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Not going to happen. China is building its military at an incredible rate, western militaries havent ramped up their anti China programs such as B21 and are in an awkward position maintaining cold war era tech, dismantling the low end war legacy in the middle east and trying to start new programs. The amount of munitions going to Ukraine is astounding. It is better for China to push a potential war well into the future. This includes their domestic market. They are building new nuclear power, trying to build their own supply chains etc. A war in 2023 would be horribly premature.
This isn't that dramatic and probably more likely.
The threshold for nukes is very high and i is unlikely that they would be used outside an all out war between NATO and China/Russia.
More likely MIGs supplied by someone else. Building an Airforce of Gripens/F16s is a big job.
The death rate for people at his age is roughly 5%. That doesnt count people becoming vegetables after a stroke. The chances of him not making it through the year are more like 10%.
We overestimate what will happen in the next 3 years and underestimate what will happen in 10-30 years. A year in a massive rocket program is nothing, these projects easily stretch well over a decade. Spacex is fast but falcon 1/9 were not speedy programs. If they are in commercial service 2027 it would be fast. Their rocket is incredibly ambitious and test-cycles will be long as a new rocket is expensive and slow to replace. I give them a 40% chance of reaching orbit next year and I would be mightily impressed by their speed if they succeed in 2024.
Do they even want to land though? Like, ever? They could as well just blockade the entire island until Taiwan gives in. Think what happens when there is no food imports, no fuel, etc. It would only need to happen for a few weeks for there to be significant chaos.
Blockades are an act of war, so they would earn some of the sanctions that are currently reserved for Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
More importantly, the US has a history of being dedicated to freedom of navigation in the Taiwan strait. So if CCP really wants to enforce that blockade they are going to have to start by attacking ships of the US Navy. Unlikely.
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Agree. People seem to systematically overestimate the likelihood of escalation of geopolitical events.
To be clear, in my original prediction, this was listed at <5% (ie not going to happen this year)
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