rokmonster
Lives under a rok.
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User ID: 1473
rokmonster
Lives under a rok.
18d ago
Well, you still haven't actually read the EO.
DOGE is established as a renaming of the US digital service to US DOGE service, with a temporary suborganization called US DOGE Service Temporary Organization with teams of Special Government Employees.
And USDS's new mandate is a Software Modernization Initiative, not technically a budget directive, so the mission of USDS has not changed.
Finally, the president does have authority to share classified info with anyone at any time. The President and only the President is the ultimate classificarion authority (because classification is justified under constitutional provisions for foreign policy, I guess).
Whether this EO gives Elon the right to dismantle USAID is probably subject to controversy, but on the points you are pushing the Trump Admin has already thought of and dismissed your objections.
rokmonster
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18d ago
Do you find you get better results that way? I always add "Please think step by step." and "Please be succinct."
rokmonster
Lives under a rok.
18d ago
Dictators have limited tenures. If you covertly support them via foreign aid (as opposed to direct bribery), then you have plausible deniability which enables you to continue working with whoever deposes them.
rokmonster
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19d ago
I think it is likely that foreign aid is spent to buy influence with foreign countries. Sure, it doesn't sound like a good use of American money to treat HIV in Niger, but if it helps the government of Niger drive a tougher bargain when negotiating with China, or even better gets them to sell the US crude oil, then it might be a smart investment, totally irrespective of its moral utility.
Actually, there is probably a pretty good correlation between womens' education and low birthrate. Low birthrate minimizes future humanitarian needs, so stuff that seems quite "progressive" might be a very good investment long term. The devil is of course in the details.
rokmonster
Lives under a rok.
19d ago
If you are going to get the AI to rephrase something, could you ask the AI to keep it short?
The fundamental problem with AI is that it produces text very cheaply, and far faster than I can read. Thjs is the general problem of the internet, but if you write it yourself, then I know you care enough about a topic to write about it, which signals that you think it is worth your time, so I will take a look.
If you farm it off to AI, then it isn't worth your time to write, so why would it be worth mine to read?
But thank you for leading with honesty. I do respect that you respected us.
rokmonster
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24d ago
Oh right. My bad. Let's do an estimate instead. The violent crime rate in the US is 380 per 100,000 (Wikipedia, 2022), with the most violent "state" being DC at 812 per 100,000. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_violent_crime_rate
Assuming deportations have not been enforced for four years and no multiple-offenders, it would take a population of 65 million illegal aliens to generate 1 million violent criminals at the US average, the base population of illegal aliens would be 31 million illegal aliens at DC's violent crime rate.
The standard estimate of illegal alien number in the US was 11 million in 2022. However, 'alien encounters' were three times higher between 2021 and 2024 than between 2021 and 2017. https://homeland.house.gov/2024/10/24/startling-stats-factsheet-fiscal-year-2024-ends-with-nearly-3-million-inadmissible-encounters-10-8-million-total-encounters-since-fy2021/
But as we learned during the VP debates, asylum seekers were not considered illegal under the Biden admin. In 2022 there were 1M applications for asylum, in 2023 there were 1.1M, and in 2024 there were 1.5M asylum applications. So that might be another 4M people.
So if I had to guess, there are 15 to 20M illegal aliens in the US at the end of 2024, which implies much less than 660k violent felon illegal aliens.
rokmonster
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25d ago
estimated 1 million illegal aliens who are violent felons
That number can't be right. CBP says about 20,000 per year:
https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement-statistics/criminal-noncitizen-statistics
Which would be about 2 months of Trump deportations at current rates.
rokmonster
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1mo ago
An app store or internet hosting service that continues to enable distribution, maintenance, or updates for a banned application could be subject to civil penalties of up to $5,000 multiplied by the number of U.S. users who accessed, maintained, or updated the application. A foreign adversary controlled application that fails to provide user data as required could be subject to civil penalties of up to $500 multiplied by the number of affected users.
rokmonster
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1mo ago
The "TikTok" ban covers any social networking app controlled by a foreign adversary with more than one million American users, and at the discretion of the President. So if Red Little Book (the actual literally translation of Hongxiaoshu) picks up a million American users at the discretion of the President they can also be forced to sell or be forced off the app stores.
