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Notes -
In 2000, as part of opening up Saudi Arabia to new capital markets, the government signed conventions on human rights. Presumably, these conventions had stipulations about women's rights:
in 2001, Saudi Arabia ratified the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW), although they did so with reservations that it would only do so when not in violation of Islamic law.
In 2002, Saudi women talk about how discrimination against women still exists, but "progress" is being made:
In 2005, the Saudi King started creating cities "free from the influence of Wahabi clerics":
In 2005, Saudi Arabia banned forced marriages.
In 2009, first women minister became member of the cabinet.
In 2012, government ministries are actively helping women to seek work:
In 2012, domestic abuse is now criminalized. Male guardian consent is no longer required for women to seek work.
Women voted for the first time in 2015.
2017 women allowed to drive.
2018, the King restricted the powers of the religious police, women no longer forced to wear the hijab in public.
2019, guardianship system is mostly rolled back. Women are allowed to travel abroad without male relative permission. "Women will now receive standard employment discrimination protections. They now also have the right to register the births of their children, live apart from their husbands, and obtain family records. And along with her husband, a woman can also now register as a co-head of household."
2019 -- marriages under age 18 banned.
2021 -- women can marry and divorce without permission. Single women now can live independently without a male guardian.
Saudi Arabia is now more feminist/liberal than 1950s United States -- and accordingly, its birth-rates are significantly lower than 1950s United States.
We can still debate a few things: 1) to what extent did "women's lib" happen as a result of government support and policy, and to what extent it was the result of sattelite TV and the prestige of American culture? 2) Could the government have stopped "women's lib" if it wanted to, or is it an inevitable result of being wealthy and having modern technology? However, whatever the role of government policy, it does seem clear to me that over the last 40 years there was a gradual process whereby patriarchy eroded and women did become more liberated/empowered.
(end of posts)
As a KAUST resident, I can say that this place is very interesting for Saudi Arabia. Most people here are foreign (including yours truly), this place socially can be compared to a southern european/ coastal Turkish city. The veiling of women does happen but it is rare, what is semi common however is the hijab but there are local Saudi women without hijab. The social climate is fairly good and the community seems to have decent levels of social trust. In Jeddah you will see more traditional behaviour combined some western elements, KAUST is the opposite.
It is also interesting to see how KAUST is a harmonious multicultural environment, probably caused by the good standard of living for all residents in combination with the fact that this place is an amalgam of the best each country has to offer in terms of people.
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Nice effort-post! And thanks for doing the hard work of examining qualitative evidence.
Your main point is: (A) there's been a lot of female empowerment in Saudi Arabia over the past half-a-century, and (B) that's what explains the coincidental drop in fertility rates.
I agree that evidence indicates a substantial rise of female empowerment. To back up your qualitative evidence: Gender Inequality Index has a sharp drop in 2013, going from higher than Iran to on-par with Russia. "This index covers three dimensions: reproductive health, empowerment, and economic status." For comparison, I have included other countries: USA is lower than Russia but higher than Japan, which in turn is higher than South Korea, which by 2015 is on par with Sweden.
I looked at other measurements in Our World In Data, but many of those measurements don't take into account that almost 40% of people in Saudi Arabia are migrant workers, most of whom are men.
However, I am far from convinced that female empowerment is the main cause of the drop in fertility rates.
There is a strong correlation between fertility rate and child mortality rate, and this is likely causal. If you want to eventually have three adult children and each baby is likely to reach adulthood, then you only need to have three babies; but if half of babies die before adulthood, then you better plan to have six babies.
In Saudi Arabia, child mortality starts dropping in the 60's and 70's, and fertility rate start dropping in the 80's. That's the kind of generational delay I would expect: people get used to the fact that kids aren't dying like flies, and adjust accordingly.
The correlation between female empowerment and fertility rate could have the opposite causal explanation: as it became less necessary for women to have lots of babies in order for a few of them to survive to adulthood, the society can empower women to marry later, get more education, and participate more in the labor force.
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This is actually amazing. Shows you that the paranoia of religious conservatives in Islamic countries is not unwarranted. Change happens very fast. One wonders if the reversal can also be done as easily. People may try to bring up Afghanistan as proof that it can, but I am skeptical about how much real change there was outside a small comprador Westernised class in Kabul.
Would also like to note my appreciation of your high-quality comment(s).
In general it seems like people accept extreme religious-conservative ideologies as a way to enforce social order in a ‘basic functionality’ way. I read a report not long ago about the taliban taking territorial control by showing up to schools and hospitals with a list of conditions: censoring textbooks and gender segregated waiting rooms, yes, but also ‘teachers show up and grade papers fairly, or else message us on WhatsApp and we’ll come and beat them’. And I have spoken to missionaries for very conservative sects of Christianity who report that in Latin America, parents are eager to send their girls to religious boarding schools even if they’re far less feminist than they would prefer, because the government is unwilling to do anything about sexual harassment of adolescent girls on roads and buses.
Obviously you can in theory have a system where teachers show up to class and grade work fairly and the bus is safe for adolescent girls without that system being religious-conservative in nature. I mean, that’s more or less how the USA works. But it seems like people would prefer a system where women are veiled and textbooks must be sufficiently Islamic/Christian/whatever to one which lacks those basic things.
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An interesting related aspect: I was watching this interview with the Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman on his Vision 2030 project, basically aimed at propelling Saudi Arabia forward and lessening its dependence on oil (you might have heard of parts of it like NEOM or, most recently, the Line). Right in the opening few minutes, he goes into detail how such a transformation is necessary because (paraphrasing) the Saudi population has grown at such a rapid pace that the living standard secured by fossil fuel wealth is in danger.
He doesn't directly draw a connection to his social reforms, but I was wondering if there might be at least a partial intent there: increase women's liberation, reduce the birth rate, stop his barren desert country from becoming overpopulated.
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