site banner

Transnational Thursday for February 20, 2025

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

2
Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

India imposes direct presidential rule (rather than local elected government) in rebellious state

Following up. The headline is misleading.

The state of Manipur is in the midst of a tribal civil war. It isn't a separatist war. It's between the state's 2 main tribal groups. Certain events sparked the civil war in 2023, but the social tensions were already like dry tinder, ready to pop off. In that sense, the inciting event is less relevant. The incompetent governance that let the issue spiral into a wildfire is pertinent.

For 2 years now, tribal militant groups have killed and raped on opposing sides. Having being called ethno-nationalists before, the center wants to avoid being seen as taking sides on a sub-ethnic conflict. This is a border state (think Puerto Rice), and mainland Indian voters haven't shown concern towards the conflict. So the BJP has let the conflict rage on. Direct interference would only hurt their electoral outcomes.

The center and the state are ruled by the same coalition (BJP-NDA). Once things went haywire, the BJP employed a dual strategy. They let the chief minister (state governor) be a lightning rod for blame, nominally keeping him in power. behind the scenes, they've been running the state through bureaucrats who're attempting to limit damages. Last week's change simply reduces indirection. The only shame is that the BJP didn't do this sooner.


Yunus of deploying terrorists

She's right. But it changes nothing.

Former Bangladeshi PM Hasina accusses Yunus of deploying terrorists, pledges to return and avenge police officers. This seems unlikely, as she doesn't control the state apparatus. However, if she does return, it would lead to wider turmoil in the region.

To be fair, this isn't her first post-coup exile. At least this time her entire family wasn't genocided.