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Culture War Roundup for the week of April 21, 2025

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There's been tariffs, since the Democrats don't want to interrupt their opponent when he's shooting himself in the face. Also deportations, though the Supreme Court has put the kibosh on those for now. But mostly nothing that won't just be #resist'ed until he's out of office.

In 3 months the Trump admin has

  • Started a trade war with china
  • Made a deal with El Salvador to ship some of our illegal immigrants there
  • Killed off most of our foreign aid
  • Significantly altered US international relations
  • Ended disparate impact policies (I bet this one sticks)

What were your actual expectations for the first 3 months of Trump II?

Are you willing to put a bet with cash to a charity of your choice on disparate impact? Because that's not one of the ones I'm certain is going to get TRO'd and reversed the second a Dem President is in office, but I'd probably put north of 70% on the former and north of 90% on the latter.

I would want to have some concreteness on exactly what we're betting on here (e.g. obviously the EO didn't make Griggs completely irrelevant forever, obviously the strong form of affirmative action in college admissions was already on its way out).

But yeah if we can operationalize this and still disagree on expected outcomes vs just disagreeing on what it concretely means for disparate impact policies to be neutered I am up for a charity bet.

Dollar amount of disparate impact settlements in the first 4 years of next dem admin, inflation adjusted to 2018 dollars? Though that is a super noisy signal.