Also AFAIK this is only being kicked off the app stores and being forced to not do transact with American businesses. Existing installations will keep running, albeit with no ad revenue from American businesses.
rokmonster
Lives under a rok.
1mo ago
That doesn't look egregious. Build a fire-resistant concrete home, controlled burn the forest behind the house yearly, keep a few cisterns of rainwater in the attic to wet the ground near the home before the next fire, a generator to pump water from the pool when the power goes out, and keep a go bag ready for evac. These are relatively expensive engineering problems, but not intractable if you have the money.
rokmonster
Lives under a rok.
1mo ago
There have also been allegations that homeless people were lighting fires, I haven't seen any proof of this.
Unlikely. There were 80 mph (120 kph) winds before the fires started, but it was dry for many weeks beforehand without incident, which suggests to me that winds blew down power lines (or equivalently, branches next to power lines), and sparks from shorting cables are enough to get dry brush started.
Humans naturally have a tendency to search for intention in chance events, but here rumors of bad actors deflect blame from the likely cause: mismanagement on the part of PG&E and the local forest/parks service, so I expect those rumors to be encouraged in the media.
I also see people reaching for the Global Warming explanation, but to me this is a series of proximate systemic failures in administration and in holding individuals/companies accountable. Which just about captures half my complaints about the state of American governance: too much consensus-building, not enough action or taking accountability. Definitely a loss of Mandate of Heaven moment.
rokmonster
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1mo ago
Thanks. The only person I know with an EB1 works at Apple, so I assumed its usage was roughly equivalent to H1B.
rokmonster
Lives under a rok.
1mo ago
If Elon only wants 15,000 of the best of the best, then the current EB1 and O1 visa processes should be sufficient. EB1 is a green card "for highly skilled foreign workers who have extraordinary ability, are outstanding professors or researchers, or are multinational executives or managers" with a quota of 40k per year, and O1 is a three-year, extensible-until-end-of-contract nonimmigrant visa for "people with extraordinary skills" which admits about 20k per year (22,430 and 23,680 people admitted in 2014 and 2015).
So it sounds like Elon is lying, and wants more than 15,000 individuals. I presume his incentives would be in the direction of having more employer-dependent skilled labor visas like the H1B, but having a higher quota and making them more predictable (remove the lottery, approve faster). This puts him at odds with MAGA.
rokmonster
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2mo ago
Two crazy statistics to think about:
- 51% of Koreans born in 1985 (39 year olds) have never been married.
- 3% of South Koreans are born out of wedlock.
So there is social pressure to not have kids out of wedlock, and more than half the population is deferring marriage until after the fertility cliff. I blame the marriage deficit on high financial expectations on young couples and a culture which teaches that marriage at 35 or later is okay. The birthrate crisis is downstream of the marriage crisis.
rokmonster
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2mo ago
Korean pay scales reward seniority, not technical skills. All engineer starting pay is 1/3 to 1/5 the equivalent US starting salary, except Samsung which is 1/2.
But the US is an outlier in programmer salaries and in minimum cost of living. So someone can live comfortably on 40k USD in Seoul. Compare the US where cheap 100 to 200 sqft rentals don't exist anywhere.
Someday I need to post my student budget. I was able to save up 10k USD over three years while making less than 10k USD annually, paying tuition and living in central Seoul.
rokmonster
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2mo ago
Back surgery works for severe disk herniations, but the mechanism is that it removes pressure on the nerves. The nerves die under pressure resulting in partial paralysis if surgery is not done within 48 (ideally 24) hours. Nerves don't regenerate/grow after age 30 or so.
