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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   4067 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for January 29, 2023

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

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What's up with the apparent Israeli attack on Iranian military facilities? Surely that's an act of war? Any chance of retaliation/escalation?

I've been meaning to write at greater length on the concept of rejection of process and how it has affected the traditions around declaring and waging war. But the short version is that for a variety of reasons, the concept of "act of war" is basically meaningless in today's world.

If it's perceived as being in your country's overall advantage to go to war, or maybe just to the advantage of a particular leadership clique, then you will wage war. Something will be perceived as an act of war, or false-flagged, or they'll just do it anyways and count on nobody really noticing or caring. If it's not, then all sorts of things that could be considered acts of war may be ignored, or responded to in kind only rather than escalated. I don't think either Israel or Iran have any interest in or real ability to wage proper war against each other, so it won't happen.

Surely that's an act of war

More than what has been done by both sides already? For all intents and purposes they are at a low intensity war.

Surely that's an act of war?

Yes.

Any chance of retaliation/escalation?

Basically zero. Iran has more to lose than to gain from it.

It was an act of retaliation for a terror attack by an Iran backed militia, wasn’t it?

Can't say I read up on the details. I saw something about a drone factory getting bombed, so it looked more like a move in the war in Ukraine, than anything to do with Iran in itself.

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