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PaperclipPerfector  9d ago (text post)   2421 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for April 6, 2025

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Can someone recommend an explained numerical estimate of the economic effects of the recent tariffs, assuming they continue unchanged? Looking for something from a broadly neoclassical perspective, largely based on general theory (not "look at my linear regression mum"), that isnt aiming for maximum Trump-condemnation.

https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-week-april-7-2025

Is there an explanation of how they got those numbers as well? The excel offered is static and AFAICT has no additional info above the site. A few questions: Am I reading it correctly that they expect no compounding effect, just one multiplier? How is the GDP effect only -0.6%, if the price level is +2.3%? And Im assuming the GDP effect counts the fiscal revenue already, since otherwise its net-positive.

They use the GTAP model.

They have some notes in the appendix of an earlier version

https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fiscal-economic-and-distributional-effects-illustrative-reciprocal-us-tariffs

Thank you.

Afraid I don’t have one. Honestly, I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a policy evaluated by normal economics. I’m willing to believe it happens, but it sure doesn’t make it to the public eye.

YouTube has started recommending me “tariff equation” apologetics, but I’m not desperate enough to sift through them for quality.

I dont generally look for these things either, because with more "normal" policies you have a good enough idea anyway that the details dont matter, and its not like these forecasts are that precise to begin with - unfortunately that means I dont know how to find one now that I would want it. Im pretty sure even good tariff equation apologetics is not what Im looking for.

I have kept my youtube free of politics-first content. Most political discussion is very unpleasant for me in audio, which likely contributed to achieving this, but I would very much recommend.

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