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PaperclipPerfector  18d ago (text post)   1657 thread views

Transnational Thursday for March 20, 2025

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Il take a three to one bet that you're wrong on both counts by the time specified + 2 months. For a what counts as "complete collapse" of eastern ukraine; a thread on the culture war roundup that has at least three known posters stating it as something close enough (with no more than half of those posters changing their mind within one week)

I highly doubt you will agree to these very favourable terms. Hopefully the end result will inspire you to be more critical of your information sources anyway.

For a what counts as "complete collapse" of eastern ukraine

Collapse by it's nature is impossible to time right. The USSR caught by surprise everyone. So did Arab spring. It came to Assad after he had won ... Ukraine collapsing or Russia is both in the cards in any moment. Or even Turkey.

Or even Turkey.

Erdogan was democratically elected.

So was Putin.

Touché.

Still my sense is that Turkey is substantially more democratic than Russia (I haven't heard of Erdogan's opponents being thrown out of windows). I'm no expert though, so will defer to those who are.

We had a university annul Erdogan's main rival's diploma, so by turkish law he can't run in the upcoming elections, also he got him elected. Also erdogan has had constant purges of the judicary, military since he came to power and threw around 30000 people in jail after the coup.

Yeah, sure. That's why I'm not betting 100% on it. I give it 5% odds of it happening personally.

Might want to specify which claims you're counting as counts, since there are more than two involved.

Would recommend a followup in 4 months regardless, though I don't think we have an iRemindMe feature here.

  1. Eastern collapse in 4 (+2) months 2. Belarus mobilization and incursion in September (November).

Big fan of your Ukraine posts! Reddit and here.

Appreciated, though it was something of a new year's resolution to try and post less about it this year.

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