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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   9353 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of February 10, 2025

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It means becoming like a Latin American country in terms of racial demographics, standard of living, general texture of the social fabric, etc.

The actions of Trump on immigration and Doge on the budget will set the Brazilification project back by at least a decade, or indefinitely as long as the Republicans can keep winning elections.

Consider that immigration under Biden 2 would have been something like +15 million and under Trump it will probably be negative.

Similarly, there is hope on the budget. A return to 2019 spending would mean a $500 billion budget surplus. While that's not possible due to inflation, the era of mega deficits only started in 2020. We can and will go back to a more reasonable 3% deficit/GDP. When we do, interest rates will fall, reducing our borrowing costs and further reducing the deficit.

Similarly, there is hope on the budget. A return to 2019 spending would mean a $500 billion budget surplus. While that's not possible due to inflation, the era of mega deficits only started in 2020. We can and will go back to a more reasonable 3% deficit/GDP. When we do, interest rates will fall, reducing our borrowing costs and further reducing the deficit.

Actual question- where's the extra spending? Totally understandable that the deficit exploded in 2020 and 2021 due to stimulus packages but those aren't going on anymore. Is it just social security increases due to population aging?

A decent chunk is also interest expense

Yes. And this is what makes the problem more tractable than it may seem at first. If we can get the budget under control, interest rates will come down, which creates a virtuous cycle.

Check out the IRA budget. I haven't even started to wrap my head around the scale of it. It's literally all the crazy "green new deal" stuff they ever asked for. I see articles from WA green groups about how they can't spend all the money.

Consider that immigration under Biden 2 would have been something like +15 million and under Trump it will probably be negative.

It's unclear that Trump can even deport all of the people Biden let in.

Oh, he can't. There's no question about that. The Biden Wave was unprecedented and terrible.

But I think net immigration will be negative for the next 4 years. If Biden had got a second term, that would have resulted in a second Biden Wave and put us firmly on the path towards a Third World future.

I was hoping you were referring to the dystopian movie Brazil, written by written by Terry Gilliam, Charles McKeown, and Tom Stoppard.

I assume this is exaggerating for effect? The US has way too much going for it in comparison to Brazil, from geography to demographics to the structure of their economy, for something like this to happen in the forseeable future.

geography

Sure, the continental US is a valuable piece of land. But as the saying goes, there’s no magic dirt.

demographics

For now. But you have to look at the trend line.

the structure of their economy

Ultimately dependent on and a product of demographics. A high quality population produces high quality conditions, and vice versa.

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