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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   35023 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of March 3, 2025

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"You gave me insufferable provocation. When I wanted to rob you I found you had locked the door."

Strategic policy doesn't spring forth from fresh earth, it is a consequence of strategic context. Finland, the Baltics, Poland and more recently Ukraine have their armies configured primarily to fight a Russian invasion because Russia has a history of invading, and its leader talks about how he could totally invade. Oh look Russia invaded Ukraine and is annexing their territory, again. It's Ukraine's fault, he was coming straight at me, you all saw it.

In the hypothetical where the PRC are invited to the Canadian side of the border: what happened that lead to that point?

In the hypothetical where the PRC are invited to the Canadian side of the border: what happened that lead to that point?

Who gives a damn? Unless the hypothetical is "the PRC and the US have become best friends and the troops are just there to blow kisses" there's no answer to this question that's going to stop the US from perceiving it as a threat, and that's the point.

The US should give a damn, because if it's been sabre rattling its closest neighbour to the point it feels the need for foreign military assistant it should understand that the """threat""" it is facing is a locked door.

And once the US "understands" this, then what? They decide actually thousands of Chinese troops on their border are just dandy? They stop moving any of their own forces around in reaction, and invite China to send over a million more just for fun?

there's no answer to this question that's going to stop the US from perceiving it as a threat, and that's the point.

If you think taking actions Russia would view as threatening is a good idea because they're warmongering bullies who need to be kept in check then fine, but own it. Stop acting like it's crazy that anyone would view having your happy funtime soldiers on their border as a security concern.

What does it matter?

Is there some metaphysical karmic ledger we must balance, or are we allowed to take geopolitical decisions in the here and now in the interest of the living?

All land is stolen land. So what? I still don't want to be blown to smithereens for no reason so borders and control of ressources should reflect actual military power, not ideology.

All this discussion started with my very falsifiable claim that Ukraine surrendering to Russia would increase, not decrease, the threat level for eastern Europe. I'm not sure how you got to the point that there is any metaphysics involved

I'm as puzzled as you are. Because I think that the threat level for Eastern Europe has nothing to do with Russia's historical imperialism or "trust" or any other such fib and everything to do with how relatively weak the European militaries that defend it are.

There is no world where Eastern Europe isn't contested because lest we forget:

Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island; who rules the World-Island commands the world.

But Ireland and Portugal have also a relativemy weak military and they aren't particularly threatened

They're in western Europe.

Mongolia is sandwiched between two big baddies and doesn't feel particularly threatened.

Yeah, and frankly unless Mongolia has nukes they won’t have meaningful independence when completely landlocked by Russia and China. It’s a done deal and all they can do is grovel.

That’s exactly why they’re safe.

Yes I know, that is the point. What in the world makes them secure without a proper army and wouldn't work for Estonia, excepted that none of their neighbours have been imperialistic for decades?

Geography.

Both Ireland and Portugal are at worst the toy of machinations of their closest regional power, the entire world's geopolitical balance doesn't revolve around control of their land.

I'm pretty sure Russian or Chinese nukes in Portugal would have an important effect on the geopolical balance

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