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PaperclipPerfector  7d ago (text post)   668 thread views

Transnational Thursday for April 3, 2025

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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The big item this week seems like the Trump tariffs. Smoot-Hawley tariffs contributed to the start of ww2 and the deaths of tens of millions of people, says a friend. An argument in favor is that the numbers aren't meant to be taken literally not seriously, and are just there to force a negotiation. The initial formula seems pretty straightforwardly wrong (it disincentivizes e.g., Vietnam sweatshops from producing clothes for cheap). I liked this piece from Varoufakis defending what he views as Trump's plan. I'd particularly welcome steelmen and defenses of the tariffs.

Besides that, a rough list of items I've caught, particularly focused on things that could pose large risks (if you want a cleaner version of this you can check here in a couple of days):

Cholera epidemic claims over 300 lives, spread to 16 out of the country's 21 provinces.

Chinese scientific research/spy ship spotted off coast of South Australia

China Eastern Theater Command Releases Military Operation Themed Poster "Closing In"

Mali, Burkina, Niger foreign ministers due in Moscow for talks

At least 322 children killed and 609 injured in Gaza following breakdown of ceasefire: UNICEF

Hamas agrees to release five hostages in renewed ceasefire, Israel counters

Iran threatens to develop nuke weapons should U.S. attack

An adviser to Iran's supreme leader warned on Monday that if the United States or Israel were to attack Iran under the pretext of nuclear concerns, the country would be compelled to pursue the development of nuclear weapons, according to the official news agency IRNA.

Israel issues wide-ranging evacuation order for southern Gaza

UN Agency Closes Its Remaining Gaza Bakeries Amid Israel's Ongoing Aid Blockade

ARMED Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Chief of Staff General Romeo Brawner has directed the Northern Luzon Command (Nolcom) to prepare for the possible invasion of Taiwan.

China 'closes in' on Taiwan with large-scale military drills

China Launches Large-Scale Military Drills Around Taiwan

Chinese forces encircle Taiwan on three sides during drills - World

Military chief says Philippines 'inevitably' involved if Taiwan invaded

Google deepmind AI strategy

China large-scale drills

Some incredibly dumb tariff maths

Another Chinese military poster

https://imgmil.gmw.cn/attachement/png/site2/20250402/f44d305ea6dd2956e78044.png

Military drills response to separatism, mainland official says

All bakeries supported by World Food Program in Gaza closed due to lack of flour, fuel

Israel hails Hungary's decision to exit International Criminal Court

Israel's Netanyahu says army to establish new security corridor in Gaza

The Eastern Theater Command has organized forces from the army, navy, air force, and other branches to conduct joint exercises around Taiwan Island.

US opposes China's military exercises around Taiwan, warns against 'destabilizing behavior'. Back in the day they would have done a freedom of navigation exercise

Sudan's RSF confirms retreat from Khartoum, eyes 'stronger' return

A NYT investigations reveals that at times, the US was running the back office of the war for Ukraine. It also tells a story of envious Ukranian generals leading to incompetent counteroffensives. (summary here)

a New York Times investigation |reveals| that America was woven into the war far more intimately and broadly than previously understood. At critical moments, the partnership was the backbone of Ukrainian military operations that, by U.S. counts, have killed or wounded more than 700,000 Russian soldiers. (Ukraine has put its casualty toll at 435,000.) Side by side in Wiesbaden’s mission command center, American and Ukrainian officers planned Kyiv’s counteroffensives. A vast American intelligence-collection effort both guided big-picture battle strategy and funneled precise targeting information down to Ukrainian soldiers in the field.

One European intelligence chief recalled being taken aback to learn how deeply enmeshed his N.A.T.O. counterparts had become in Ukrainian operations. “They are part of the kill chain now,” he said.

Putin plans to conscript 160,000 more Russians for war with Ukraine

British Columbia man, Mohammad Jawaid Aziz, accused in conspiracy to obtain US technology for Pakistan's nuclear weapon's program

Construction of private bunkers in Spain rises 200% as fears of war in Europe grow

Germany stationing troops in Lithuania, and considering conscription

Two-year-old girl from Andhra Pradesh, India, has died after contracting H5N1 bird flu

Mpox activity in Africa on pace to pass 2024 total. Inconsistent with reporting from the WHO last week about cases waning

I generally don't like to report on announcements, but: OpenAI plans to release open-weight language model in coming months

Two-year-old girl from Andhra Pradesh, India, has died after contracting H5N1 bird flu

This is like the fifth death from bird flu I’ve heard about. Does this mean it’s crossed the inter species barrier? Is there anything preventing human-to-human transmission? Or are these some kind of weird edge cases?

I'd consider "two-year-old child in India" to be an edge case. I wonder if the other human deaths from H5N1 were similarly debuffed immunity-wise.

Does this mean it’s crossed the inter species barrier?

I'd consider "two-year-old child in India" to be an edge case.

Woah careful with these levels of HBD! We have indian posters here, you know.

Hey, Self-Made Human would probably talk about the modal Indian child being raised in less-than-acceptably-hygenic conditions.

Oh I know, your second sentence made clear what you meant. I just had to chuckle since the first sentence wouldn't have been out of place in a very different kind of post.

I don't know, but these are good questions.

The conscription thing isn't really true. Russia conscripts twice a year starting in april and october every year and has done so dating back to the soviet era. Western media seems to always run the story like clockwork around this time of year despite it not being anything new. They might end up on the border and could see combat there, but the people fighting in the territory of Ukraine are voluntary or mobilized reservists, with the caveat that the voluntary come from very poor regions and receive significant sign on bonuses.

Mmmh, thanks.

the voluntary come from very poor regions and receive significant sign on bonuses.

Is this still true? My sense is also that they were also mislead/pressured.

IIRC Russian conscripts are brutally hazed but go up the social ladder and receive a pay raise if they choose a voluntary enlistment.

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