I'm reading a lot of stories on reddit of people whose back surgeries were delayed 2 to 6 months over insurance stating that a surgery would not be paid for without a diagnostic MRI (which is fair), and a diagnostic MRI would not be paid for without weeks of physical therapy first (which is unconscionable).
rokmonster
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2mo ago
There's a lot of detail that hasn't percolated into the Western press yet, but I've been watching the videos, and they are wild. Here's a rough timeline:
- 10:23 President announces martial law. Some percentage of civilians immediately head to the National Assembly, many of them coming out of bars.
- 10:?? Police cordon off the National Assembly, barricade the compound's gates.
- 11:00 Martial law command (military) announces that political activities are banned, public assemblies are banned, broadcasts are to be subject to censorship, people may be arrested without cause.
- Also, doctors are ordered to return to work within 48 hours (they walked off last year). I'm happy this is now within the Overton Window.
- Some number of civilians and most Assemblymen jump the National Assembly fence.
- 11:02 The opposition leader livestreams himself making the jump.
- 12:?? Special forces land helecopters on the football pitch of the National Assemby.
- Opposition newscasters and personalities flee their homes and offices. Video of special forces assembling on the street in front of the homes of opposition newscasters and personalities.
- 12:15? Special forces (armed only with simunition) in shoving matches with drunk civilians over the entrance to the National Assembly. Some actual servicemen appear apologetic, but orders are orders.
- 12:30? Special forces lose the shoving match with civilians, break a window to get in.
- 12:40? Special forces repelled by Assemblypeople with fire extinguishers and makeshift barricades. Military didn't look very motivated.
- 12:45? National Assembly convenes.
- 12:45 A friend gets a text from their employer not to come into work tomorrow.
- 01:01 190 votes (unanimous) for a formal request to disband martial law. 18 members of the President's party crossed the aisle.
- 01:10 Military starts to withdraw. Protestors start chanting "arrest Yoon".
Korea was so close to losing its democracy. If the fence were a few meters taller, if the soldiers had arrived 30 minutes earlier, if they had been given live ammo, or if they had followed orders with intent instead of half-assing the arrests they were told to perform, the Assembly would not have been able to reach quorum.
Going forward, President Yoon is fucked. 200 votes are required for impeachment, and it looks like the requisite 8 representatives from the President's party are already pledged. The Constitutional Court needs to try the case, and with three empty seats they do not have enough members to do so, but no doubt the National Assembly will now nominate the one more justice to have a 2/3 majority for the impeachment trial.
There's a lot of wondering how Yoon got elected, but his opponent in the last election (the Opposition Leader who livestreamed jumping the fence) had ties to organized crime and several of his opponents died under mysterious circumstances. The opposition leader has since been found guilty of a number of crimes, but enjoys immunity as a member of parliament.
Finally, it is interesting to contrast this attempted coup to Jan 6th. It tells us what Jan 6th would have looked like if Trump had been actually malicious and motivated to perform a coup: military would have been storming Congress, not directionless protestors. The President would have been in a bunker, not holding a rally. Congress would have been barricading the hallways to maintain their quorum, not retreating to saferooms and giving up the chamber. The military would have been arresting opposition leaders and shutting down broadcasts, rather than totally absent from the Capitol area.
rokmonster
Lives under a rok.
2mo ago
This is embarassing.
Phone 1: 365, Phone 2: 265, Personal Computer: 84, Work computer Browser 1: 227, Browser 2: 267
In practice, I'm only aiming to close 10% of tabs on the systems I use on days that I use them.
Also, fell into Factorio on the weekend and got nothing done.
rokmonster
Lives under a rok.
2mo ago
I meant tasks due tomorrow. Thanks for holding my feet to the fire, though.
rokmonster
Lives under a rok.
2mo ago
Day 2's tasks:
- [ ] Language and science reviews
- [ ] Close 10% of tabs and get inbox to 50
- [ ] 100 pushups, 100 squats
- [ ] 1 hr walking
- [ ] 45 min rowing
- [ ] Drink 2l water
- [ ] File reimbursement requests
- [ ] Data analysis
- [ ] Holiday shopping
I've been pretty lazy this month. Starting now I precommit to daily accountability updates in this thread. Please hold my feet to the fire.
