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The refugees that have shown up in my area (rural-ish Canada) definitely include families and single men -- it doesn't seem overly disproportionate towards single women. There's been a lot of incentive for males to get out of the country -- does anyone have actual stats on this?
In Germany, we have quite a few refugees, including in our town. They are all women and chlidren. There are no men that I know. Perhaps some very old ones, but I haven't seen them.
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Men have been banned from leaving Ukraine since February 2022. Someone could pay a bribe (And people who can afford to go to Canada can also afford to pay a bribe), but it is likely that the gender ratio of refugees as a whole is highly disproportionate in favor of women.
But even if it is not 9 million but 4 million. The mobilization potential of Ukraine is still far from being exhausted.
I haven't enquired as to how they managed it, but these guys definitely left post-invasion, and have been accepted as refugees by Canada.
The point being that while in theory there's no difference between theory and practice, in practice there is. While the stats I seek probably aren't available from the Ukrainian government, they might be from countries accepting Ukrainian refugees. This would be much more useful than "it is likely that the gender ratio of refugees as a whole is highly disproportionate in favor of women", which happens to be contradicted by my lying eyes.
But either way the vast majority of this cohort will have no better combat usefulness than the equivalent Russian mobilizee -- of which they surely have just as many to throw in the meatgrinder?
With all due respect, this is one of those cases where your lying eyes can be expected to give a not terribly accurate picture. Most Ukrainian refugees went to Poland, and the vast majority are in Europe. The group that went to Canada is by definition atypical.
Oh sure -- that's why I'd like to see some actual statistics.
But in the absence of statistics, choosing whether to believe my lying eyes vs internet randos and/or motivated parties, well...
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Except that Ukraine has a better chance of getting equipment for those men. Russia has to make everything for itself.
In modern warfare this is not an insignificant difference.
Russia also has to worry about potential state protection; an autocrat's army is never just for external opponents and even the Russian people may have limits on what they'll tolerate if the war is manifestly going poorly and Putin is squeezing more and more people in its name.
Russia has been making everything for itself for 100 years -- can they no longer do it? I don't know, and unless you are involved in the Russian MIC, neither do you.
As may the Ukrainians, one might suggest?
This is not correct, even during the Stalin era.
Soviet industrialisation in the 1920s and 1930s was supported by Western governmental and non-governmental aid.
Soviet technological and defence industrial development in the 1940s was massively helped by Western aid, plus plundering Eastern Europe and especially Germany (the Soviet's own Operation Paperclip etc.).
Soviet post-war development was greatly helped through joint ventures with Western firms, e.g. Tolyatti became the Soviet's Detroit thanks to a joint venture with Fiat. From the 1960s onwards, the Soviets were also greatly helped by importing subsidised American and Canadian grain: essentially, North Americans were being taxed to give the Soviets an easier choice between guns and butter... Well, at least guns or bread/potatoes. This was part of a wider Western Cold War strategy to maintain the Soviet regime as a "stabilising" force, which continued until about September 1991 when the doom of the USSR became obvious even to the White House. Note that this is different from the Soviet's projection of power beyond their borders, which the West did try to stymie.
Afterwards, Western aid was crucial to the survival of the Russian economy in the 1990s, and even then Russia was a basket case until oil prices rose.
Russia has never been an independent industrial power. It suits Western governments to downplay their support for Russia and it obviously suits Russia to downplay their dependence on the West, but neither side has done that much to cover up the history of this relationship.
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First of all: for a significant portion of that period that "itself" involved a host of captive peoples and their resources that Russia simply doesn't have anymore. They're free...and some of them are in NATO which is doubly bad. Then there's the demographic issue of an aging population...
Second: post Cold War Russia was not behind some Iron Curtain. It traded with the West and its industries to help facilitate its own work. Sanctions weaken or cut this link and it's already been suggested that it has negatively affected their military capacity. Is it going to get better? (Arguably this issue goes back to the Felon, where sanctions and other problems mean we haven't really seen them in play in any significant number when you'd think Russia could use them the most)
Third: Russia has large stockpiles of weapons, but it has been using them in Ukraine. And there's the aforementioned 'sanctions" and "you don't control a large empire anymore" issues in terms of rebuilding said stockpile.
Yes, but the Ukrainians don't have to do their own manufacturing and have far more chances for international support and are fighting defensively.
Right, so you don't know what Russia's manufacturing capacity looks like ATM either. Speculation seems pointless.
The one thing that the international support does not provide (much) is soldiers -- if morale breaks on either side, this will be a problem. And it's not a uniquely Russian problem.
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