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Culture War Roundup for the week of March 31, 2025

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What do you think the missing "common knowledge" in question is?

The short, inadequate answer would be something like "What rules are and how they work" and "what values are and how they work". The Founding Fathers had no context for Postmodernism, for the fully-developed concept of a "Living Constitution", or for the reality that human values could be incoherent at scale. They mistook local values-homogeneity for universal features of human nature, and they assumed that legible rules could meaningfully constrain human Will. They lacked a deep understanding of "manipulation of procedural outcomes" and rules-fragility.

That's my understanding, anyhow.

I remembered that post fondly, but had forgotten the key-words or who it was from! Thank ye.

Separately / concurrently- given that the American Founding Fathers didn't predict the rise of political parties, and had to amend the constitution pretty early for the vice president kerfuffle, I think the 'did not necessarily understand the procedural implication of their own rules' is a fair critique.

In some respects they did- slowing the progress of government change in some respects- but that itself just locked in various self-catalyzing changes, like the New Deal coalition leading to the rise of the imperial presidency and administrative state that would compete with the chief executive.

Separately / concurrently- given that the American Founding Fathers didn't predict the rise of political parties, and had to amend the constitution pretty early for the vice president kerfuffle, I think the 'did not necessarily understand the procedural implication of their own rules' is a fair critique.

If you think that Presidential democracy was a mistake (I do, and the Framers' writings make it clear that they would see it as a mistake in hindsight if they saw what a modern partisan Presidential election looks like) then there is an interesting question of how it happened.

Theory 1 as I see it is that the Presidency was designed knowing that Washington would be elected unopposed as the first President, and would almost certainly remain President as long as he wanted. So even if the Framers had anticipated the rise of political parties, they assumed that national treasures like Washington would generally be available, and that the machinery of the Electoral College would help them beat partisan candidates.

Theory 2 is that the main model for the relationship between the President and Congress available to the Framers was the relationship between King and Parliament in Great Britain, and in the late 18th century that relationship was in an unstable equilibrium - that either the Crown would re-consolidate power and turn Parliament into a rubber-stamp (as Louis XIV did with the French Parlements, and as has happened in most Presidential democracies established on the US model) or Parliament would consolidate power and force the King to appoint a Prime Minister acceptable to the Parliamentary majority (as actually happened).

In both theories the Constitution was no longer working as advertised by 1796 (Adams-Jefferson was a partisan election). Under theory 2 the reason why the US was able to stay in unstable equilibrium as long as it did was the lack of party discipline.

If you think that Presidential democracy was a mistake

Do you think 5 is less than?

That's not a coherent question, right? You have to have two numbers to be able to talk about whether one is less than the other. 5 is less than 6. 5 is not less than 4.

But the same applies to any question of the form "Was X a mistake?" Was Presidential democracy a mistake compared to remaining part of the British empire? Probably not - the colonists did have some legitimate grievances. Was Presidential democracy a mistake compared to a Parliamentary democracy with a Prime Minister? Maybe, but not obviously so; we can see the cracks in parliamentary democracies too, today.

Was Presidential democracy with first-past-the-post voting a mistake compared to an approval-voting system? Here I'd opine the answer is clearly "yes", but when the Constitution was ratified Condorcet had just barely started publishing on voting theory, and Arrow and Duverger were a century away from being born, so I can hardly fault the Framers for lacking the benefit of hindsight here.

They did try to leave us with a mechanism for changing the Constitution to fix their later-identified mistakes, which has been very fruitful in the case of some other mistakes, and which you'd think would be sufficient in general... but the trouble with changing a mistake in the mechanisms by which people and parties gain power is that, almost by definition, the people and parties in power have strong incentives to want that change to not be made. If you're a partisan demagogue whose route to election has been "take advantage of your polarized base, plus a few moderates who can be convinced that the opposing partisan demagogue is more awful", why would you want to make it easier for challengers within your ideology to run against you and simultaneously make it likely that you'll face less-awful opponents from other ideologies?

The founders mostly died expecting their experiment to fail in a big and obvious way, though, and while they wouldn’t recognize the modern US, this hasn’t happened.

I think that some cultural aspects of the modern US would shock and appall them but the big picture would look very familiar to them from a historical level. I imagine they would immediately start making familiar analogies to the Roman Republic and its transition to empire.

Not that I necessarily think that those analogies are 100% correct, but I suspect it would pattern-match for them quickly. I'm not sure they would think it was good but it probably would feel familiar.

The founders mostly died expecting their experiment to fail in a big and obvious way

The Civil War seems like a pretty significant point of failure. Otherwise, there's a lot of ruin in a nation, and especially one as fortuitously positioned as the United States. Give it time.

Although if Jefferson had survived to see the Civil War, he would totally be running around saying "I TOLD YOU SO!"