Tomorrow's tasks:
- [x] Language and science reviews
- [-] Close 10% of tabs and get inbox to 50: Closed 10% of tabs, but inbox is at 87
- [ ] 100 pushups, 100 squats: pushups done, squats Fail.
- [ ] 1 hr walking:Fail
- [x] Drink 2l water
- [ ] File reimbursement requests:Fail
- [ ] Set up beeminder?: Bad idea in retrospect
- [x] Watch a lecture
- [x] Outline a lecture
rokmonster
Lives under a rok.
2mo ago
Wait. The NHS thinks semaglutide is cost-effecrive? In what formulation? Could you share the math/link with us?
rokmonster
Lives under a rok.
3mo ago
They might, but that ignores the collective benefits of vaccines. Imagine that our smallpox vaccine from above kills one in ten. Surely, compared to four in ten deaths from smallpox, we collectively are vastly better off with one in ten deaths and immunity to smallpox, or zero deaths if we can beat smallpox and phase out the vaccine. But now the vaccine company has liability for post vaccine deaths, and so a single dose of the vaccine is going to cost... $1M just to cover the liability. No patient/government is going to pay $1M to save a 4/10 of a life when there are cheaper QALYs to save elsewhere, so we will never beat smallpox and we will see 40% fatality rates in perpetuity.
The fair mathematical solution might be to limit the vaccine manufacturer's liability to the collective damages or to damages external to the vaccine (i.e. negligence). So if you have a vaccine which saves lives (or QALYs) on net, you have no liability, but you'd better be sure your vaccine saves lives.
rokmonster
Lives under a rok.
3mo ago
No it doesn't, because people don't pay anywhere near the QALY value of vaccines to the vaccine company.
Let's pretend we have a vaccine for smallpox (40-50% fatality rate in babies). People/governments pay maybe $100 per dose (https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines-for-children/php/awardees/current-cdc-vaccine-price-list.html). The value of a wrongful death is $10M, so you would break even on a $100 vaccine for smallpox at one wrongful death in 100,000, while the vaccine would save 40,000 to 50,000 lives per 100,000.
I actually have to compliment @Quantumfreakonomics here, because until 15 minutes ago I thought liability was reasonable.
So the Trump administration has made an effort to limit "indirect" research costs, those research funds which institutions charge on top of a research grant to pay for expenses which cannot be attributed to an individual research project, for items like building maintenance, grant writing staff, and administrative staff. The new policy, effective February 10, 2025, caps the indirect cost rate at 15% for all NIH grants, both new and existing. People in my social circle are watching the court battle over this with baited breath. One of their institutions charges 55%, and another one charges 70% (which appears to be the legal maximum). From this perspective, 15% seems very very low, but it appears the average is around 27%.
I recently talked to some of my Korean researcher friends, and in Korea indirect costs are capped at 17% (and come out of the allocated grant money, so they are considered during grant proposal submission). Of that 17%, the institution even sets a few percent aside to give "miscellaneous funds" to Professors. My friend (a former Resident) said that these miscellaneous funds (which are completely unregulated) were critical to keeping medical professors on the job after an anti-corruption law banned them from taking "gifts" from patients: they were frequently spent on personal items, team dinners, and alcohol. In my experience they were used to purchase high-end computers for data analysis. But the point is that 17% leaves the institution with a surplus.
I'm left wondering if indirect costs in the US (now two to four times higher than those of Korea) are a result of perverse incentives. The NIH negotiates these after grants have been granted. If the US had counted these expenses against the grant value prior to grants being granted (as Korea does), would professors have been incentivized to lobby their institutions against administrative bloat?
I tried to find how these costs have changed over time, and it looks like they have risen by a few percent in the past decade, but every grantmaking agency has different numbers and it is a mess, with more variance between agencies than change over time.
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