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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   1753 thread views

Wellness Wednesday for December 21, 2022

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Slime Mold Time Mold has released the results of their Potassium Supplementation study, and I'm pretty disappointed in them. They are boasting an average of 1lb of weight loss over a month, with about a quarter not losing weight and another quarter gaining weight. A few very fat people lost multiple lbs (person with BMI over 60 lost over 10 lbs.) Some of the people writing to them stated that they were intentionally cutting calories. For example, one testimonial:

(23881640) I started a quick calorie-restricted diet before the holidays (got to fit into those festive pants!), and I’m combining counting macros, counting calories, AND adding 1 tsp of potassium chloride a day to my water, and the weight is coming off. It’s making the calorie restriction much more bearable.

That sounds like the potassium was a magic feather, not to mention the effect of joining a trial and focusing on weight for a month straight.

Despite my assessment that this study is inconclusive at best, the SMTM team is crowing about statistically significant P values and how this shows some sort of effect. They say it couldn't possibly be cutting calories, because the people eating the most calories lost the most weight. Never mind that they aren't tracking calorie deficit, and as mentioned above the biggest losers were at very high BMIs, so we'd expect them to eat the most calories and still be at the biggest calorie deficits.

nd I'm pretty disappointed in them. They are boasting an average of 1lb of weight loss over a month, with about a quarter not losing weight and another quarter gaining weight. A few very fat people lost multiple lbs (person with BMI over 60 lost over 10 lbs.) Some of the people writing to them stated that they were intentionally cutting calories. For example, one testimonial:

Welcome to the world of weight loss studies. Disappointing describes almost all ,if not all, of them.

I guess it wasn't clear, I'm not disappointed in the results. I like that they published something that shows that it's not the potassium in potatoes causing the effect. I'm disappointed with SMTM because they don't seem to understand what their data is telling them.

that too is a common problem in weight loss studies and literature

Seriously just ozempic or moujarno, obesity is basically solved.

I think it's bs, sorry to say. Yeah, potatoes with just water and salt is low calorie and causes weight loss, but so is any vegetable. It's also unpleasant to eat, imho. Hence, fries or mashed potatoes, butter, or oil. But then you negate the health benefits.

Most people on the potato trial used oil while cooking their potatoes and still saw results. Potatoes are weirdly satiating.

Darn. This updates me majorly towards "its not the potassium". The effect size is so small as not to matter and I agree that the very fact that people are in a study will alter their behavior.

On the plus side, this majorly strengthens the case for the Potato Diet. Let's say we consider the potassium to be a placebo, and also that the potato and potassium studies were run under similar conditions. Since the potato diet should much greater weight loss, we can see that there is something real there beyond just being part of a study.

The person who critiqued SMTM's bad chemical hunger series did a quick search and found some negative RCTs on potassium. smtm bad etc

Yeah, fuck the critics. I'll take whatever SMTM is doing over the experts who came up with the food pyramid with 6-11 servings of bread at the bottom. I can understand how "real" scientists feel threatened when SMTM is doing interesting work and they are, by and large, not.

this is a bad reason to support something. it's possible for both parties to be wrong.

Huh? It's possible for SMTM to do bad science while most nutritionists also do bad science. Same way Ray Peat does it.

I can understand how "real" scientists feel threatened

"Natália Coelho Mendonça" isn't a nutrition scientist or anything afaict, they're just a smart person?

agree. bad science is not just limited to 'health authorities'.

If I had the reach and time, the next trial would be to have one group of people eat 1lb of potatoes a day (and otherwise eat whatever they feel like), a second group eat 2 lb of potatoes, the last group do the full potato from the first trial, and see if there is any effect from just increasing potatoes.

1lb of potatoes would be about 400 calories, or basically substituting a starchy breakfast for most people. If it caused weight loss, it would be notable and attributable to some quality in the potato. If weight loss only occurred when people do full potato, then it lends credence to the idea that it's the mundanity of eating the same thing that lost the weight.

But the big take away for me is that SMTM just can't be trusted to evaluate their data. Maybe I'm missing something, but they seem to think their results support potassium as a weight loss catalyst.

When it comes to nutrition, it's all so tiresome. I've never seen a subject where everyone thinks they are an expert. Perhaps it's because the experts are so consistently wrong.

So I'm going to defend SMTM. Give credit to the man in the arena and all that.

SMTM may not be right either, but they are exploring interesting ideas like the potato diet. Hell, maybe potassium does work, albeit with a low effect size. Next step would be to try it over a long-term period. People aren't going to lose 20 pounds and keep it off for 2 years because of study participation.

When it comes to nutrition, it's all so tiresome. I've never seen a subject where everyone thinks they are an expert. Perhaps it's because the experts are so consistently wrong.

It is because controlling for the multitude of variables and confounders is close to impossible ,and no diets seem to work that well.

The problem is that you and I both assessed that the effects SMTM saw from the Potassium study were more likely than not a placebo, but the SMTM people are treating it like a win. Their judgement on this study does not align with mine, and it calls into question their assessment of other papers they reviewed and will review going forward.

I still appreciate that they are investigating the contamination theory of obesity and are gathering data for everyone to look at. But now I trust their interpretation of the data less.

If you want unorthodox views that I think are further developed than SMTM, check out https://fireinabottle.net/ or watch this video series. But even there I have a caveat - Brad naturally wants to make money from what he's researching and therefore has an interest in selling supplements to people. When possible, he does link to other places to get the supplements, but some of his theories seem to involve supplements that only he sells in the US, which is a little suspicious.

The point being, I don't put all my cognitive eggs in one basket, but that doesn't mean I don't appreciate these unorthodox people looking into the rise in obesity. I appreciate them for what they are and don't trust anyone wholeheartedly.

Revisiting my posts from last night, I agree with your take. I guess I just am overly sensitive to criticism of SMTM because I am aware they are dealing with an environment where criticism tends to be extreme and often unproductive. Much of it in the variety of "just eat less, herp derp". But you are right.

I think there is something else going on here. There do seem to be an array of exclusion diets that work well including the potato diet and croissant diet.

Here's another one that has mysterious results:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BD4oExxQguTgpESdm/the-unfinished-mystery-of-the-shangri-la-diet

The Shangri-La Diet is unfortunately named - I would have called it "the set-point diet". And even worse, the actual procedure sounds like the wackiest fad diet imaginable:

Just drink two tablespoons of extra-light olive oil early in the morning... don't eat anything else for at least an hour afterward... and in a few days it will no longer take willpower to eat less; you'll feel so full all the time, you'll have to remind yourself to eat.

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