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Harm to whom, exactly? Good to whom, exactly? Think about it: you're putting avoiding harm to the criminal above the well-being of his victim.
I see people say things like that, and, frankly, I find it mind-boggling.
First, this is so contrary to all human instincts and experience, that it would take some extraordinary evidence to compel me to take it seriously. Somehow, my children are deterred from committing "crime" against me by threat of punishment. I am deterred from committing crime by the threat of punishment -- for example, I feel extreme urge to smack the shit out of the street hobos that aggressively accost me, and the main reason I don't is because I know that the law will protect the menacing hobos and destroy me for it. I can come up with more examples like that.
Given that I, and many people I know are deterred by threat of punishment, the only way punishment could not act as a deterrent is if encouraged some people to commit crime. I don't believe this is plausible.
Second, this statement, even if it was true (which it is not), it is cleverly crafted to distract from the main argument for punishment as we practice it: it doesn't need to act as a deterrent in order to do the job you want it to do, which is to prevent future crime. Indeed, all it needs to do is to incapacitate the criminal, and it does so tremendously. Criminals who are in jail cannot victimize people outside of jail, and dead criminals are even less capable of victimizing anyone. This means that executing criminals is a good way to prevent crime, even if literally nobody is deterred from committing crime by the threat of capital punishment.
I think you forgot to mention what problem is created by retribution. The only one I can think of is suffering of the criminal, which I see as a benefit, not a negative.
This is just a tautology: a better solution is better.
Few cases involve any publicity. In most cases, nobody cares about people close to victim and to the perpetrator. These form a small society.
I linked an ACX article a couple times. It's a good overview. If you disagree with it I would love to know why.
I should be more clear: harsher punishment is not a deterent. Getting caught and punished generally is a deterent. Increasing a sentence is not. That makes sense for many reasons (criminals are worse at risk management, passionate crimes, crimes of opportunity where the criminal doesn't believe he will be caught, social pressures).
I agree that putting criminals in prison is the best way to prevent crime.
Cost and benefit is in terms of society as whole. It isn't free to punish people, just as it isn't free to repair a road. It costs money to detain people, or otherwise punish them. It costs money to have a police force and arrest people. Crime also costs money. The simple way of framing it: does it cost society more money to detain a criminal (easier to calculate), or deal with their crime (very difficult to calculate)? That's a cold calculus, but it's a starting point. I think you would agree that punishment clearly has diminishing returns after a certain point. Locking someone up for minor theft for 20 years costs more money than the theft is worth.
If I may, you’re giving the 101 argument which many people here already know and have moved past. Wlxd has very likely read that ACX article, and still thinks prison sentences should be increased. I’m a utilitarian and I agree. Forget deterrence, just incapacitate as much and as cheaply as possible. It is more expensive to catch & try more criminals to give them small sentences than to simply increase the sentences on those already processed.
The marginal extra year in prison of violent offenders costs society far less than the crimes they would commit during that time. And that's despite our incapacitation method costing society far more than it should. We should bring back marooning, penal colonies and exile.
You have a consistent stance. I do not know what Wlxd thinks, I was just answering his questions.
This seems entirely dependent on the criminal and the crimes they might commit, not to mention where they live/are incarcerated.
That last part is interesting. This map claims it costs 128k/y to incarcerate someone in california, 23k in arkansas (and 300k in massachussets, wtf). I’d just start by sending all the long-timers down there. Reinvigorate the local economy and save everyone else vast amounts of money.
77% of state prisoners who were released in 2005 were rearrested by 2010. 43% of them ended up back inside prison within the first 12 months.
The thing that strikes me about this statistic is that they must either be committing lots of crimes, or the police is very good at solving crimes. They should stop being so sporting by releasing and re-catching and retrying them, just keep them where they belong longer.
Or some criminals are easier to catch, or criminals are easier to catch after they have been involved with the justice system. From what I can tell, the latter is the most accurate, because the arrest statistics include parole and probation violations.
It seems like this:
is the best indication of how successful a prisoner will be going back to society, and also who you would want to keep in prison for a long time. To me, that supports punishment increases after recidivism, not intense sentences for the first crime committed.
I don't know that the different states would be so willing to cooperate like that, regardless of political difference. But I guess there are potential incentives.
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Yeah, I can believe that increasing a sentence from 5 to 20 years might not have a huge effect on people who commit the kinds of crimes that get you 5 years in prison, but I don't see it as relevant. First, it's good for the victims to inflict more retribution on criminals, and second, as the ACX article you mention clearly shows, it would prevent a lot of future crime too.
Yes, and the cost of crime in American society is tremendous. It's so high, in fact, that it would be extremely hard for government spending on crime prevention to come even close to it. We actually spend trivial amounts of money on law enforcement and justice system.
There are diminishing returns, but whether they exceed the cost in your 20 years for minor theft example is far from obvious. In fact, the way you phrase it, comparing the cost of imprisonment to just the direct cost of the theft, suggests that you either don't understand the arguments being made, or are trying to pull a fast one. You also need to include in the benefits column things like crime prevented by incapacitating for 20 years the kind of a person who'd engage in petty theft even when it risks 20 years in jail. That kind of a person is highly likely to cause enough violence, property damage, and cost to the system to make up for the 20 years of imprisonment.
In my country it costs about $150000 per year to keep someone in prison. To imprison someone for 20 years would cost $3 million. The average theft incident here is under $2000. Assuming a $2000 cost average, that means someone could commit theft 1500 times before a 20 year sentence would be worthwhile. Or flipped around, is it possible for the average thief to commit theft 1500 times in 20 years? This clearly seems like a waste of resources.
I am not trying to pull a fast one. Can you explain?
So spend less on that, it’s not hard. There is no reason it has to cost this much. I can guarantee you that 70 years ago, it didn’t cost (inflation adjusted) $150k. I strongly suspect that the main reason it does is because pro-criminal activists demand certain things that jack up the cost, and then use that to argue that prisons are too expensive.
I explained in next sentence: comparing prison cost to damage of a single theft that resulted in the conviction is clearly wrong and misleading.
I don't understand why that can't be the starting point. Beyond that, what factors would you include?
Prison statistics in my country do not go that far back, unfortunately. The oldest statistics are only from 2000, but the cost per prisoner is almost the exact same when you account for inflation. Beyond prison conditions, I would guess other factors like guard salary and construction are almost certainly higher as well (based on things in the rest of the country) I don't know that imprisoning more people would help in those regards.
I explained it in the next sentence after wondering if you’re not trying to pull a fast one. Are you sure you aren’t?
OK, where is it? I’m having a hard time believing that your costs are an order of magnitude higher than everyone else’s.
A typical inmate to officer ration in US prison is somewhere between 5 and 12. Let’s take the lowest figure. You spend $75k on correctional officer salary (actually your country almost certainly spends much less than that), which is $15k per prisoner. You’re left with $135k per prisoner per year. What could possibly cost that much?
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Are those criminals net taxpayers or net welfare recievers? That is, how much would they cost you if they weren't imprisoned?
The maximum welfare someone can receive here is is about $26000 for being a single parent with a child. That is still $124000 net cost per year for incarceration, or $2.48 million per 20 years (about 1240 thefts of $2000 value).
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