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Notes -
Registering a series of Texas specific predictions-
Republicans win every statewide office and every competitive local race, including federal house- 70%. I count federal house districts 15 and 34 as competitive, along with the Tarrant and Harris county judgeships. I do not count the Dallas county judge race as competitive.
Republicans have enough of a majority in the house that Dade Phelan is in serious danger of losing the speakership- 60%.
Cuellar loses reelection- 25%
No statewide Republican has less than a 9% margin of victory- 90%.
Abbott beats Beto- 99%.
Paxton beats Garza- 90%.
Democrats claim vote rigging centered around Harris county- 40%.
Harris county elections monitors do anything to justify their presence- 25%.
Republicans win a higher percentage of the Hispanic vote than 2014- 50%.
Federal investigation into Harris county elections monitoring- 20%.
Tarrant county goes red at the top of the ticket(all three of governor, county judge, and prosecutor)- 55%.
Harris county goes red in at least one statewide race- 50%.
Paxton is the lowest performing statewide Republican- 60%.
Beto wins less than 40%- 30%.
Hard to imagine him doing that bad but I guess the polls allow that in the margin of error.
That’s why it’s only 30%.
I would take the bet at those odds.
You pay 30 if above 40% I pay 70 if below.
Not saying you're incorrectly calibrated.
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Notability threshold for claim of vote rigging- a statewide candidate, the statewide party, Lina Hidalgo, editorial board of a major dem-aligned newspaper(Texas monthly, Texas tribune, or Houston Chronicle), US house member from Harris County, or high ranking democrat(committee chair/former committee chair) in the state house.
Harris county elections monitors doing anything would entail a criminal complaint being filed, recount specific to a precinct or precincts, or an election-related case going to the courts that would change the outcome of at least one election.
I’ll also clarify the speakership prediction- Dade Phelan will be considered to have a serious challenger if there is a speaker candidate with support from at least 20 House of Representatives members who is a republican.
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