that on average arranged marriages long term have higher levels of intimacy, passion and commitment, then tests arranged vs free choice marriages on MSI-R (an inventory of marriage stability) and finds that on most counts arranged marriages are more stable, with the only exception being sexual dissatisfaction (higher in arranged marraiges), but this is 1 item vs 10 other items that all show no difference or worse outcomes in free choice marriages. It's not particularly high quality (n=180 and the couples are all from the subcontinent/middle east basically) but it's weak evidence in that direction, and pretty much all the evidence there is currently on this quesiton is either saying no difference or pointing this way, there's almost nothing saying free choice marriages are long term better.
I'll check out the PhD thesis but still color me skeptical. My mother would tell anyone who asked that she was happily married.
Additionally, the way I know of arranged marriages is in a cultural context that includes a high degree of honor violence. So I have kneejerk disgust feelings around the whole part and parcel.
There are probably confounders out the ass here as well. Is it that the arranged marriages are higher quality, or the fact that people who practice them are a close knit tribe / large extended family with high support / super gung ho religious together / not poor and closer to dynastically wealthy?
I'll come back with an EDIT if the thesis updates me.
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It only has to be better than what we have for his argument to work.
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