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Transnational Thursday for February 6, 2025

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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I think the firewall around the AFD will break, one way or another. If it doesnt happen this time, their votes just keep growing. Weve had this experience two-and-a-half times now with our Austrian right-populists, and frankly I hope the right-right coalition talks work out. Im sympathetic to the FPÖ, but Kickl has in many ways set himself up to fail to govern, and itll only get worse if he gets a better bargaining position. I dont know how the details here play out with the AfD, but this is the sort of thing Id be thinking about.

The other thing is coalitions. From those polling numbers it looks like CDU+AfD or CDU+medium+small are possible, but all within the margin of error. So I would think about which of those coalitions you want to be possible, and who will best balance out the CDU once they compromise.