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PaperclipPerfector  6d ago (text post)   2661 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for February 16, 2025

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

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Do you think that Russia and USA are natural allies for the 21st century and that the upcoming Riyadh talks are a first step of it?

G. Friedman, The Next 100 Years (for no particular reason other than I just finished it)

...puts it more like natural enemies, for about as long as he thinks Russia will be a major factor in international politics. Which won't be very long in his opinion. From that point on, it just won't matter much for the US. At no point in the next century does he predict Russia being particularly friendly with the US, not even as an ally against a common enemy.

No…why would they be? I think a security relationship is basically a non-starter, and outside of that, Russia doesn’t really have anything to offer us.

They have absolutely no geopolitical conflicts. The current way of thinking is mostly a relic of the cold war. Especially since the US is getting ahead of Europe and Europe now is like the German confederacy too strong to be easily conquered, but too disorganized to be a threat to anyone. And the US will probably start to view it as a liability soon. China with Russia and Kazakhstan (as my geography teacher called it - a gem of natural resources) is invulnerable. Trade embargoes just doesn't work.

The first cold war was won by the sino soviet split, another Russio-Chinese split could solve the second.

Benefits - better control and exploitation of the soon to be thawed arctic, denial of arctic to the Chinese and encircling of China.

Why do we care about opposing the Chinese, again? They care much less about the West than Russia does, and have a far lesser history of hostility towards us.

I think it's difficult to reason about things like this. AI, for example, is so disruptive that any predictions post 2030 feel impossible.

When it comes to predictions, I think simple methods are best. And therefore, no, the US and Russia are unlikely to be allies in the future because they have not been allies in the past.

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